DXY/ USD: FOMC MINUTES & FED TARULLO/ DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
Updated
June FOMC Minutes Highlights:
- FOMC Minutes: Fed Officials Divided on Rate Path Amid Uncertain Economic Outlook
-FOMC Minutes: Members Said Prudent to Wait for More Labor Market Data, Brexit Vote Before Raising Rates
-FOMC Minutes: Prior to Brexit Vote, Staff Saw Uncertainty Holding Down Investment in U.K.
-FOMC Minutes: Members Judged It Appropriate to Continue to Leave Policy Options Open, Maintain Flexibility
-FOMC Minutes: Staff Saw 2H GDP 'a Little Slower' Than in Previous Forecast
-FOMC Minutes: Most Officials Said UK Referendum on EU Could Generate Financial Turbulence
-FOMC Minutes: Staff Saw Risks to Forecast from Developments Abroad 'Skewed to the Downside'
-FOMC Minutes: Officials in June Said Pace of Labor Market Gains Slowed, Economic Growth Picked Up
-FOMC Minutes: Most Participants Saw Risks to Economic Projections as 'Broadly Balanced'
-FOMC Minutes: Many Participants saw Risk to GDP, Inflation Forecasts 'Weighted to the Downside'
-FOMC Minutes: Officials Said Job Gains Diminished in Intermeeting Period Although Unemployment Rate Fell
-FOMC Minutes: Some Participants Saw Risks to Unemployment Rate Forecast 'Tilted to the Upside'
-FOMC Minutes: Soft Readings on Business Investment Behind Lowered Participant GDP Forecasts
-FOMC Minutes: Most Members Indicated Recent Slowdown in Payroll Gains Increased Uncertainty About Labor -Market
-FOMC Minutes Showed Officials Divided on Reasons For Weaker May Payrolls Growth
-FOMC Minutes: However Many Participants Said Underlying Pace of Job Gains Slowed From Recent Months
-FOMC Minutes: Many Participants Said Neutral Rate of Interest Likely to Be Lower Than Estimated Earlier
-FOMC Minutes: Most Officials Expected to See 'Continued Progress' Toward 2% Inflation Target
-FOMC Minutes: Some Participants Said Sluggish Business Investment Could Portend Slowdown
Fed Tarullo & Dudley Speech highlights:
NY Fed Dudley: Current Treasury Yield A Concern
Tarullo: Global Financial System 'Reasonably Well Prepared' For Brexit Shock
Tarullo: Have to Watch to See How Brexit Macroeconomic Developments Play Out
Tarullo: Brexit Response in U.S. Gone About As We Expected
Tarullo: There Won't Be A Moment Where We Say 'Brexit Is Done'
Tarullo: Right Level of Interest Rate Depends on Factors Affecting Economy
Tarullo: 'This Is Not An Economy That's Running Hot'
Tarullo: Fed Probably Not Providing As Much Accommodation As People Think
Tarullo: Were Economy to Pick Up Rapidly, Fed Has Tools to Respond Appropriately
Tarullo: Better For Fed to Wait For More Evidence of Rising Inflation
Tarullo: Want to Be More Convinced Underlying Inflation Closer to 2%
Tarullo: Low Rates Can Create Financial Instability, But That May Not Justify Raising Rates
Tarullo: No 'Immediate Concerns' About Financial Instability, Asset Bubbles
Tarullo: Still Has Concerns About Liquidity Broadly, Especially Outside Banks
Tarullo: Cutting Capital Buffer Could Make Loans More Available 'If There Is Demand'
Tarullo: Policy Easing by Other Central Banks Can Have Disinflationary Effect on U.S. Economy
Tarullo: Wants More Evidence of Inflation Before Raising Interest Rates
- FOMC Minutes: Fed Officials Divided on Rate Path Amid Uncertain Economic Outlook
-FOMC Minutes: Members Said Prudent to Wait for More Labor Market Data, Brexit Vote Before Raising Rates
-FOMC Minutes: Prior to Brexit Vote, Staff Saw Uncertainty Holding Down Investment in U.K.
