This is a very short term pattern so not very reliable, but the past couple of months have provided a nice shakeout I originally referenced, although I was a week early on the call. I'm much more comfortable getting in now that price action has cooled off a bit; however, if price can't make a daily close outside the regression trend then maybe it will retest the mid point or even low point of the channel. Earnings are coming up in about a week. For the most part, the 50 day MA has been providing support but if price were to breakdown it looks like the 200 day MA and low point of the regression channel might converge around $25 or maybe even a little lower which if that happened I would definitely consider buying there.. Price is also getting close to a decision point - 50 day MA and very short term uptrend line are coming to a point with the regression downtrend line. Anyway we'll see what happens, since it's such a short term pattern I will have a tight stop loss on a daily closing basis in case of a false breakout.
Note
Trade active on daily close outside of regression trend. I might get trolled pretty hard if earnings are bad tomorrow but my stop loss is a daily close back inside the regression trend or else $31.50 intraday.Note
Note
I also forgot to note, I was hoping for a continuation of the breakout candle with a good earnings reaction today. But it's really hard to predict how the market is going to react to earnings, price very well could have continued higher but for now the signal was just a false breakout.Note
Taking another shot at this. This time stop loss is a daily close below $31.50 which would be below that most recent strong red candle. I like this set up better as it's barely breaking out and doing it more quietly at a lower price. No earnings to derail it this time, although any negative news with the NFL would derail it pretty quickly.
Note
Updating my stop loss to an open order so that I at least break even on this trade. Stop loss is now $34.64 open order.
Note
Thought about selling today around $40 before it gap filled this morning. I didn't pull the trigger in the end because I wasn't sure it necessarily needed to fill the gap but sure enough that would have worked out. I'm not a day trader at all but today I could have sold at $40 and bought back maybe in the low $37 range. But it didn't quite fully fill the gap so maybe I wouldn't have got in as low as I think I would in hindsight. Just making a note about this for my records.Note
Still barely in this trade as price has not hit my stop loss yet, came within 20 cents one day but trade is still active for now.Note
Normally I wouldn't do this but since this is such a short-term pattern I'm going to set a stop loss to make up for the first trade I tried and break even on that as well. New stop loss is an open order at $36.90 (which I anticipate will probably get hit), but for now it's just a little below the low so far today.Note
Trade closed at stop loss price this morning. Ended up not making anything but didn't lose anything either on the 2 combined trades above. I may consider re-entry around $34 or slightly lower, that would be around the short-term uptrend line and stop would be a daily close below that line. We'll see.. anyway for now I'm out.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.