US 30 Bear Flag near breakdown of complex ZigZag ABC Pattern
Updated
For months I have struggled to make Elliott wave theory fit this Bear Flag rising channel but although 5 wave impulses appear within the channel, it is not itself a motive impulse, but rather, it is a complex, 7 or 9 multi-wave zig-zag flat corrective pattern "A-B-C". It also contains WXY components which we recently observed press index under 25000, as well as countertrend ABCDE reactionary 5 part wave and many other minuette and subminuette patterns, omitted here for clarity.
I have read other wave theorists charts and the common approach seems to be trying to impose a 5 wave motive impulse pattern onto this chart, which simply doesn't fit.
It won't fit, because the market is not in a primary motive impulse; it is in a large-scale primary flat correction, which is countertrend to the previous bullish trend.
The entier channel we've been riding since April is the B wave. It's near termination now; this is a Bear Flag continuation pattern expected to move down again.
Once I recognized this, the reactionary corrective wave patterns fit perfectly with no fudging required. Notice the respect for Fibo and channel limits in these waves.
The two flashcrashes we had 2 + 15 August have created a new formation in chart: the rising wedge, another ominous pattern to go with a Bearish Gartley (see link) and bearish divergence in the indices and also within this index.
The flat, or Zig-Zag correction, is a lateral movement initiated by a powerful, panic-style A wave, which we saw in February, followed by a lengthy, complex, oscillating sine-wave B that carries index nearly to or equal to the prior high. In US 30 we see current price on 8/20 resting on the trendline, and also reaching back on a perfect parallel to a nearly .786 Fibo with 26 Feb reactionary high coming off the primary A wave. All this bodes ill, because:
Once the B wave completes at/near the price of origin, a steep, sharp C wave carries the index back down to the low price at bottom of the A wave. So after months of churning you end up right back where you started - twice. This is a vicious and malicious beast of a market. Do not fall into the Bull Trap on 8/21 they will surely try to bull it up once more. NB: Sand P has been within 10 pts of Jan high already. This is very near completion at current prices, maybe one more bullish attempt to breakout higher.
Until I saw this and the Gartley I was bullish last week, now I am onboard with The_Unwind, and others preparing for big break.
NB: If the bullish mood is strong enough, it is possible to create the expanded flat, in which B wave carries ABOVE the origin price, possibly to new all time high, before breaking down again off the double top.
Please read my prior posts to see the Gartley with perfect Fibo ratios, virtually identical to Bitcoin before that broke.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
I have read other wave theorists charts and the common approach seems to be trying to impose a 5 wave motive impulse pattern onto this chart, which simply doesn't fit.
It won't fit, because the market is not in a primary motive impulse; it is in a large-scale primary flat correction, which is countertrend to the previous bullish trend.
The entier channel we've been riding since April is the B wave. It's near termination now; this is a Bear Flag continuation pattern expected to move down again.
Once I recognized this, the reactionary corrective wave patterns fit perfectly with no fudging required. Notice the respect for Fibo and channel limits in these waves.
The two flashcrashes we had 2 + 15 August have created a new formation in chart: the rising wedge, another ominous pattern to go with a Bearish Gartley (see link) and bearish divergence in the indices and also within this index.
The flat, or Zig-Zag correction, is a lateral movement initiated by a powerful, panic-style A wave, which we saw in February, followed by a lengthy, complex, oscillating sine-wave B that carries index nearly to or equal to the prior high. In US 30 we see current price on 8/20 resting on the trendline, and also reaching back on a perfect parallel to a nearly .786 Fibo with 26 Feb reactionary high coming off the primary A wave. All this bodes ill, because:
Once the B wave completes at/near the price of origin, a steep, sharp C wave carries the index back down to the low price at bottom of the A wave. So after months of churning you end up right back where you started - twice. This is a vicious and malicious beast of a market. Do not fall into the Bull Trap on 8/21 they will surely try to bull it up once more. NB: Sand P has been within 10 pts of Jan high already. This is very near completion at current prices, maybe one more bullish attempt to breakout higher.
Until I saw this and the Gartley I was bullish last week, now I am onboard with The_Unwind, and others preparing for big break.
NB: If the bullish mood is strong enough, it is possible to create the expanded flat, in which B wave carries ABOVE the origin price, possibly to new all time high, before breaking down again off the double top.
Please read my prior posts to see the Gartley with perfect Fibo ratios, virtually identical to Bitcoin before that broke.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
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Confirmed 8/21 with intraday H&S, shooting star.Trade active
It's going to get real ugly sooner than expected. I'm afraid we are not in a fourth going on fifth wave but what appears to be an ABC or WXY, and A/W is getting pretty ugly. If so, the B/X reactionary wave could be vigorous, might retest highs. EW analysis will break down in highly volatile, emotionally charged markets- highly unpredictable, extremely risky. Safest bet now to take no trades until this thing declares itself. Preserve your trading capital!
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