Long

DOTUSDT - who is bullish on crypto?

Updated

Disclaimer: I don't have a fundamental basis to actually believe in this scenario, but what I see on the chart I see on the chart.

With that out of the way, the shown scenario of an impulse followed by a rather big flat correction, which might be done now, would be extremely bullish, since it would suggest new all time highs (that would be a 13x from here at minimum).

Never only consider one way though, even without changing too much of the count, a not so nice mid/long-term alternative would be this:

Note

Currently sitting at around 66%+ since my initial post.

We hit some resistance around 7.7$, a sustained break of that and hold above 8$ should get us up to the 9-10$ range for starters.

If my analysis has been helpful to you, consider showing some appreciation by buying me a coffee:

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tophatpandamagician

or join me on my newly created patreon:

https://www.patreon.com/TophatPandaMagician

I will provide more detailed and frequent analysis as well as exclusive patreon only analysis over there.

A more detailed update on DOT has been posted on patreon.

Note

From the mentioned update on patreon from 2 days ago:

Perfectly shown the zone where it ultimately stopped and called out watching for the 6.5$ - 6.8$ range to hold in case of a deeper drop. Only had a few wicks below 6.5$ on the 1h and 4h.

We will have to see if it continues going for new highs immediately, but it wasn't a difficult trade to take:

https://ibb.co/Nmb4DbG

Note

Perfectly moved from one zone to the other:

Two possible counts that would have this continue higher:

One alternative that would have this move be done:

For a continuation, holding this zone would look nicely:

Should that not hold, the next spot to look for a hold:

And if even that gets a sustained break, I'd say it's likely we'll at least revist mid 6$, but I'll think about that then.

Note

Looks like crypto did a crypto.

Patreon exclusive update from yesterday pointing out another likely wave down:

with a mention that a break of the red lines would likely lead noticeably lower.

I mentioned that in the last update here too, saying that breaking that would lead to mid 6$ and that's exactly where we went with a noteworthy reaction from 6.5$ for the time being.

So what now?

We basically played ping pong between these two zones (compare Dec 12th and Dec 28th updates) and as it was before, this would've been a good zone for a buy again, though you weren't really given a chance to buy, if you weren't already prepared.

So there isn't really much to do here besides waiting how it continues. Another visit of that zone (white line) would be one to watch, if it offers.

Note

Well, there it was, offered that zone once more as predicted.

Lots of possibilities on the table now though. Could be seen as a zigzag as labeled above, which still could be just the first wave of a bigger correction, which again could turn into a sideways or sharp correction.

Alternatively we might have just finished a wave 3 of an impulse on that low and might still have another kick to go down to finish just an A wave.

Either way first resistance coming up, will have to see what it does there for starters.

Note

First real break of that 6.2$-6.6$ zone.

Multiple ways to get there, but I'd be looking for 5$-5.6$ next:

Possibly testing the previous 6.2$+ zone from below first before going deeper.

Note

Alternative, if we manage to regain this zone here again.

Note

Followed the path shown in the last update pretty nicely so far:

Some side notes to consider, if we get a sustained break above the ~7.7$ level:

1. While not my primary assumptions at this point, it is possible that the last low did already finish the correction of the full move from the low.

2. We could also get a bigger sideways correction, that tests the highs before going for another low or testing the previous low:

A flat shown in the image above as one possibility.

Note

The two paths shown in the previous update are still the ones I'm looking at:

Note

Has been following the orange path so far (compare images in the last two updates).

Holding this zone here / the red lines, would look good for more immediate upside.

Note

Nice hold there for a start.

Doesn't mean that it can't test all that another time, but that was a buy for me.

I hope I'm not the only one making profits here: ibb.co/4VSGjn7

That's from my copy trading account, that I started this year, link is in my profile, if you're interested in seeing the performance.

Note

Test it one more time it did and hold once more it did too:

And an even slightly prettier hold right here:

That geometry in the second image I've shared a few times here before too. First time was 28th december 2023 (second to last image).

Levels:

Note

Happy pump day everyone!

Let's zoom out a bit today:

Last bit of resistance here, then we're back the the highs.

As shown in the Jan. 30th update (last image), there is a possibility of a bigger sideways correction as such:

If bitcoin continues like this though, there's no reason not to consider that wave 2 was already completed at the 6$ low:

One more alternative to consider:

We do remember this one right?

