DJI Recession Pattern
Alright, it is time. Please note this is not trade advise. I am genuinely concerned about this recession. Short and hard. The duration appears to be reducing over the past two business cycles, which is good I think? With respect to the duration of the recession, the financial engineering by the central banks has worked, for reducing the duration only. The underlying problem is still there. Back to the charts, my general observation with respect to longevity/duration of the business cycles:
-1999 business cycle looked like a 50/50 (expansion time/contraction time)
-2008 business cycle looked like a 75/25
-2020 business cycle may end up being 87/13, thus hypothesizing the bottom around election time 2020.
In general, I expect another radical financial-engineered solution, that may or may not solve the problem. If banks can unleash Nostro/Vostro fiat money tied up in dormant accounts, then the business cycle could rebound quickly.
These are my thoughts, I really don't read comments as I just use this for my own investment framework process. Everything is subject to change at any given moment, so pay attention.
-1999 business cycle looked like a 50/50 (expansion time/contraction time)
-2008 business cycle looked like a 75/25
-2020 business cycle may end up being 87/13, thus hypothesizing the bottom around election time 2020.
In general, I expect another radical financial-engineered solution, that may or may not solve the problem. If banks can unleash Nostro/Vostro fiat money tied up in dormant accounts, then the business cycle could rebound quickly.
These are my thoughts, I really don't read comments as I just use this for my own investment framework process. Everything is subject to change at any given moment, so pay attention.
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