-FOMC Minutes: Members Judged It Appropriate to Continue to Leave Policy Options Open, Maintain Flexibility
-FOMC Minutes: Staff Saw 2H GDP 'a Little Slower' Than in Previous Forecast
-FOMC Minutes: Most Officials Said UK Referendum on EU Could Generate Financial Turbulence
-FOMC Minutes: Staff Saw Risks to Forecast from Developments Abroad 'Skewed to the Downside'
-FOMC Minutes: Officials in June Said Pace of Labor Market Gains Slowed, Economic Growth Picked Up
-FOMC Minutes: Most Participants Saw Risks to Economic Projections as 'Broadly Balanced'
-FOMC Minutes: Many Participants saw Risk to GDP, Inflation Forecasts 'Weighted to the Downside'
-FOMC Minutes: Officials Said Job Gains Diminished in Intermeeting Period Although Unemployment Rate Fell
-FOMC Minutes: Some Participants Saw Risks to Unemployment Rate Forecast 'Tilted to the Upside'
-FOMC Minutes: Soft Readings on Business Investment Behind Lowered Participant GDP Forecasts
-FOMC Minutes: Most Members Indicated Recent Slowdown in Payroll Gains Increased Uncertainty About Labor -Market
-FOMC Minutes Showed Officials Divided on Reasons For Weaker May Payrolls Growth
-FOMC Minutes: However Many Participants Said Underlying Pace of Job Gains Slowed From Recent Months
-FOMC Minutes: Many Participants Said Neutral Rate of Interest Likely to Be Lower Than Estimated Earlier
-FOMC Minutes: Most Officials Expected to See 'Continued Progress' Toward 2% Inflation Target
-FOMC Minutes: Some Participants Said Sluggish Business Investment Could Portend Slowdown
Fed Tarullo & Dudley Speech highlights:
NY Fed Dudley: Current Treasury Yield A Concern
Tarullo: Global Financial System 'Reasonably Well Prepared' For Brexit Shock
Tarullo: Have to Watch to See How Brexit Macroeconomic Developments Play Out
Tarullo: Brexit Response in U.S. Gone About As We Expected
Tarullo: There Won't Be A Moment Where We Say 'Brexit Is Done'
Tarullo: Right Level of Interest Rate Depends on Factors Affecting Economy
Tarullo: 'This Is Not An Economy That's Running Hot'
Tarullo: Fed Probably Not Providing As Much Accommodation As People Think
Tarullo: Were Economy to Pick Up Rapidly, Fed Has Tools to Respond Appropriately
Tarullo: Better For Fed to Wait For More Evidence of Rising Inflation
Tarullo: Want to Be More Convinced Underlying Inflation Closer to 2%
Tarullo: Low Rates Can Create Financial Instability, But That May Not Justify Raising Rates
Tarullo: No 'Immediate Concerns' About Financial Instability, Asset Bubbles
Tarullo: Still Has Concerns About Liquidity Broadly, Especially Outside Banks
Tarullo: Cutting Capital Buffer Could Make Loans More Available 'If There Is Demand'
Tarullo: Policy Easing by Other Central Banks Can Have Disinflationary Effect on U.S. Economy
Tarullo: Wants More Evidence of Inflation Before Raising Interest Rates
Note
Fed minutes were largely dovish, with members seeing future GDP/ Inflation "skewed to the downside", whilst future unemployment rate data largely "tilted to the upside". Minutes also showed a divided fed on the future rate increase path
Mintues showed Brexit likely to cause "financial turbulence"
Fed Tarullo was largely dovish on regarding US economics, whilst being upbeat regarding brexit - holding several of the typical fed lines, but going out of his way to stress that the economy is not "running hot" and emphasised wanting to be more confident in the underlying inflation situation before rising rates with several quotes regarding the headline matter.
Tarullo also echo'd similarities from Dudley and Willaims yesterday regarding Brexit, emphasising the "uncertainty", however, he followed Williams' tune on the margin by being quite upbeat, saying the global economy was "well prepared" and the US response had gone "as expected".
Fed Dudley interestingly went out of his way to mention the low level of UST yields, citing them to be a "concern".
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