2024/11/13
Another 48h - DXY Bulls More Or Less Around Annual Highs 2025
it seems like that higher for longer will be longer 2025 as we thought!“
but how does this affect the us yield curve? rate cut expectations?”
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual High 2024
106.490 : 2024/05/01 - 1st Failed New Annual High 2024
106.130 : 2024/06/26 - 2nd Failed New Annual High 2024
106.023 : 2024/11/12 - last price action
The bulls are currently conquering both the downward trend from April 2024 & May 2024 and the downward trend from May 2024 & June 2024. After the big w trend reversal formation reached its low point in the following summer 2024 (August 2024) at just above 100 points . It's a bit scary - but I'm not complaining. What is crucial for the remaining two trading days of this week, i.e. tomorrow Thursday and or the day after tomorrow Friday, is that the gap to the w trend reversal formation continues to widen. Which, for better or worse, is likely to be maintained, because the FED will, for better or worse, be kept more or less higher for longer in 2025 (in terms of interest rate cuts). Therefore, it should not be surprising if the previous annual high of 2025 will not (yet) be left behind by the weekend. And the price action is between 106 points and 105 points. To take a breather - if bullish investors and/or traders realize their booking profits.
“Analysts generally regard the stock market as the passive reflection of investors' expectations. But in fact, it is an active force in shaping them.”
George Soros
104.951 points : 2024/11/09 - last price action
104.426 points : 2024/08/02 - W Trend Reversal High
102.160 points : 2024/08/05 - W Trend Reversal Low
As a reminder; this run to an exit, on Friday and/or following Monday, at the beginning of August 2024, exacerbated the feeling of panic - and so the price action in
DXY and other asset classes moved as they did. The key to the market turbulence was and still is to be found in the monetary policy of the FED and the BOJ. After all, the circumstances that supported the record highs of the global markets this year 2024 were the high interest rates in the USA (5.25% - 5.50) and/or the low interest rates in Japan (0.25% after the interest rate hike last week before). Traders and/or Investors were and are still able to borrow in yen, which even until the last week before the w trend reversal formation, we had in 
USDJPY multi-decade lows, until the start of July 2024 incl. in higher-performing dollar assets such as technology stocks 
NDX and/or US10Y U.S. bonds. This process, which is called "carry trade" plunged during these two days - Friday, the 2nd 2024 and/or Monday, the 5th 2024 - on fears about the U.S. economy. And so, at the beginning of August 2024, expectations changed that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates faster and deeper than the majority of traders and/or investors previously thought - to support the US economy. And what happens in such scenarios if you get caught on the wrong foot in terms of monetary policy? Right - the majority's expectations change! And what about the price action? Correct - that's right also. The price action also rotates! How long? How high? How low? I don`t know! But I know that I will continue to study this daily, here with you! Which is why I've been emphasizing again and again since I started "Another 48 h - DXY ..." that the W formation is currently the main focus, not just from the POV (Point Of View) of the technical analysis.Trump back in office in 2025 and/or also the fact that the FED will remain higher for longer. At least not as quickly and deeply as many investors and traders already expected. These should be the current drivers for the bulls in
DXY ! Or? Because the US inflation rose again today by +0.2% compared to the previous year - and therefore remains relatively high. The US economy's outgrowth of stagflation is well underway. And it currently seems to be succeeding - not succeeding - from month to month (inflation) and from quarter to quarter (economic growth). The big frightening issue of tariffs and inflation in the USA remains, "although nothing is eaten as hot as it is cooked" - as we colloquially say here in Germany. The problem of tariffs is obvious - and/or also the aim of these measures! Foreign goods, products and/or services are made more expensive in the domestic economy - so that us taxpayers and us consumers consume "Made In USA". Of course - Trump is not president of the world, but president of the USA. A pleasure as the left-wing green mass psychosis and/or mass psychosis, under the guise of liberal democracy, including numerous private good friends on my side, collapses like a castle in the air - like Babylon. A media psychosis and/or media neurosis in our so-called West. A pleasure - once you realize it. Which will only send us all involved to a better level up or out in 2025, after the Trump victory, regardless of the economic policy orientation, let alone political preferences.Be that as it may, it remains to be seen whether the tariffs will come at all? And/or will it trigger another inflation bubble? Because if, at the same time as the tariffs, the domestic US economy were to compensate for the lack of supply by offering products, goods and/or services to the domestic economic market, it would be a brilliant, exemplary economic policy move in our so-called West, is likely to find many imitators on the political conservative freedom-loving right. And the left-wing green economy, which only cost us money under the guise of liberal democracy, could then finally be buried. Yes, even be replaced. Will that come in 2025? I don't know! Not even whether it will work with Elon Musk - but it goes to the root of evil, in the USA. Because the USA is the largest debt organization in the world - and people like you and me, in the form of price action on the financial market, who invest and/or trade the USD and US stocks and US bonds, and/or also US goods, US products, or use US services, like TradingView, doing it only mainly because we consider the USA to be a trustworthy economic partner. And if the US actually reduced the budget deficit and the trade balance, then the US would have actually implemented MAGA in economic policy - would be on the economic policy path of this slogan. Because the alternative to the USA, the so-called BRICS states, which all now represent a real alternative, have become large precisely even because of the US budget deficit and/or also the US budget balance! Why else? Because the big hegemon has been selling well since the beginning of 2000 - but at the expense of all non-Americans. And that in the truest sense of the word.
With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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