DOW 2024 Bear Market Top In Place 37% Sell Off In 18 Months
Using the monthly chart, the start of the 2024 bear market is here. Using strictly technicals I will give my reasonings.
All of my analysis is based on the 1962 Set Up
Identical to today in 2024
Starting with 1962
1. A 28% drop into a rising weekly 200sma
2. A then subsequent 88% rally
3. After said rally, a then, 25% bear market/ pullback into the top of the 1962 crash. About 50% of the move
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern over the course of 2 years
5. At the top of the bear flag channel, near the start of a new year, with a bearish engulfing candle to kick off the bear market.
Now with 2019
1. A 38% crash into a weekly rising 200sma
2. A then monster rally of 104%
3. At the top a 22% pullback into the top of the crash from 2019, which was half way of the 104% rally
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern
5. Now if true, then this would be the start of the 37% sell off into 24,000 which is the monthly demand zone from 2019
Zoomed out even further, you can see a 20 year period of range activity of 100% rallies followed by 40% sell offs. Boom and Bust cycle of Bear and Bull Markets. It wasn't until 1982 that the breakout happened.
After the breakout it went on to a absolute monster of a move of 250% in 5 years
Here with 2019 Chart using the same 20 year range, this would take us all the way into 2041 before a breakout of this chop. A 20,000 point sideways range
All of my analysis is based on the 1962 Set Up
Identical to today in 2024
Starting with 1962
1. A 28% drop into a rising weekly 200sma
2. A then subsequent 88% rally
3. After said rally, a then, 25% bear market/ pullback into the top of the 1962 crash. About 50% of the move
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern over the course of 2 years
5. At the top of the bear flag channel, near the start of a new year, with a bearish engulfing candle to kick off the bear market.
Now with 2019
1. A 38% crash into a weekly rising 200sma
2. A then monster rally of 104%
3. At the top a 22% pullback into the top of the crash from 2019, which was half way of the 104% rally
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern
5. Now if true, then this would be the start of the 37% sell off into 24,000 which is the monthly demand zone from 2019
Zoomed out even further, you can see a 20 year period of range activity of 100% rallies followed by 40% sell offs. Boom and Bust cycle of Bear and Bull Markets. It wasn't until 1982 that the breakout happened.
After the breakout it went on to a absolute monster of a move of 250% in 5 years
Here with 2019 Chart using the same 20 year range, this would take us all the way into 2041 before a breakout of this chop. A 20,000 point sideways range
Note
My entry short would be to wait for the pullback into the 50% mark of January Bearish Engulfing (if it setup) which would be around Aprilish. 12,000 points down to 24,000
Note
On the daily chart, Entry short is still over 110 days away. I will sit here and waitNote
Using the yearly chart, I was able to create an upchannel, this 37% sell off lines up with demand and the channel bottom in June 2025. Roughly 18 months of sellingNote
I believe price will be bullish for just a little while longer until it hits the top of the up channel at 38,700. I believe January CPI will take us there for the final long push. I believe institutions must have their sell orders sitting up there at 38,700 just waiting.Trade active
I placed my starter short position today on 01/18/2024 at price level 37,643.00 with the intention of adding more contracts on the way down. My ultimate target is 37% decline at price level 24,500.00
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.