$DOT - 39.36 15 Min Gap to Start Slow Swing Up in December *SMT*
Updated
*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. SMT does not believe in triangles, wedges, tendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. First is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The second thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance.
There are two gaps if you zoom in close enough at the bottom of the current turn and at the price I recommend to the opening of the trade. Yes there maybe wicks that enclose it but that doesn't always matter. I've seen these close on a daily timeline on EURUSD lately and turn right around.
We're also in between a weekly and a monthly Fair Value Gap (Fair value gap is the gap between the wicks in a 3 candle succession) The monthly is filled and the weekly has been hit halfway. And that's all you need in SMT for price to recognize an imbalance and start moving in a bullish direction. However, my stop loss calls to hold for the full part of the weekly fair value gap just in case. However, I don't believe that will be the case. I think we will hit one of the two gaps whether it be today or tomorrow and that would also fill the imbalance that you can barely see.
Now that the imbalances are taken care of what's next? To take care of the liquidity. Liquidity will rest at double lows, double highs, anywhere that a trader would have a possible limit order. The algorithm will attack these areas because retail will think the opposite. Such as the double highs where I have a silver line running across the top. Retail traders will see this as resistance and sell short. Smart Money knows this and they will get near it, pull it back to let people chase it south once it gets up to that area and then they will take the price up taking prices to hit short stop losses. Look at gold where there are 4 "resistance points" and the 5th time it pulls back and breaks through.
Example:
So be careful around these areas that's why I'm giving this timeline 2 weeks to work out because we'll end November on a red candle. December will once again be a green candle and it should start off strong. So that's why I have this end next Saturday. Any questions or comments please let me know.
Happy Trading! :)
The price is coming up so I need to release this.
There are two gaps if you zoom in close enough at the bottom of the current turn and at the price I recommend to the opening of the trade. Yes there maybe wicks that enclose it but that doesn't always matter. I've seen these close on a daily timeline on EURUSD lately and turn right around.
We're also in between a weekly and a monthly Fair Value Gap (Fair value gap is the gap between the wicks in a 3 candle succession) The monthly is filled and the weekly has been hit halfway. And that's all you need in SMT for price to recognize an imbalance and start moving in a bullish direction. However, my stop loss calls to hold for the full part of the weekly fair value gap just in case. However, I don't believe that will be the case. I think we will hit one of the two gaps whether it be today or tomorrow and that would also fill the imbalance that you can barely see.
Now that the imbalances are taken care of what's next? To take care of the liquidity. Liquidity will rest at double lows, double highs, anywhere that a trader would have a possible limit order. The algorithm will attack these areas because retail will think the opposite. Such as the double highs where I have a silver line running across the top. Retail traders will see this as resistance and sell short. Smart Money knows this and they will get near it, pull it back to let people chase it south once it gets up to that area and then they will take the price up taking prices to hit short stop losses. Look at gold where there are 4 "resistance points" and the 5th time it pulls back and breaks through.
Example:
So be careful around these areas that's why I'm giving this timeline 2 weeks to work out because we'll end November on a red candle. December will once again be a green candle and it should start off strong. So that's why I have this end next Saturday. Any questions or comments please let me know.
Happy Trading! :)
The price is coming up so I need to release this.
Trade active
It has entered and covered the gap. Let the trade commenceNote
Interestingly enough, it hit this specific entrance on the exact hourTrade active
odd... it's as if I knew this was going eactly where I thought... Even with the Green line placed on the chart a head of time as a take profit 1 agenda. Trade active
It hit Consequential encroachment, which is halfway through the weekly Fair Value Gap. It looks like it took a bullish move after crossing that line. If it doesn't and starts to move below the current low, expect it to get near the stop loss I projected. In fact, to be safe you may want to place it at $37 in case it spikes through the fair value gap.Trade active
I had to dig down into the 5 minute view of this chart to finally see some positive light. We have 5 minute candles closing above a row of 5 minute candles (dont worry about the wick that actually helps, clearing out liquidity to move up) But then it falls back into a 5 min Fair Value Gap, and fills it completely and seems to be pushing out. I just hope the small bearish order blocks push it down now that it has broken market structure. (market structrure being the candles closing above the lower candles. 5min
15 min
Trade active
As long as the 15 minutes keep closing higher, we're on our way out of the red. think about take profit targets. The first is my green dotted line which is at about 2% profit at $40.02Note
Looking at this from a Macro Perspective, I see a large 4 hour Fair Value Gap as well. The currrent low is sitting on the 4 hour FVG median or consequential Encroachment as we call it. Now, this consequential encroachment should provide a boost that will get the price up nd our of the 4 hour FVG. If it doesn't and these Bearish Order Blocks continue to push price down, We have a problem with my original Idea and you may want to exit early if you are in this trade and set up a second trade that would be at the bottom of the 4 hour FVG, somewhere just above 35.50. Or if you want to hang on to your position if you;ve only started with a small entry, you can wait until this moment to unload into a bigger position. Me Personally. I'm going to wait out my current Ide nd if I get knocked out byb my stop loss. I'm going in for the second idea. Here's the chart depicting the 4 hour fvg from the far side of the chrt Note
Alright, we should have take profit 1 done, which I have takenm 25% of my profits here. We got close to take profit 2 which waws just over 4%, higher if your tradingn futures or margin and if you wish, you can take your second take profit in this area. if you do decide to take you second profit, and your s/l/ is stilll in an area to where youo would win a 10% gain, keep the the s/l as is. Trade active
Dont Fret! There's a +Breaker it's moving toward. Worst that will happen is it will get to the bottom of the breaker before moving up but I have a feeling it's staying toward the top of the breaker. Top 38.98200000
Bottom: 38.70800000
P.S. I've switched from Kucoin to Coinbase as the broker. Coinbase seems to be more accurate.
Note
Perfectly respecting the breaker with the body of the candle jjust closing on the outside of the breaker while it reached down and almost touched the bottom of the breaker. Now we just have to hop it's not going to try and get through the breaker because if it get's under ut, then it will be difficult for price to come back above unless it fills the rest of the 4 hour Fair Value Gap. Trade active
It did dip lower but currently respecting the median of the breaker. These are Bullish signs. Trying to get people to sell-off. Again Its if we get under the breaker and close under it is where it could be trouble. If the hourly closes below the breaker then yes, I might think about aborting the mission. Luckily I've taken enough profits that this will not hurt if I have to abort. This is why taking profits at spcific levels is crucial. Never hold out to win it all, because there's always a chance you could lose it all. Instead of taking small gains here and there. Risk Management is key!!Note
Looks like I was Lying. Even though it closed below 15 minute breaker, the 4 hour Bullish order block is saving the plan. It appears that it was seeking that imbalance in t he bullish candles within the bullish order block. It did fill that balance even though it was previously filled. However, that previous fill may have been a liquidity run and ignored as part of an algorithm fill until now. That being the case we are in the bullish order block and it has now expanding up and hopefully outside the bullish order block. I'll have to wait and see if it the hourly candle closes above the current bullish order block which that high price of the block being 38.72400000Note
I missed an Imbalance in the 1 hour chart just above the bullish order block. The 1 hour still closed above the order block I think this sell off is to gety retail to sell off before it makes a bullish move. Trade closed: stop reached
Welp, There went that Idea. But a nerw one is about to emerge. I didn't expect that drop at London session. Watch out for next idea
You're either trading with Smart Money Theory or your just burning your money money. Believe me, I've been there.
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