DXY – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES
Updated
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
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| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
DXY <- We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
- As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
- The price successfully tested the higher high of 2020 and closed with a strong reaction below it.
- The "HH" was joined by the upper resistance line of the lower downtrend channel, which is an additional and very strong resistance.
- From a short-term investment point of view, we should look for a coming correction in the DXY, but it might not be short-lived.
- The MACD momentum indicator reflects a bullish divergence building up. This again supports the thesis that we are getting, for the long-term picture, further price appreciation in the DXY.
- This confirms the picture of the "bubble-holding stock market" and the excessive overvaluation of individual stocks and currency pairs. As soon as the divergence plays out, and we see another rise after a correction, we will see a bloodbath in the traditional markets.
- The needed correction in the traditional markets is long overdue and has been artificially delayed to this day.
Z- You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one -Z
| ZielIstDieAutarkie |
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
Thank you and happy trading!Z
Note
2-WEEK - TIME FRAME1-WEEK - TIME FRAME
1-DAY - TIME FRAME
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the candle close occurred above last week's high < possible bullish trend continuation
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the 2020 HH (102,992), which continues to serve as resistance.
> The next HTF POI is the HH of 2017 (103,820), which is a very strong resistance.
The following "FIBONACCI LEVEL" of the upward movement, are still pending to be worked off:
= 0.880 (103.084 points)
= 0.75 - 0.786 (103.395 - 103.581 points)
= 0.328 (104.328 points)
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below serves as additional support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100) - serves as support.
> The MA (100) - serves as resistance at 104,800 points.
> The MACD indicator achieved a bullish cross, confirming positive momentum.
> The RSI indicator was able to break through the 50% mid-line, with which we are still in a NEUTRAL area.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
Note
HTF - PATTERNMEGAPHONE PATTERN
Explanation:
We are in an HTF megaphone trend pattern that started in 2015 and gained its breakout in May 2022.
> This breakout successfully worked its first target (1,618 FIB) in combination with the HTF channel top.
> On retracement, the breakout could not be confirmed (megaphone = support) and the price fell back into the pattern.
= The momentum indicators all speak for a retest of the megaphone resistance, suggesting a further rise.
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the wick of the candle has a greater length than the shadow cast by the candle.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred above the HH of 2020 (102,921), which thus serves as support.
> Additionally, we have successfully broken the downtrend channel and could test it next week if necessary, thus confirming it as support.
> The next HTF resistance is the HH of 2017 (103,820), which is a very strong hurdle.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (102.321 points) | ITD = 0.618 - 0.88 (102.010 - 102.504 points)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 100 (102.030 - 102.390 points)
- POI | 102,000 & 102,500 points
- MSB | HTF = HH/20 (102,992 points) | MTF = LL/23 (101,921 points)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (104.457 points) | ITD = 0.88 (104.071 points)
- MA | 50 (104.720 points)
- POI | 104,000 & 104,500 points
- MSB | HTF = HH/17 (103,820 points) | MTF = LH/23 (103,572 points)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bullish trend, suggesting continued positive momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed the 60% line, continuing to show a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the shadow of the candle has a greater length than the wick that the candle casts.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred above the HH of 2017 (103,820), which would thus serve as support once confirmed.
> In addition, last week we successfully broke through the lower downtrend channel and continued up without testing it.
> We are at a very strong HTF resistance = the middle trendline of the Superior Bullish Trend Channel (origin 2004).
> The next HTF resistance would be the LH of 2023(104,699), which in combination with the top of the megaphone trend resistance, will be a very strong hurdle.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (102.824 points) | ITD = 0.328 - 0.786 (103.566 - 102.348 points)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 100 (102.180 - 102.844 points)
- POI | 102.500 & 104.000 points
- MSB | HTF = HH/17 (103,820 points) & HH/20 (102,992) | MTF = LL/23 (103,572 points)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (104.370 points) | ITD = 0.618 - 0.88 (102.010 - 102.504 points)
- MA | 50 (104,642 points)
- POI | 104.500 & 105.000 points
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (104.699 points)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bullish trend, suggesting continued positive momentum.
- The RSI indicator is about to break the 70% line, slowly arriving at the overbought zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the shadow of the candle has a greater length than the wick that the candle casts.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred above the HH of 2017 (103,820), which would thus serve as support once confirmed.
> In addition, last week we successfully broke the lower downtrend channel and continued to move higher without testing it.
> We are at a very strong HTF resistance = the middle trendline of the Superior Bullish Trend Channel (origin 2004).
> The next HTF resistance would be the LH of 2023(104,699), which in combination with the top of the megaphone trend resistance, will be a very strong hurdle.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (102.824 points) | ITD = 0.328 - 0.786 (103.845 - 103.224 points)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 100 (102.430 - 102.340 points)
- POI | 102.500 & 104.000 points
- MSB | HTF = HH/17 (103,820 points) & HH/20 (102,992) | MTF = LL/23 (103,572 points)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (104.370 points) | ITD = 0.786 - 0.88 (104.501- 105.106 points)
- MA | 50 (104.260 points)
- POI | 104.500 & 105.000 points
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (104.699 points) & LH/23 (104.403 points)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bullish trend, suggesting continued positive momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed the 70% line, continuing to show a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
MONTHLY CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle formed a "BULLISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a possible uptrend continuation
> The candle tested the mid-trend line of the HTF trend channel (Yellow) and has perceived it as resistance.
> The Higher High of 2017 (103,820) served as resistance and could not be broken - continues to serve as resistance.
> The Higher Low of 2020 (102,992) served as resistance and was successfully broken - this now serves as support.
> The next HTF resistance is the top of the Megaphone Trend Resistance (Brown), which will be a very strong hurdle.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> the candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the shadow of the candle is longer than the wick that the candle casts = buyer strength
> The market broke the very strong HTF resistance = the mid-trend line of the Superior Bullish Trend Channel (Yellow - origin 2004) last week and tested and confirmed it last week = support.
> Megaphone Trend Resistance (Brown), was breached again and confirmed as support this week.
> Further Bullish price action can be expected, targeting the liquidity of the next "Lower High" at 105,883 points as the next target.
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bullish trend, indicating continued positive momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed the 75% line, indicating an incipient overbought zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> the candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the shadow of the candle is longer than the wick that the candle casts = buyer strength
> The market tested and confirmed - AGAIN - the very strong HTF resistance = the mid-trend line of the Superior Bullish Trend Channel (Yellow - origin 2004) = support.
> The Megaphone Trend Resistance (Brown), was also - RENEWED - tested and confirmed = support.
> Further Bullish price action can be expected, which targets the liquidity of the next "Higher High" at 106,560 points as the next target.
> Additional resistance is experienced from Fibonacci levels 0.786 & 0.88 covering a range of 106.134 - 106.947 points.
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the chart image below.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bullish trend, indicating continued positive momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed the 82% line, indicating an incipient overbought zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
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