Bitcoin (BTCUSD) bottom? DowJones key take aways (2008)
Hello all,
I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation.
On my profile page you can find the BTCUSD analysis based on the same principles.
The Dow Jones bottom formation after 2008 financial crisis:
- Top 200 MA: 13 300
- Bottom 200MA: 8 300
- Draw a fibonacci retracement from top to bottom:
Findings:
- V-bottom formation (different then BTC '14, Nikkei '08 -'09)
- Before V formation price was trading with a very high volatility in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from 200MA top
- After parabolic selloffs (3); 130% retrace from 200MA top served as support.
- Price levels below 130% got bought up linear (V-shape)
- Price found support at 100% retrace from 200 MA where it confirmed the bottom
- 200 MA in uptrend ever since
Link BTC 2014 Crash:
- parabolic selloffs
- 85 - 100 - 115 % retrace from 200MA top plays still important role during bottom formation
shortcommings:
- Prediction of 200MA trendline
- Empirical analysis
I'm looking forward to your feedback.
Best,
Bavo
I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation.
On my profile page you can find the BTCUSD analysis based on the same principles.
The Dow Jones bottom formation after 2008 financial crisis:
- Top 200 MA: 13 300
- Bottom 200MA: 8 300
- Draw a fibonacci retracement from top to bottom:
Findings:
- V-bottom formation (different then BTC '14, Nikkei '08 -'09)
- Before V formation price was trading with a very high volatility in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from 200MA top
- After parabolic selloffs (3); 130% retrace from 200MA top served as support.
- Price levels below 130% got bought up linear (V-shape)
- Price found support at 100% retrace from 200 MA where it confirmed the bottom
- 200 MA in uptrend ever since
Link BTC 2014 Crash:
- parabolic selloffs
- 85 - 100 - 115 % retrace from 200MA top plays still important role during bottom formation
shortcommings:
- Prediction of 200MA trendline
- Empirical analysis
I'm looking forward to your feedback.
Best,
Bavo
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