2024/11/16
Another 48h - DXY Around Annual Highs 2024 And/Or 2023
“rally continues from annual low to higher annual highs!
only 10 of the last 35 trading days were bearish red?”
Sudden rethink on Wall Street? From anticipation to euphoria? Now that Trump is coming back into the White House in January 2025 - friend of the working class and also of WallStreet! What could possibly go wrong? And that's exactly where the problem seems to be! Because if all of us who are involved in the price action have the knowledge, think like that and have already bought or sold accordingly? Who else should sell or buy at this level, on this terrain of price action, in the various asset classes? That's why I think that the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts in recent weeks, which were too low and too quick, were, in retrospect, a bit too offensive. And or but, as FED Powell himself said: "Rate cuts are still underway, but there’s no hurry".
Anyway, probably one of the central questions for the capital markets is the possible return of inflation. Which ultimately may be the reason why the euphoria over the Trump comeback disappeared as quickly as it came. Inflation is rightly seen as a major cause of the impoverishment of large sections of the population. Bidenomics and, above all, the Greens from my home country of Germany, which I personally strongly supported between the 1990s and the early 2010s, with their left-wing social democratic policies under the guise of a liberal, free society, simply cost too much. And have now become “degrowth fetishists”. Which you even accept with approval in order to cultivate stagflation, not monetary material prosperity. It is therefore not easy for fellow human beings all over the world, including my humble self, to outdo inflation - because most of those who are involved in Wall Street also have another main activity. And the current cost of living is rising, i.e. inflation, faster than private growth (i.e. your own wallet). And that's why the key interest rate of every currency is essential - but never the only reason. But for better or worse, it is more or less the most important influencing factor, especially in our so-called West, in relation to the prosperity of any society.
“I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong.”
George Soros
- Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
- Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
- Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
These are the 3 most important questions regarding price action in DXY. And which we should keep in mind - and let it be answered daily in the form of the price action, to learn may be day by day (not) something new.
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
106.673 : 2024/11/15 - last price action
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual Year High 2024
104.447 : 2024/08/01 - High Of The W Trend Reversal Formation
102.160 : 2024/08/05 - Low Of The W Trend Reversal Formation
100.157 : 2024/09/27 - Annual Year Low 2024
These are the most important price actions of
DXY . It is astonishing that there were only 35 trading days from the annual low in 2024 to the annual high in 2025 - i.e. 7 full calendar weeks. And that before, during, and or even after Trump's comeback to the White House. What does that mean? I don't know it! What I do know is that the US economy is now growing more or less faster than US inflation. So it seems that the US economy could to be growing out of the so-called US stagflation. Which is fundamentally negative and bearish for the DXY . Because then the US key interest rate should be lowered rather than raised. But compared to the other currencies in the basket, the US economy is still doing better - and the key interest rate is also higher. So that probably isn't the main reason - but it's still one. Because the "carry trade" is likely to continue like in the 
USDJPY - although no longer with an even greater gap; but still. No - I think that the expectations of lower US interest rates were simply too high!? And maybe that's why the DXY is rising more strongly than previously thought?! We probably still have "Higher For Longer" with regards to the FED - and that's due to a relatively better US economy compared to the others. Which is also, more or less, sooner or later, (not) reflected in the DXY .With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.