While the DXY is over extended, it's also very possible to continue higher to re-test the 120 levels which would coincide with another major leg down on BTC.
If the DXY pulls back here, we could see a short term Bitcoin rally (Bull Trap) along with the altcoins, and then another DXY pump and BTC drop.
But I think we could certainly see another rapid leg down with BTC here, triggering another round of stop losses and liquidations, fueling a retail capitulation.
My downward targets are $16,700 at the 300 weekly MA for Bitcoin.
Next major support is $12,500 at the 400 week SMA.
There is also an unfilled CME gap at around $9750 which would make sense as the Market Makers would likely push price down to break 10k and induce panic selling and the last retail capitulation move before putting in a final bottom.
This will likely play out over the coming months into the Fall before finally putting a bottom in Nov / December 2022.
- #BTC has around ~650 days until its next Halving in April 2024
- Historically, BTC has bottomed ~517-547 days prior to its Halvings
- If history repeats, BTC needs to "waste" 100-150 days before bottoming.
- So we should see bottom in NOV/DEC 2022
- And ATH OCT/NOV 2025
We shall see !
** Ignore the other indicators down below the chart for now. TV won't let me hide them w/out deleting.
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