Hanging man doji in dow?
I've been underwhelmed with my ability to use candlestick logic, but this looks like a "hanging man doji", a bearish reversal. supposedly, a strong red candle down tomorrow will confirm.
markets are wound so tight right now, its unbelievable. i trade primarily vix, and now even a 3 point move down will get a healthy uptick in vol. not only that, vol also rallies with new ATHs.. unless down tomorrow substantially, vol should be cheap somewhere near the end of the day, people dont want the theta over the weekend.
i personally like to be long on weekends, as i think when this thing actually pops, the market will open 3% down..
bearish signs:
1. recent ATHs have been with majority of stocks in the index under their 50 dma.
2. low volume upticks with 'smart money" not participating in this latest rally
3. dollar continues to drift higher, even though the "inflation" meme is everywhere
4. 20-30 year also moving higher, putting more doubt on inflation, more credibility to delfationary shock
5. PMs still down. doesnt fit with inflation.
6. commodities off highs (except oil)
7. bitcoin and alts retesting recent lows
8. dji has broken out of its trendline set since 3/20, the first to really break it. s/p did last week briefly, but PPT came to the rescue.
9. plunge in chinese credit impulse
10. retail buying at 94th percentile
11. junk bonds trading at 4%!
12. wed. reverse repo madness 991Billion!
13. CAPE ratio second highest reading ever, second only to dot.com
it goes on and on..
happy trading!
markets are wound so tight right now, its unbelievable. i trade primarily vix, and now even a 3 point move down will get a healthy uptick in vol. not only that, vol also rallies with new ATHs.. unless down tomorrow substantially, vol should be cheap somewhere near the end of the day, people dont want the theta over the weekend.
i personally like to be long on weekends, as i think when this thing actually pops, the market will open 3% down..
bearish signs:
1. recent ATHs have been with majority of stocks in the index under their 50 dma.
2. low volume upticks with 'smart money" not participating in this latest rally
3. dollar continues to drift higher, even though the "inflation" meme is everywhere
4. 20-30 year also moving higher, putting more doubt on inflation, more credibility to delfationary shock
5. PMs still down. doesnt fit with inflation.
6. commodities off highs (except oil)
7. bitcoin and alts retesting recent lows
8. dji has broken out of its trendline set since 3/20, the first to really break it. s/p did last week briefly, but PPT came to the rescue.
9. plunge in chinese credit impulse
10. retail buying at 94th percentile
11. junk bonds trading at 4%!
12. wed. reverse repo madness 991Billion!
13. CAPE ratio second highest reading ever, second only to dot.com
it goes on and on..
happy trading!
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