Not suggesting it has to stop at the upcoming lines, getting above and testing from above would be a nice thing to see for the more bullish scenarios.

Getting above and staying over 9.6$/9.8 would lead to another small level block around 10.2 with the next big cluster at 11$-11.5$ and 12.5$/12.6$ after that. If we're getting that high though, I'd expect it to continue quite a bit further, but we'll get there, when we get there.

Note

Heh, well that one held for now.

Let's see if we still manage to get to the upper one or if that was the start towards another low after all.

Note

Got into that last target zone, I've taken some good profits here from the 7.xx$ swing buys, since this was my primary target for that swing. Leaving portions open, if it decides to keep going and I'm still holding spot from sub 5$ accumulation.

It will take some time and further development to better gauge which (if any) of the shown possibilities from the update 3 days ago is playing out.

Note

Bit of a moment of truth spot here.

As mentioned in the Feb. 28th update, we got above 9.6/9.8 and hit 10.2, which is where we stopped for now.

Everything that has been resistance is now to be considered support until broken again, so holding that orange zone would be great for continuation and as mentioned getting a sustained break above that 10.2$ level, will likely be followed by noticeably higher levels.

Note

Quite the liquidation event there over the crypto space, which I admittedly didn't anticipate (at least not on DOT, I had some sitting orders on other stuff that got filled).

Because geometry and support wise, it did hit nice levels with that 8.20$ (compare last updates):

And as mentioned in the Feb 28th update, after 10.2$, next would be 11$-11.5$, which we touched the lower bound of.

Alternative geometry:

Where to from here?

From an EW perspective everything from the Feb 28th update is still possible:

a) The uber bull 1:

b) the uber bull 2:

c) the finished impulse

d) the larger corrective

Pick according to your overall crypto bias, I'm leaning more bullish at this point.

As for levels to watch, it's the same ones all over again:

For a)

The most shallow one would be holding that 10.1$-10.2$, below that 9.5$-9.6$ (possible upper range at 9.8$), then 9.1$-9.3$ and 8.5$ to 8.8$ as the lowest for a). Below that we're more likely (if still uber bullish)

in b)

where 8.0$-8.2$ comes back into play and 7.4$-7.7$ below that.

Those are just the levels on the chart in combination with the geometry (would depend on the time when/if the levels are hit). For a clearer view it would be necessary to see in what form they reach what levels. Either way, we'd need to lose double digits first to require further thought. If and when we get above 11.5$, I'd expect to hit 12.5$ eventually, though starting at 12$ there might be resistance.

Alright that was a big one.... too much? too little? too confusing?

Note

As mentioned in the last update the 10.1$/10.2$ zone basically held with only wicks below that all got immediately bought up into or above the zone. The lowest dip below hit 9.8$, which was also the next level I mentioned. We got into the 11$-11.5$ zone multiple times, ultimately reaching the upper limit and getting a bit above (close to the again previously mentioned 12$).

Now we've lost that zone and are currently sitting at that 10.1$/10.2$ range again.

There are a few too many possibilities countwise at this point, so I'll leave it at what I showed in the last updates. The levels to watch are still the same. If btc continues moving towards 60k, I wouldn't be surprised to see the lower 8$ range on DOT again.

The log and arithmetic geometry that I've been showing also points at some support where we are now, with 8$-9$ (for starters) below if/once lost:

Note

And so we have arrived in the 8s.

The conservative count would have this as a ZigZag down (white count, yellow path). Still as a Zigzag, but with the B-wave not yet done would be the orange path. With the red path it could still be a C wave that goes deeper or a wave 3 of an impulse to the downside.

One more thing to add to the possibility space would be a larger degree contracting diag:

Note

Touched the blue at the low and now once more in the purple:

Not much volume on the current move up and so far contained within a channel.

Note

Stayed contained within the channel and moved according to the red path shown in the last update.

If or when btc decides to drop towards 60k (or lower) again, that would certainly send DOT (and a bunch of alts across the field) noticeably lower, which IMO would be the opportunity to buy heavier again.

Should that opportunity arise:

I'd say 6-7$ are likely and even somewhere in the 5s is definitely on the table. Just something to have on the radar in case of a little flush in the space.

