DOW megaphone 1960's vs today
Updated
I lost my original chart on this so I'm publishing this one- I'll publish updates in tradingview going forward. Just an interesting comparison and similar pattern in the Dow Jones Industrial average from the 1960's-70's vs. the DOW today. We are at a similar place at the #5 count. I'm just dying to know if this is a real breakout or just a fakeout. I've been of the strong opinion that we need a deeper/longer correction so I'm leaning toward a move down into mid-late 2020 prior to election. It only gets more interesting from here.. major fork in the road now.
Forgive my spiel:
I have warning signals firing on my other charts and I feel extremely uncomfortable with what I'm seeing today. The aug-sept drops, repeated recession talk, and doomsday media coverage sucked in a lot of bearish sentiment. That sentiment was squashed severely and shorts were squeezed out. Now things are turning around- shift in sentiment, vix on the floor, market 'breaking out', "positive trade negations" (<-- I'm tired of this narrative), put/call ratio LOW. All's well. Trader's are going long and FOMO (fear of missing out) is kicking in. I'm not too interested, folks. All is NOT well. I would argue that we're already in a recession now- don't be fooled by the Fed- they know a lot more than they can say. Trust me, they have early access. Why would they cut rates 3x in a row? Why the extraordinary repo injections with ever increasing amounts and duration? The fundamentals are ugly ugly ugly- DO NOT be fooled. There are so many clear warning signs- just dig a little deeper than the main financial news sources and consider raising an eyebrow at what's happening behind the curtain. If you look at the DOW from the 1960's-70's, you'll see that we eventually broke above the pattern and continued on after the #6 bounce- I'm beginning to question whether we repeat this. We could be forming a significant top in the market now, fall to #6 on this pattern, have a nice bounce... and that's it. We could drop through the floor and have a major recession/depression with a long road to recovery. This would actually be the better choice. I suppose we could have endless QE and continue this story, but to what end? What happens to our currency? What happens to our buying power? We will see inflation beyond our imagination if this continues. My vote is in favor of letting the market decide if that's still possible.. think about that. The market decided in 2008 to come back to reality. Now I'm not so sure that they can allow that to happen again. You can disagree with me, but I believe this market is being propped up in a perfect storm of events and by a buyer with unlimited leverage.
Forgive my spiel:
I have warning signals firing on my other charts and I feel extremely uncomfortable with what I'm seeing today. The aug-sept drops, repeated recession talk, and doomsday media coverage sucked in a lot of bearish sentiment. That sentiment was squashed severely and shorts were squeezed out. Now things are turning around- shift in sentiment, vix on the floor, market 'breaking out', "positive trade negations" (<-- I'm tired of this narrative), put/call ratio LOW. All's well. Trader's are going long and FOMO (fear of missing out) is kicking in. I'm not too interested, folks. All is NOT well. I would argue that we're already in a recession now- don't be fooled by the Fed- they know a lot more than they can say. Trust me, they have early access. Why would they cut rates 3x in a row? Why the extraordinary repo injections with ever increasing amounts and duration? The fundamentals are ugly ugly ugly- DO NOT be fooled. There are so many clear warning signs- just dig a little deeper than the main financial news sources and consider raising an eyebrow at what's happening behind the curtain. If you look at the DOW from the 1960's-70's, you'll see that we eventually broke above the pattern and continued on after the #6 bounce- I'm beginning to question whether we repeat this. We could be forming a significant top in the market now, fall to #6 on this pattern, have a nice bounce... and that's it. We could drop through the floor and have a major recession/depression with a long road to recovery. This would actually be the better choice. I suppose we could have endless QE and continue this story, but to what end? What happens to our currency? What happens to our buying power? We will see inflation beyond our imagination if this continues. My vote is in favor of letting the market decide if that's still possible.. think about that. The market decided in 2008 to come back to reality. Now I'm not so sure that they can allow that to happen again. You can disagree with me, but I believe this market is being propped up in a perfect storm of events and by a buyer with unlimited leverage.
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a little comedy for the day.. wait for it.. Note
following this uptrend channel- I am extremely suspicious of the recent strength in market. We had a spike on non farm payrolls today- very impressive numbers and lower than expected unemployment but I'm not buying it.. danger danger danger Note
DECISION POINT- watch this area closely. This looks like the perfect fake out/blow off top. If price breaks back below.. look out- we could be observing the final top in this bull run... Note
es/spy chart. this one's important. Top indicator is volume- pink boxes show what's occurred the last few times on this trend. Note
bull case, bear case.. which way!? Note
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unreal- it dropped below my 'decision point' line... could it be happening..? Note
that was a tremendous drop but we're not back inside the broadening formation.. What if we drop to #6 this year? We just watched the DOW drop 16-17% in about 1 week so DO NOT be so quick to dismiss the possibility!Note
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Apparently I'm unable to type well at the moment.. let me rephrase that: "We're NOW back inside the broadening formation.."Note
UNBELIEVABLENote
hmm 
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