DXY - Prediction & Correlation with BTC
Hey everyone. I hope everyone is doing well. I have A VERY VALUEABLE chart here which contains some valuable information for predicting where 
BTCUSD will be heading. Also note that altcoins move in tandem with BTC especially when it makes a big move!
If you're new to BTC or are otherwise unaware, BTC has had a strong correlation with the DXY over its history. Whichever way the DXY is moving, BTC is USUALLY moving the opposite direction. If you go back and look at the start of BTC's previous 2-3 bull runs, you will notice that they start at around the same time the DXY is topping out. With that said, It's important to note that the DXY is currently at a resistance level which you can see on the chart. This will be the 3rd attempt at this resistance level which is significant because when learning technical-analysis, you learn that the 3rd attempt is usually a MAKE-OR-BREAK type of situation. Either you break through resistance and turn it into support, OR you get rejected a 3rd time which usually leads to the current SUPPORT level breaking under it as well.
These are MONTHLY candles. Notice how the previous 2 rejections at this resistance show decent sized "wicks" at the top where they were rejected. Candle "wicks" are usually a good sign of a trend reversal coming, especially when there are multiple wicks at the same resistance/support levels. There are just over 4 days left in this month so if the DXY is to get rejected here (VERY UNLIKELY), it needs to start dropping fast. I don't think that is going to happen this time as the DXY still appears to be strong on the smaller timeframes. However, IF the DXY does somehow get rejected here, It's very likely that BTC will bounce and see a major trend reversal. Like I said, I think that scenario is highly unlikely and the most likely outcome is DXY continues UPWARDS, and BTC continues DOWN.
I've included a couple indicators which support the IDEA. The RSI indicator is showing a higher-high, where the price action is showing slightly lower-highs. This usually is a sign of strength compared to the previous rejections indicated by the yellow circles on the chart. It is a good indicator that the DXY has more strength now than previous attempts, and will likely BREAK ABOVE resistance and continue UPWARDS! I've also included the MACD, which I often like to use along with the RSI. At the previous 2 rejections, the MACD indicator had crossed down and was looking very weak. The MACD is in a MUCH BETTER position now and is actually looking VERY STRONG.
Both of these indicators suggest that the DXY has more strength than it did at previous times at this level. This supports my idea that the DXY will continue upwards and also supports my previous charts showing BTC will likely continue downwards.
Notice I drew a line which is just speculation showing a possible path that I think is likely for the DXY going upwards. The line shows the DXY eventually getting rejected at a major resistance level from 2000-2001. What's important here is if the DXY does continue upwards to the 2000-2001 resistance level, It will likely be around the same time as the next BTC halving event which is in MARCH 2024. THIS MAKES PERFECT SENSE as that's around the same time I expect BTC to start another MAJOR BULL RUN to 100K+. HISTORICALLY, over the past decade, EVERY BTC BULL RUN started right after the BTC halving event. The next BTC halving event is MARCH 02, 2024.
For those who do not know, A BTC halving event happens approximately every 4 years. The halving events specifically reduce the amount of BTC that BTC MINERS earn by 50% from that point forward. So, over time, It becomes harder and harder to earn BTC and BTC becomes much more scarce. Eventually (in year 2140) the last BTC will be mined and no more BTC will ever be created again. This is what gives BTC value, makes it deflationary, and also the reason we always see a bull run after the halving events.
Well, I feel I've rambled on and on enough now. Hopefully this information helped some of you. If you guys like this idea please Like , follow, and share! I appreciate it A LOT as I always put a LOT of time into these ideas, especially the ones I post to TradingView. Also feel free to comment and leave me your thoughts. Thanks again
BTCUSD will be heading. Also note that altcoins move in tandem with BTC especially when it makes a big move!If you're new to BTC or are otherwise unaware, BTC has had a strong correlation with the DXY over its history. Whichever way the DXY is moving, BTC is USUALLY moving the opposite direction. If you go back and look at the start of BTC's previous 2-3 bull runs, you will notice that they start at around the same time the DXY is topping out. With that said, It's important to note that the DXY is currently at a resistance level which you can see on the chart. This will be the 3rd attempt at this resistance level which is significant because when learning technical-analysis, you learn that the 3rd attempt is usually a MAKE-OR-BREAK type of situation. Either you break through resistance and turn it into support, OR you get rejected a 3rd time which usually leads to the current SUPPORT level breaking under it as well.
These are MONTHLY candles. Notice how the previous 2 rejections at this resistance show decent sized "wicks" at the top where they were rejected. Candle "wicks" are usually a good sign of a trend reversal coming, especially when there are multiple wicks at the same resistance/support levels. There are just over 4 days left in this month so if the DXY is to get rejected here (VERY UNLIKELY), it needs to start dropping fast. I don't think that is going to happen this time as the DXY still appears to be strong on the smaller timeframes. However, IF the DXY does somehow get rejected here, It's very likely that BTC will bounce and see a major trend reversal. Like I said, I think that scenario is highly unlikely and the most likely outcome is DXY continues UPWARDS, and BTC continues DOWN.
I've included a couple indicators which support the IDEA. The RSI indicator is showing a higher-high, where the price action is showing slightly lower-highs. This usually is a sign of strength compared to the previous rejections indicated by the yellow circles on the chart. It is a good indicator that the DXY has more strength now than previous attempts, and will likely BREAK ABOVE resistance and continue UPWARDS! I've also included the MACD, which I often like to use along with the RSI. At the previous 2 rejections, the MACD indicator had crossed down and was looking very weak. The MACD is in a MUCH BETTER position now and is actually looking VERY STRONG.
Both of these indicators suggest that the DXY has more strength than it did at previous times at this level. This supports my idea that the DXY will continue upwards and also supports my previous charts showing BTC will likely continue downwards.
Notice I drew a line which is just speculation showing a possible path that I think is likely for the DXY going upwards. The line shows the DXY eventually getting rejected at a major resistance level from 2000-2001. What's important here is if the DXY does continue upwards to the 2000-2001 resistance level, It will likely be around the same time as the next BTC halving event which is in MARCH 2024. THIS MAKES PERFECT SENSE as that's around the same time I expect BTC to start another MAJOR BULL RUN to 100K+. HISTORICALLY, over the past decade, EVERY BTC BULL RUN started right after the BTC halving event. The next BTC halving event is MARCH 02, 2024.
For those who do not know, A BTC halving event happens approximately every 4 years. The halving events specifically reduce the amount of BTC that BTC MINERS earn by 50% from that point forward. So, over time, It becomes harder and harder to earn BTC and BTC becomes much more scarce. Eventually (in year 2140) the last BTC will be mined and no more BTC will ever be created again. This is what gives BTC value, makes it deflationary, and also the reason we always see a bull run after the halving events.
Well, I feel I've rambled on and on enough now. Hopefully this information helped some of you. If you guys like this idea please Like , follow, and share! I appreciate it A LOT as I always put a LOT of time into these ideas, especially the ones I post to TradingView. Also feel free to comment and leave me your thoughts. Thanks again
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