Note

If btc continues further down, so will DOT - in that case I've mentioned the targets in the last update. Otherwise though, this is pretty much the last stand to stay internal, hitting some of the usual geometry I've been showing multiple times:

Log Geo:

Arithmethic Geo:

Note

Unchanged image from the Mar 29th update, when price was at 9.4$:

As mentioned in that update we now got into the mid 6$. So now the question remains if that red medianline cluster holds as support (green path) or we get another bigger flush down into the 5$ range (red path), either scenario could also happen after first slightly taking out the low (yellow path):

Zones of interest based on high/medium/low volume profile:

Note

What a weekend... the flush into the 5$ zone was immediately delivered.

Log geometry held the absolute low:

Arithmetic geometry held the daily close:

It would be nice if that was the end of a zigzag like this:

On lower timeframes it's certainly possible to see one more leg down even for that count, so mindful of that:

That would also work with reaching the lower high volume zone, which we haven't reached yet. On the other hand we only had a wick through the upper high volume zone and are currently above it again

Note

Just a quick one to point out where the move up coincidentally stopped:

Need to get above the red lines and hold there to have more conviction of resumed uptrend.

One more possibilitiy worth mentioning (shown roughly in the last image of the Jan. 30th update and again in d) in the Mar. 7th update), we might still have one larger move down coming to possibly finish the C-wave of a flat correction:

This could provide opportunities even in the lower 4$ range.

Note

Arithmetic geometry:

Green below held as a support on multiple tests from above. Currently testing the blue from below.

Previously shown zones fo interest:

Sitting at the upper bound of the orange zone.

Log geometry:

Managed to get above the red median line cluster on the second try, gave a nice test from above, which held and gave a continuation upwards.

Holding 7.2$-7.3$ might give room up to 8$ (needs to break the blue from the first image).

Otherwise looking for a hold of further tests from above of the red median line cluster.

Note

Basically just updating the 3 images from the last update.

Arithmetic geometry (blue lines) stopped the move up:

Median line cluster in log did not hold, but offered a short opportunity on the retest from below:

Sitting at the upper border of the first high volume zone:

Possible counts as previously suggested:

Orange for a finished zigzag, where you'd want the first high volume zone to hold. Yellow for an unfinished impulse, which could work as the C wave of a flat (compare last image of Apr. 16th update). In that case yellow wave 4 does not have to be finished yet and could turn into a bigger sideways move.
If that should play out, the lower high volume zone is one to watch (down to 5$) and like with the upper high volume zone, there's always a chance of a big wick through the zone to hunt some stops - could go into the lower 4$ range again.

Note

You know the drill.

All we've done so far is ping-pong between blue and green here (arithmetic view):

Needs to get above and hold (which should also take out the last local high) to get more conviction to the upside.

Log view is oscillating around the median line cluster, while having held the out pitchfork lines (gray):

The previously shown zones still showing their importance:

As shown in the last update, there's still a good chance for one more move down, while still being bullish, for example with a triangle wave 4 here:

Note

Interesting spot right here. Since we didn't make a new high yet, the previously shown triangle is still a valid possibility and the blue lines kept holding as resistance:

On the other hand (I wish I could have both those geometry options in one chart, but one is in log and the other is not), the median lina cluster held as support for now. So, for the assumption of that previous kick into 5.7$ being the low, there certainly are ways to get a bullish count here:

Even then though there might be more tests from above of the median line cluster.

Ultimately depends what happens here.

If it holds, creates a new high (above 7.6$( and gets a sustained break above the blue lines, I'd expect it to gofor 8.2$-8.5$ next.

If it breaks below the median line cluster, it increases the chances of the triangle.

Note

Same things once more:

So far followed the path from the frist image in the last update. Blue lines still acting as resistance - no close above yet.

On the other hand the 1-2 1-2 from the second image is also still on the table:

Note

Triangle is off the table, bullish view won.

Did pretty much exactly what I showed in the last image of the last update, test and hold of the median line cluster from above (had to happen eventually for upside):

This also coincided with holding the blue line cluster, which had been resistance so far and can now be considered support in case we get down there again:

Currently trying to get out of the orange zone here:

If and when it continues further up, the next resistance I see is around 8.2$ - 8.6$.

