Decision Time for DOGE (and the Alts)
Looking across the Altcoin market, wondering whether we have capitulated or not, I notice DOGE presents a very useful example of the perilousness of the Alt-coin situation.
Looking at the standard daily chart, let’s consider the bearish and bullish cases:
Bearish Case
Firstly, we see a multi-month Head & Shoulders pattern, with pricing sitting just above the neckline. If price confirms a break below that neckline, the H&S pattern projects a potential decline to $0.01094. Let’s call it 1 cent. That’s over a 90% loss in value from the current price. Price has broken support of all the Moving Averages, is not supported by a weekly Pivot line, and is desperately clinging to the 50% retracement (of a prior A wave). In this scenario, there are also attractors pulling the price lower:
Bullish Case
I admit this is not as easy to argue, however, while price remains above $0.115, there is hope! So, we can say that as long as price holds the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement level, there's a chance that we could pivot higher and reclaim support of the 200MA (dark blue), and the S1 Pivot line.
So, it’s all about that neckline. A confirmed break below $0.115 and we could see the floor give way. Or if it holds, we could see a major bullish reversal after price reclaims a few support levels.
What do you think? Is a post-halving collapse of the Alt-coin market likely? Or is Alt-season about to kick off?
Looking at the standard daily chart, let’s consider the bearish and bullish cases:
Bearish Case
Firstly, we see a multi-month Head & Shoulders pattern, with pricing sitting just above the neckline. If price confirms a break below that neckline, the H&S pattern projects a potential decline to $0.01094. Let’s call it 1 cent. That’s over a 90% loss in value from the current price. Price has broken support of all the Moving Averages, is not supported by a weekly Pivot line, and is desperately clinging to the 50% retracement (of a prior A wave). In this scenario, there are also attractors pulling the price lower:
- The C-wave – is usually broken into a 5 wave movement down, and could be considered complete, except that it typically reaches a 0.618 or greater Fibonacci projection to the downside (of A from B), although not always.
- Untested Support – clearly visible are two lines of Untested Support, at $0.10716 and $0.09046. The lower value which is coincident with the 0.786 projection of the Fibonacci Retracement.
- Indicators – the MACD has not eased its decline, even steepening in the last few days, showing momentum is down.
Bullish Case
I admit this is not as easy to argue, however, while price remains above $0.115, there is hope! So, we can say that as long as price holds the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement level, there's a chance that we could pivot higher and reclaim support of the 200MA (dark blue), and the S1 Pivot line.
- XABCD - Supporting that is the XABCD Gartley harmonic pattern, with all lines sitting in Fibonacci proportions and a broad XD base at 0.786.What’s more, the low of today at D, came down to touch perfectly the 0786 retracement of the XA move.
- Indicators - The RSI is just entering overbought territory, which is usually a sign that a low is close or has occurred. Volume – is as low as it was before price began moving in March, with a little selling spike which seems to precede a reversal in trend.
- Moon Phase – there is 3 days to the Full Moon, which seems to follow an upswing by a couple days, meaning we could be touching a bottom now.
So, it’s all about that neckline. A confirmed break below $0.115 and we could see the floor give way. Or if it holds, we could see a major bullish reversal after price reclaims a few support levels.
What do you think? Is a post-halving collapse of the Alt-coin market likely? Or is Alt-season about to kick off?
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