US 30 Bearish Gartley Near Completion - Closeup Personal View
Updated
Starts to look like US 30 might fill the pattern in this bearish Gartley model after all.
After 3 days of hard selling, pressure may abate and we ought to get a lift off the pivot at 26000, we saw strong resilience in US 30 over past sessions. In past two days, pattern of fierce selling relieved by bargain hunting in the afternoon. It appears that rotation is moving funds out of NAS & Sand P into US 30, which rose modestly on both Wednesday and Thursday, show of divergence in face of sharp declines in other indexes. -> "Flight to Quality" - seeking blue chips.
RUT selling off, Sand P selling sharply then late day bargain hunting. Sand P has come down to support at its 20day moving average, and I expect it to bounce from here as well. Probably prudent to cover shorts if you're hoping for more bleeding, might be done for a while.
US 30 is poised to move up the last leg to complete its Gartley pattern, see in chart how US 30 flight path is pointed straight at Fibonacci 1.618 from B-D?! NB: The trendline reaching back to Apr/Jun peaks intersects precisely at Gartley 'D' - coincidence? Perhaps...
A final drive up to R3 will complete the pattern- only a measly 270 points north, could get easily there on one bullish Monday!
Pulling money out of FANGs to move into Dow will do it.
The pattern suggests a new lower high on/about Tuesday 11 September for US 30, unless bad surprise over weekend. After that- the big slide into the Zig-zag.
I'm getting pretty excited thinking about the Big Short...!
As always, this isn't investment advice, it's a fun post for education, enjoy it, and FGS be Carefull!
After 3 days of hard selling, pressure may abate and we ought to get a lift off the pivot at 26000, we saw strong resilience in US 30 over past sessions. In past two days, pattern of fierce selling relieved by bargain hunting in the afternoon. It appears that rotation is moving funds out of NAS & Sand P into US 30, which rose modestly on both Wednesday and Thursday, show of divergence in face of sharp declines in other indexes. -> "Flight to Quality" - seeking blue chips.
RUT selling off, Sand P selling sharply then late day bargain hunting. Sand P has come down to support at its 20day moving average, and I expect it to bounce from here as well. Probably prudent to cover shorts if you're hoping for more bleeding, might be done for a while.
US 30 is poised to move up the last leg to complete its Gartley pattern, see in chart how US 30 flight path is pointed straight at Fibonacci 1.618 from B-D?! NB: The trendline reaching back to Apr/Jun peaks intersects precisely at Gartley 'D' - coincidence? Perhaps...
A final drive up to R3 will complete the pattern- only a measly 270 points north, could get easily there on one bullish Monday!
Pulling money out of FANGs to move into Dow will do it.
The pattern suggests a new lower high on/about Tuesday 11 September for US 30, unless bad surprise over weekend. After that- the big slide into the Zig-zag.
I'm getting pretty excited thinking about the Big Short...!
As always, this isn't investment advice, it's a fun post for education, enjoy it, and FGS be Carefull!
Trade active
Trump crushed the rally Friday with another perfectly timed tweet. Could try again Mon/Tues but seems unlikely to reach the 26268 price now.
See my latest post for deeper analysis.
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Yay again @Donald. You tweeter! Yay put holding in tweet-driven flashcrashes. Again stomped the rally before completing the Gartly pattern, perhaps on Monday, eh?! See my related post for more details on why 26200 in 2018 = 27260 in 2017 Dow points. We are at a capitalization-adjusted all-time high right now!
Also noticed this Gartley is drawn off the wicks of candles. A pattern drawn from candle bodies using high closing prices did in fact complete at 26200 on 9/14.
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