As for the short term, there are a few ways to look at it:

A bunch of 1-2s, where we might have finished or are close to finishing an impulse:

This would allow for a retracement to test the median line cluster and the blue line cluster sub 7$ once more.

If we continue towards 8$+ from here though, we're likely already in wave 3 of 3.

We could be working on a diag:

which also would allow for more tests of the mentioned clusters.

And for completeness sake a bearish view, which would have the lowest probability at this point (wxy could also turn into wxyxz):

Note

So far going along the retracement sub 7$ route, which we already got once with a retest and hold from above of the blue lines.

We might be working on a second one here for example with a flat for the bunch of 1-2s count.

For the other bullish count here we could have finished a diag on the last high:

In that case we might be just in the first corrective wave and it's too early to call for a corrective structure. Eyes on the median line cluster though, would want that to hold (even if it wicks through) for a continuation upwards.

Note

It ain't crypto without moves like that, eh?

So, where we at?

First image of the last update did deliver, we hit the blue again and got a move up, which didn't sustain though:

And now we broke below and immediately testet the blue lines again, which for now acted as resistance.

Pretty much same story with the median line cluster:

Needs to get above both of these again for the bull case, which for now (assuming the 5.7$ low holds), would be the count from the second image of the last update:

Even though it didn't play out as a triangle, this count is still very much on the table (compare last image of the May 3th update and/or last image of the April 27th image):

In this case we could still hit that lower high volume zone at 5.6$ and below

Note

Followed the last image of the last update and finally entered that 5.6$ and below zone, followed by an immedate move up into the previous zone at 6.2$-6.6$:

We also bounced off the next cluster of fibonacci pitchfork lines under the median lines:

That being said, we still haven't reclaimed the median lines. Stopped right under them at the vegas wave (4H).

So the reaction came at the expected spot in case of a loss of the previous low, but it requires some more show of strength to be fully convinced.

Note

As mentioned in the last update, we needed to reclaim the median line cluster, which we did not do. We got another run right into it and that's exactly where it got denied:

Having made a new low local low now, I'd also consider this count:

Green wave 1 could be counted as either an impulse or a zigzag.

We have reached the lower bound of the previously shown zone, where price ran after previously just touching the upper bound:

So the move could be complete, but we're a bit in the air lookiong at the geometry that has been very helpful so far, in log and out of log:

Hitting the next lower level on either, would require one more low to at least 4.6$/4.7$, if not even revisiting 4.20$:

Note

And once more, we hit the median line cluster and got denied:

The only bullish count (other than assuming a zigzag start for a diag, which isn't a great thing to assume) I can see from the last low, would be something like this (flat correction with an expanding leading diag C):

which isn't exactly pretty either.

So the mentioned one more low in the last update towards $4.6/$4.7, if not as low as $4.2, is definitely still on the table.

Note

Who ordered max pain? Definitely got delivered.

Barely worth posting a chart, since the only thing that matters, is that the low has not been taken out. Should it get taken out, the count so far is off the table. But at this point it's pretty much the maximum a correction could take here with this possible count:

For completeness sake though, the two usual geometry views (log and arithmetic) show some things hit on reversal:

Note

Not much of a clear structure to call yet, but the current (temporary) high around 5.1$ was a bit predictable based on the last two images of the last update, since we hit geometry on both + 4h vegas wave:

We have also hit a high volume zone, shown multiple times over past updates:

Should that high hold for now, there's still, as mentioned, not much of structure yet other than a 3-wave move, so there are many possibilities for this to continue. The most bullish would be straight 1-2 1-2, correction and up we go.

More conservative:

The last high might've just finished a B/X wave of a correction that isn't finished yet:

Or we are working on a diag of some sort:

Espeically with the diag options, testing the 4.20$ level sometime later might become an interesting spot, if offered, but too early for that at this point.

Note

For the bull case, the previously shown two yellow counts are still on the table:

Short time frame honestly looks like a possible diag in the works for the bull case, leading into the usual geometry, so that's a spot to watch:

Note

So far fitting the last update:

and the usual geometry still working wonders:

arithmetic view, as shown in the last update stopped the advance twice before being broken:

log view provided the most recent resistance:

Getting above that could very well lead towards the median line cluster again:

TophatPandaMagician

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.