DOGE → Hinting at a Drop! Are we going back to $0.05?
Updated
Dogecoin is starting to show signs of converting to a trading range after a strong bull run. We have a potential double top reversal pattern playing out after three good pushes to the upside. Does that mean we're heading down?
How do we trade this? 🤔
Three pushes up, potential double top reversal pattern, RSI at 62.00 and below the Moving Average, these are the key data points that should bring us caution when the thought to long crosses our mind. What we're missing right now is a confirmation candle and a lower low to give us enough probability to enter a short scalp and maybe a partial swing.
A final sell signal at the Previous High of $0.10750 would be ideal, giving us enough range for a 1:3 Risk/Reward Ratio. Using my favorite approach, take half profits at $0.10 (1:1 Risk/Reward), move your stop loss up to your entry price, then swing the remainder to 1:3 Risk/Reward at $0.09.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $0.10500
🟥 Stop Loss: $0.11000
✅ Take Profit #1: $0.10000
✅ Take Profit #2: $0.09000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long.
2. Three Pushes Up, Potential Double Top Reversal.
3. Could convert to Trading Range between $0.0875 and $0.10750.
4. RSI at 62.00 and below Moving Average. Bias to Short.
5. Bitcoin is running hot to the upside, risk of trend change.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
How do we trade this? 🤔
Three pushes up, potential double top reversal pattern, RSI at 62.00 and below the Moving Average, these are the key data points that should bring us caution when the thought to long crosses our mind. What we're missing right now is a confirmation candle and a lower low to give us enough probability to enter a short scalp and maybe a partial swing.
A final sell signal at the Previous High of $0.10750 would be ideal, giving us enough range for a 1:3 Risk/Reward Ratio. Using my favorite approach, take half profits at $0.10 (1:1 Risk/Reward), move your stop loss up to your entry price, then swing the remainder to 1:3 Risk/Reward at $0.09.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $0.10500
🟥 Stop Loss: $0.11000
✅ Take Profit #1: $0.10000
✅ Take Profit #2: $0.09000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long.
2. Three Pushes Up, Potential Double Top Reversal.
3. Could convert to Trading Range between $0.0875 and $0.10750.
4. RSI at 62.00 and below Moving Average. Bias to Short.
5. Bitcoin is running hot to the upside, risk of trend change.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Note
Doge has come down to the Support Zone as expected and is currently flirting with it again. We never re-tested $0.10750 which is still on the table if Bitcoin hits or breaks $46,000. With the alt coin market being as lackluster as it has been, so I'm not expecting $0.11 Doge to be hit on this run.
We cannot say either way until we see what happens at this price level, right now. If we fall through and re-test the Support Zone as resistance, execute the proposed short trade in this analysis. If we bounce here at the Support Zone, it's reasonable to consider a long scalp.
Note
Doge has officially fallen out of the bull channel and into a trading range. This is a statistically typical move with trends; three pushes up, a reversal signal like a double top, followed by sideways price action because the bulls are out of steam.
This doesn't mean the bulls are done, but the probability of continued bull price action is much lower now. We still need to wait for the break below the Support Zone followed by a retest as resistance to justify a short. It could be reasonable to enter a short now given the double top, but I consider that a much higher risk trade since we don't have confirmation of the break downward. Double tops often fail and the trend is king.
I suggest waiting on the sidelines until we get the break!
-Joe Dean
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