Elliott Wave B subwave 3 forming short squeeze
Updated
Big downdraft from 25402 -> 24407 knocked 1395 pts off Dow for correction wave A.
Reaction wave B ongoing now completed subwave 1(up), 2 (down) with the green hammer Doji Monday. Shown in more detail in this idea.
Subwave 3 can carry index as high as 24686 before Wave 4 reaction retraces, possibly as low as 24440, but not below subwave 1 top.
Subwave 5 can carry index as high as 24948 on Fibo 0.618 retrace but higher unlikely given strong R at 25k. Possible lower high on 13 July.
Once subwave 5 completes, the bullish impulse will exhaust and Main Correction Wave C will begin another downdraft to around 21800, possibly lower.
Reaction wave B ongoing now completed subwave 1(up), 2 (down) with the green hammer Doji Monday. Shown in more detail in this idea.
Subwave 3 can carry index as high as 24686 before Wave 4 reaction retraces, possibly as low as 24440, but not below subwave 1 top.
Subwave 5 can carry index as high as 24948 on Fibo 0.618 retrace but higher unlikely given strong R at 25k. Possible lower high on 13 July.
Once subwave 5 completes, the bullish impulse will exhaust and Main Correction Wave C will begin another downdraft to around 21800, possibly lower.
Trade active
After I drew this model the closing price for 7/03 ended up exactly at the #2 marked on this chart. So as discouraging as it is to get beared down on every rally, the projection called for subwave 2 to end just about where we find it. Subwave 3 might start as early as Thursday post-US holiday. This market is volatile and could snap down suddenly any day but it's very risky to short into this wave B, especially if subwave B(3) gains bullish momentum. I also noticed a converging triangle with price wicks from last 3 highs and 3 lows forming an arrowhead. These can break either way and often do form a continuation of the trend (down here) but absent any further news shocks, could bode an upside breakout. Good luck!Trade closed manually
I closed this position and took stop loss after failure to rally and successive lower highs past week with today's rally even more dismal than Tuesday 3 July. It's a bull pennant and running out of time fast. See updated idea in next post. EWT failed. It happens.Trade active
Well looks like we're back on for an upside breakout from the box; hesitated to call this earlier but looks like they're going to buy more, at least this week. Puts us into Elliott 3rd subwave of B correction reactive wave finally materializing. Look for Dow 248 maybe a bit higher to enter shorts. Wave C still coming later in the month.Trade active
Bulling it up over 248 soon let's see how high it gets before we start shortingTrade closed: target reached
Yeah closed out the calls and rolled into puts and the Donald popped new tariffs overnight- better to be lucky than good gonna be a wild ride now peeps!
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