Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
Updated
On trading social media, Disney has been the target of moonboys for quite a while.
For some reason, whenever a stock is in a landslide and doesn't go up, everyone gets it in their head that they're going to BUY THE CALLS and catch the next MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZES.
And this is because you want to gamble on a single day candle, which results in you blowing your account, and then you stop using TradingView and can't have fun anymore.
Disney, fundamentally, is a company that may not have any future whatsoever in a society that returns to mankind's traditions.
For so many years, it has been pushing a warped and depraved culture at both its parks and via its broadcasting networks. It was even an entertainment industry leader in onboarding the Chinese Communist Party's Zero-COVID social credit edicts.
And this is a problem if you want to get long.
They always say "zoom out," and so let's look at yearly candles:
8 months of price action for 2023 so far indicates that we've probably just been painting the wick portion of a year that will break the 2020 COVID low.
And the first place you find support below the COVID low is at $40.
"Sure, sure. But it's Disney. It's the stock market. EVERYONE KNOWS it's going up. Bears always get #rekt LOL."
"Bear flags" and "bull flags" are astrology and don't exist. But what does exist is when an equity spends more than a year in an area it should have bounced from and simply doesn't go up, which is what we see on the monthly.
But the contrary, on the Weekly, there is a problem for bears, which is the August of '22 high at $126.
And so there is a potential that tomorrow's earnings call actually results in a raid to $80 that actually produces a bullish buying opportunity with a target of $126.
The problem is, the "JPM Collar" has the world's most significant bank long on SPX 4,200 puts that expire September 29 that have literally been under water every second of every day since they were bought at the end of Q2.
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
However, I note in my recent SPX call:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And a recent Nasdaq call
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?
With CPI pending on Thursday morning, what happens tomorrow is really significant.
That although I suspect our index tops to get raided, the problem is, are you going to see $40+ on Disney in a time frame of less than 3 weeks?
September is likely to be something of a "chilly autumn" for equities markets with the way everything is set up, including the SOXS bear semiconductor ETF and the VIX.
If there's to be anymore rally, that rally may only come in Q4.
And thus, that would mean for Disney that a likely scenario would be a raid on the lows from earnings and even more bearish consolidation, with the $126 target being left for the beginning of Q4.
This stock is a lot like Verizon and T-Mobile. It's better left not bothered with until it starts to show you signs that a bank or a fund really wants to rip it bigly in one direction or the other.
There's lower hanging fruit and greener pastures out there to trade.
For some reason, whenever a stock is in a landslide and doesn't go up, everyone gets it in their head that they're going to BUY THE CALLS and catch the next MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZES.
And this is because you want to gamble on a single day candle, which results in you blowing your account, and then you stop using TradingView and can't have fun anymore.
Disney, fundamentally, is a company that may not have any future whatsoever in a society that returns to mankind's traditions.
For so many years, it has been pushing a warped and depraved culture at both its parks and via its broadcasting networks. It was even an entertainment industry leader in onboarding the Chinese Communist Party's Zero-COVID social credit edicts.
And this is a problem if you want to get long.
They always say "zoom out," and so let's look at yearly candles:
8 months of price action for 2023 so far indicates that we've probably just been painting the wick portion of a year that will break the 2020 COVID low.
And the first place you find support below the COVID low is at $40.
"Sure, sure. But it's Disney. It's the stock market. EVERYONE KNOWS it's going up. Bears always get #rekt LOL."
"Bear flags" and "bull flags" are astrology and don't exist. But what does exist is when an equity spends more than a year in an area it should have bounced from and simply doesn't go up, which is what we see on the monthly.
But the contrary, on the Weekly, there is a problem for bears, which is the August of '22 high at $126.
And so there is a potential that tomorrow's earnings call actually results in a raid to $80 that actually produces a bullish buying opportunity with a target of $126.
The problem is, the "JPM Collar" has the world's most significant bank long on SPX 4,200 puts that expire September 29 that have literally been under water every second of every day since they were bought at the end of Q2.
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
However, I note in my recent SPX call:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And a recent Nasdaq call
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?
With CPI pending on Thursday morning, what happens tomorrow is really significant.
That although I suspect our index tops to get raided, the problem is, are you going to see $40+ on Disney in a time frame of less than 3 weeks?
September is likely to be something of a "chilly autumn" for equities markets with the way everything is set up, including the SOXS bear semiconductor ETF and the VIX.
If there's to be anymore rally, that rally may only come in Q4.
And thus, that would mean for Disney that a likely scenario would be a raid on the lows from earnings and even more bearish consolidation, with the $126 target being left for the beginning of Q4.
This stock is a lot like Verizon and T-Mobile. It's better left not bothered with until it starts to show you signs that a bank or a fund really wants to rip it bigly in one direction or the other.
There's lower hanging fruit and greener pastures out there to trade.
Note
Early in the day, but for Disney it could be a double driver, whatever direction it goes, with CPI on deck tomorrow morning as well.While it ranges and chops around, I feel it's very difficult to predict what it will do, if anything, and if there's a trade, it's much better to wait until after the IV wears off from the earnings reaction.
Note
Here's what "The Pump" looks like on daily bars.More or less with IV inflation because of earnings, longs probably won't make very much and will especially have to sell on open if CPI pumps the market.
Note
Two notable areas to watch for reversals on Disney:Bad time to be greedy in these markets.
Note
No, friends. When something is continually making new lows, it's not an opportunity to buy the dip.Instead you'd want to sell the green candles after the dumps.
Q4 is probably the only bounce thesis for anything in the markets now.
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