DJIA Dow Jones - Market Cycles LESSON TWO - Studying 2 cycles
Updated
Lesson Two
The market is more predictable that we have been led to believe.
We will now study the effects of both the 17 year half-cycle and the 9 year half-cycle which are occurring at the same time.
There are many other cycles or sine-waves occurring in DJIA and in other markets as well, but for now we will just focus on these two cycles.
Please see the Lesson One link below for an introduction to how market cycles work.
As I said in the other ideas, the Green line occurs at the trough (low-point) of the cycle and the Red Line occurs at the peak of the cycle. The GREEN ZONE is the period starting at the GREEN LINE to the red line. The RED ZONE starts at the RED LINE and goes to the GREEN LiNE. Growth is strongest in the GREEN ZONE, especially at the end of the green zone. Growth is weakest during the RED ZONE, especially at the end of the RED ZONE.
With TWO CYCLES, there are Green zones and Red Zones. When it is a time period where both cycles are GREEN ZONES, GROWTH is the strongest. When one is red and one is Green, the forces counteract each other. When both zones are RED, growth is the weakest and corrections are stronger.
All of the cycles are still part of a very long term growing economic cycle. It's hard to calculate when this long-term cycle began due to lack of data in the 1700s and 1800s. So due to that, it is hard to know when this long-term cycle will end. But this long-term growth cycle is what keeps the markets overall moving up, despite various corrections.
In this chart the SOLID GREEN Lines are the green lines from the 17 year cycle. The 17 year cycle is stronger, but it takes longer to complete. The DOTTED Lines are the 9 year (approx) cycle which I showed you on the Nasdaq. This 9 year cycle also fits the DOW, I suppose because they are both US Stock market indexes.
You can see how these cycles interact with each other. Growth is stronger when both cycles are green. The DOT.COM Bubble burst after both the 17 year GREEN cycle and the 9 Year Green cycle ended around the same time. They both went into a RED cycle until 2009 where the 9 year cycle became GREEN. The 17 year cycle did not become green until 2016, and afterwards the market growth really picked up. Now we are approaching the end of the GREEN 9 year cycle which ends around November 2018. Stay with my ideas and will will try to calculate shorter cycles to determine where the current market peak is going to end.
I think it points to a recession coming, maybe 2019. But due to the 17 year green cycle, it probably won't be end-of-the-world type market crashes. The 9 year cycle will be red until 2028 where it turns green. The 17 year cycle is green until 2033. There is still the possibility of doing something like the predepression bubble after 2028 when both cycles are green at the same time. Even if not like that, it is likely to have a bubble of some sort after 2028 due to both cycles being green.
Please click like if like the idea. Give comments or questions for clarifications how two cycles interact together. I hope I have explained this well enough.
Stay tuned, we will try to focus on a closer cycle to see if we can get a more accurate time period for a market top in 2018.
The market is more predictable that we have been led to believe.
We will now study the effects of both the 17 year half-cycle and the 9 year half-cycle which are occurring at the same time.
There are many other cycles or sine-waves occurring in DJIA and in other markets as well, but for now we will just focus on these two cycles.
Please see the Lesson One link below for an introduction to how market cycles work.
As I said in the other ideas, the Green line occurs at the trough (low-point) of the cycle and the Red Line occurs at the peak of the cycle. The GREEN ZONE is the period starting at the GREEN LINE to the red line. The RED ZONE starts at the RED LINE and goes to the GREEN LiNE. Growth is strongest in the GREEN ZONE, especially at the end of the green zone. Growth is weakest during the RED ZONE, especially at the end of the RED ZONE.
With TWO CYCLES, there are Green zones and Red Zones. When it is a time period where both cycles are GREEN ZONES, GROWTH is the strongest. When one is red and one is Green, the forces counteract each other. When both zones are RED, growth is the weakest and corrections are stronger.
All of the cycles are still part of a very long term growing economic cycle. It's hard to calculate when this long-term cycle began due to lack of data in the 1700s and 1800s. So due to that, it is hard to know when this long-term cycle will end. But this long-term growth cycle is what keeps the markets overall moving up, despite various corrections.
In this chart the SOLID GREEN Lines are the green lines from the 17 year cycle. The 17 year cycle is stronger, but it takes longer to complete. The DOTTED Lines are the 9 year (approx) cycle which I showed you on the Nasdaq. This 9 year cycle also fits the DOW, I suppose because they are both US Stock market indexes.
You can see how these cycles interact with each other. Growth is stronger when both cycles are green. The DOT.COM Bubble burst after both the 17 year GREEN cycle and the 9 Year Green cycle ended around the same time. They both went into a RED cycle until 2009 where the 9 year cycle became GREEN. The 17 year cycle did not become green until 2016, and afterwards the market growth really picked up. Now we are approaching the end of the GREEN 9 year cycle which ends around November 2018. Stay with my ideas and will will try to calculate shorter cycles to determine where the current market peak is going to end.
I think it points to a recession coming, maybe 2019. But due to the 17 year green cycle, it probably won't be end-of-the-world type market crashes. The 9 year cycle will be red until 2028 where it turns green. The 17 year cycle is green until 2033. There is still the possibility of doing something like the predepression bubble after 2028 when both cycles are green at the same time. Even if not like that, it is likely to have a bubble of some sort after 2028 due to both cycles being green.
Please click like if like the idea. Give comments or questions for clarifications how two cycles interact together. I hope I have explained this well enough.
Stay tuned, we will try to focus on a closer cycle to see if we can get a more accurate time period for a market top in 2018.
Note
Link to Lesson One:
Note
Link to Nasdaq Chart
Note
Link to BTC chart
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.