There is a growing notion recently amongst the experts that the dollar will rally from here due to coming rate hikes. I must disagree. Today, we broke the 94.5 ceiling (red) which seems bullish, but we have not broken the longer trendline going back to 2011 (black). It is my opinion that the real rejection is at 95.2. After that we are likely to see a downward dollar toward the 92.5 area.
Now, my position is the dollar will continue to lose value (i.e purchasing power) over time. However, there are more than one player in the inflating the currency game (EUR). Based on the historical downward cyclic pattern (back to the 80s) and the gradual loss of reserve currency status, I think USD will win out as the currency loser.
Now, my position is the dollar will continue to lose value (i.e purchasing power) over time. However, there are more than one player in the inflating the currency game (EUR). Based on the historical downward cyclic pattern (back to the 80s) and the gradual loss of reserve currency status, I think USD will win out as the currency loser.
Note
See the long-term cyclic pattern in DXY 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.