This weekend looks like the crypto God candle weekend for the majors. Doge is also looking strong, but chance of it being part of the US strategic reserve is slim to none. But, when tide is rising, it doesn't matter. Right now, the challenge in front of doge is to get out of the downward channel, and fast. The price action has two bullish scenarios left. Depending on how strong the momentum gets, one or the other should come to pass.
1. Ending diagonal (pink): The price action for both intermediate 1 and Minor 1 can be counted as 3 waves zigzag or five waves and be valid. This is something that EW sometimes cannot paint a clean picture until a lot of time passes. But as traders, we need to just figure out the next move and be prepared. In case doge is playing out an ending diagonal pattern, then we should see 3 waves moves to the upside. And since, it is an expanding diagonal, we should see wave 5 is larger than wave 3. So, as a normal range of 1 to 1.236 extension, price should top out between $1.1 to $1.6. The confirmation will be a sharp decline from the top.
2. Wave 3 of 3 of 5 (blue): probability of this should be greater with a strong momentum to the upside. We should see price rocket out of the channel and get to all time high before a meaningful pullback. Price should break through $1 milestone and go higher without stopping for a breather as we have seen in the previous rocket moves. Target will be $6-$10 and level of insanity will be at its peak!
How to trade between the two scenarios: The difference of targets between the two scenarios is massive. We don't want to take a risk of losing all the gains in matter of days, nor do we want to stay on the sidelines when price makes 6x gains in matter of weeks. So, to stay safe, it is important to take some profit between 1 - 1.236 fib extension (at least 25% - 30%) and put a stop loss at $0.48 for the rest. There could be other higher areas to put the stop loss to phase out with more gains, but $0.48, which is the top of minor wave 1, and breaking that will be the confirmation of the top. If price doesn't make it to that level and goes back up to make strong highs, then buy back in at the breakout (this would be one of the scenarios where we can buy a breakout) to jump back on the ship and ride the lightning.
Bear case: There is always the other side of the coin. If price fails to break above $0.28 and the channel, then chances are, the downtrend will continue. It can keep going down to find support at the trend lines. If the trend lines break, then chance of primary wave 4 still in play goes higher. Target can be anything till $0,018. Hope that is not the case...
1. Ending diagonal (pink): The price action for both intermediate 1 and Minor 1 can be counted as 3 waves zigzag or five waves and be valid. This is something that EW sometimes cannot paint a clean picture until a lot of time passes. But as traders, we need to just figure out the next move and be prepared. In case doge is playing out an ending diagonal pattern, then we should see 3 waves moves to the upside. And since, it is an expanding diagonal, we should see wave 5 is larger than wave 3. So, as a normal range of 1 to 1.236 extension, price should top out between $1.1 to $1.6. The confirmation will be a sharp decline from the top.
2. Wave 3 of 3 of 5 (blue): probability of this should be greater with a strong momentum to the upside. We should see price rocket out of the channel and get to all time high before a meaningful pullback. Price should break through $1 milestone and go higher without stopping for a breather as we have seen in the previous rocket moves. Target will be $6-$10 and level of insanity will be at its peak!
How to trade between the two scenarios: The difference of targets between the two scenarios is massive. We don't want to take a risk of losing all the gains in matter of days, nor do we want to stay on the sidelines when price makes 6x gains in matter of weeks. So, to stay safe, it is important to take some profit between 1 - 1.236 fib extension (at least 25% - 30%) and put a stop loss at $0.48 for the rest. There could be other higher areas to put the stop loss to phase out with more gains, but $0.48, which is the top of minor wave 1, and breaking that will be the confirmation of the top. If price doesn't make it to that level and goes back up to make strong highs, then buy back in at the breakout (this would be one of the scenarios where we can buy a breakout) to jump back on the ship and ride the lightning.
Bear case: There is always the other side of the coin. If price fails to break above $0.28 and the channel, then chances are, the downtrend will continue. It can keep going down to find support at the trend lines. If the trend lines break, then chance of primary wave 4 still in play goes higher. Target can be anything till $0,018. Hope that is not the case...
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.