Inverted Yield Curve Monitor: US 3-month versus 10-Year Treasury

Updated

This is an analysis of the US "3-month Treasury" versus the "10-Year Treasury". This is monitored by some analysts that are looking for potential "Inverted Yield Curves". It may be best not to explain the detailed reasoning, but one can always research the "possible" expected results from the correlation between the two and the phrase "Inverted Yield Curve".

At the time of writing, 2022-08-30, it appears that the "3-month Treasury" is still increasing well above the "10-month Treasury"; which may not be a favorable outcome in 3 to 24 months. However, this is never a solid guarantee. The "PRFOSC" indicator (displayed at the base of the chart) is currently reflecting the "3-month Treasury" is still expected to increase in the very short-term.

However, an non-indicator economic analysis may argue that the "3-month Treasury" "may" start to decrease after peaking above the "10-year Treasury". The peak may be relatively flat for the "3-month Treasury" for a short duration. Most importantly, at an estimated 3 to 24 months from the point when the "3-month Treasury" peaks and begins to decrease (above the "10-year Treasury") there may be a possible slowdown in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Meaning around 2022-11 to 2023-03 to around 2024-09 at the very latest; based off of the time of writing this analysis.

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US "3-month Treasury" (daily) & "1-month Treasury" (daily) still increasing above the "10-year Treasury" (daily). No signs of decline (DGS3MO & DGS1MO).

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This chart below has the SQQQ added to it to compare the shifts at key points in time.

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This is a zoomed in view below of the SQQQ for the 2020 recession:

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Published by Day0 (not while signed in):

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2-month; BTC; & 1-Month (on 3 separate panels)

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Reminder: Diesel fuel expect to run out on 2022-11-19 in US & Europe. Perhaps, this shortage maybe felt [empty] at the diesel pumps around 2022-12-12. Check news & energy departments for updates.

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1-Month Treasury may decrease around 2024-01 to 2026-01

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News: "Economist Harry Dent Expects Biggest Crash in Our Lifetime"
" Bitcoin may go down more like 95%, 96%. Dent expects the crypto market may crash alongside stocks, with BTC falling up to 95%-96% from its November 2021 high. "

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"Aug 30, 2022 Reminder":
"At the time of writing, 2022-08-30, it appears that the "3-month Treasury" is still increasing well above the "10-month Treasury"; which may not be a favorable outcome in 3 to 24 months"... "Meaning around 2022-11 to 2023-03 to around 2024-09 at the very latest; based off of the time of writing this analysis. "

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This is a nice debt-to-GDP chart (make note):

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"Aug 30, 2022 Reminder":
"may not be a favorable outcome"... "2022-11 to 2023-03 to around 2024-09 at the very latest".

For the other topic of common economic measurements: best ETA 2024-01 to 2024-03 for the onset. There should be more visibility by those dates. By 2024-09 there should be greater visibility. It seems as 2025-01 to 2025-03 may have even more economic visibility.

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1-Month Treasury (DGS1MO) Measured in CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ) and also in CFDs on WTI Crude Oil (USOIL):

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1-day data chart:
(click to play)
Recession Monitor

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credit card debt crisis
(click to play)

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1W SPX/M2SL; DGS1MO/DGS10; DGS2/DGS10 RECESSION MONITOR
(click to play)

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CAUTION: DECLINE IS ACTIVE. MONITOR FOR INCREASE (IMPROVEMENT).

day0

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