US 30: Valentine's Day Massacre?
Updated
All the good news is out. Prices pierced and fell back to TL. Price at 0.62 Fibo now. Sand P also at Fibo just a hair above 2700. Bear flag flying at tip of pennant.
Can it get higher? Of course! 'Pumptards' are capable of infinitely irrational behavior. But will it? That is the question, to be or not to be more! IMO not to be more.
Just an idea; the .62 Fibo retrace on this flag is down at 23K for Dow, that's 2K under current price. Would be a pretty penny if it sells to Fibo. Lotta folks calling for a 'crash' but I reckon an 'M' correction is more likely, the 'C' leg on that would be pretty steep, down at 1.62 Fibo brings 30 under 20K. Notice the expanding 'megaphone' corrective structure- ominous, wide open to lower prices. Expect a double bottom with a steeper drop on the secondary correction after the 'Christmas Crash.'
Has been trending up for 40 days, as of Groundhog day on Feb 02 (Candlemas!). Timeframe for next leg on correction, based on comps from 1987, 2001 selloffs, is about 80 days from bottom-to-bottom: which puts the next low in late March/early April. Then expect super bully in late April into May before a June swoon. Just guessing.
As always, this isn't even remotely anything like advice, just a crackpot harebrained idea. Trade at your own risk and consult a certified investment advisor please!
Can it get higher? Of course! 'Pumptards' are capable of infinitely irrational behavior. But will it? That is the question, to be or not to be more! IMO not to be more.
Just an idea; the .62 Fibo retrace on this flag is down at 23K for Dow, that's 2K under current price. Would be a pretty penny if it sells to Fibo. Lotta folks calling for a 'crash' but I reckon an 'M' correction is more likely, the 'C' leg on that would be pretty steep, down at 1.62 Fibo brings 30 under 20K. Notice the expanding 'megaphone' corrective structure- ominous, wide open to lower prices. Expect a double bottom with a steeper drop on the secondary correction after the 'Christmas Crash.'
Has been trending up for 40 days, as of Groundhog day on Feb 02 (Candlemas!). Timeframe for next leg on correction, based on comps from 1987, 2001 selloffs, is about 80 days from bottom-to-bottom: which puts the next low in late March/early April. Then expect super bully in late April into May before a June swoon. Just guessing.
As always, this isn't even remotely anything like advice, just a crackpot harebrained idea. Trade at your own risk and consult a certified investment advisor please!
Note
Possible high on Friday, waiting on confirmation, look for a lower high on Monday with the H&S pattern- would be the right shoulder. Could still bull a bit more.In meantime, taking small shorts at every high price; has been profitable- eventually these will pay off when it sells below the TL and doesn't bounce back. GLTA!
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Overall trend is modestly bullish, 30" bars still green, still some BTFD sentiment. Will likely inch higher this week. Shorting any upside pop, look for bear engulfing candle if we get another surge. Still too soon to plunge short IMO.Trade active
Charting a bullish breakout above the TL; historical R at 25400 back to June. Next R at 25600; the 0.786 Fibo is 25816. No one knows how high she goes but we know what goes up must come down!NB: The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. -Attributed to Keynes
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett
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Entered small shorts in DIA 255, QQQ 170 and SPY 273 put contracts, March exps. This may be short term top but can still get higher. Got an H&S intraday on 15" chart, all indices.Trade active
Closed the shorts waiting on test of TL; if it bounce off TL can retest top or even make higher 2nd top before selloff. Daily chart suggests a cup forming; Patience!Note
Bounced off the TL to form intraday Cup & Handle... a bullish pattern... suggests hihger prices soon, will it give a double top or a right shoulder? Stay tuned!Trade active
Will either form a double top and break down from there ot just go straight off from the hanging man Doji left dangling on Friday. Have a look at 8 October- same...Trade active
Re-entering shorts on rallies. I see H&S pattern dating from 30 Jan, head topped on 6 Feb, now in the Right Shoulder, starting B wave downtrend, target 2425 - 2535 to pivot into C leg up to final rally. Real nice article on EW theory in MarketWatch, makes me re-consider the chart projection in this idea, an A-B-C countertrend move with C wave terminating around 2813 - 2863 would give the right shoulder to the primary structure dating back to Jan 2018. Low prices to be expected in June '19 (another June swoon) and another, lower high in September 2019. WD Gann: "More highs occur in September than any other month!"marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-market-is-set-to-fall-this-week-according-to-elliott-wave-theory-2019-02-11
Note
More detailed chart indicating initial drop to near 2640, likely countertrend as high as 2690, then lower to targets: elliottwavetrader.net/images/charts/201902/full-dcf15054eb855f471aeb7c3473aa1eb8c757242f.jpgNote
Timeframe: NB; 14 days over next ten sessions. This agrees with Humble Watcher's Fibonacci time, although Avi's target price is higher. We could get a double bottom but a pullback to 0.50 - 0.618 Fibo around 2490 -2535 SPX, 23030 - 24030 Dow is more probable. This will lead to the final leg up of the ten year bull market, high price likely in September 2019. A secular bear market is likely to follow which could last for 3-5 years.Trade active
Still bearish in spite of the terrific rally, which surpassed all logic and reason. At Friday 22 Feb close Nas regained 93% of the declines from 3 October; Dow a bit over 80% and SPX, the most statistically valid model, stands a thin hair below the 76.8% Fibo retrace level. 2802 was the support back in July; now it's the ceiling. Shorting QQQ, SPY, DIA. Expect reversal within a few weeks, at most. March is seasonally stormy both in weather and markets. GLTA!
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