DXY Yearly Analysis

Updated

DXY will visit the area 93-89.

S1: if it break 89 then we have ABC Wave

S2: if it rebound and return inside the channel so maybe we have a big uptrend wave , then we will be in wave 3

Note

Within the yearly time frame, we are currently observing two potential scenarios for DXY:

1-WXY Wave Scenario:
* We are in the process of forming the first leg (Wave A) of the y wave.
* Wave A is projected to reach between 80-70.
* Following this, a rebound to 100-106 is expected as part of Wave B.
* The sequence will conclude with a decline to the 70-60 area, marking the formation of Wave C.

2- New Big Upward Trend Scenario:
* Completion of Wave 1 has been observed.
* Currently, Wave 2 is in formation, which is anticipated to conclude at the end of Wave 4 from the larger Wave 1.

In both scenarios, a key observation is that the DXY is expected to reach the 93-89 area. Upon reaching this critical juncture, a re-evaluation of the chart will be essential to determine which of the two scenarios is unfolding.

Note

I've taken another look at my analysis of the DXY for the year, and while the end result of my predictions remains the same, I've noticed some inconsistencies with the standard Elliott Wave Theory. I'm going to outline these specific points in my upcoming comments. It's essential to recognize and address these discrepancies to ensure our analysis is as accurate as possible.

Note

Regarding the Sharp Green Rise at the Chart's Beginning (Labeled as Wave B):

Upon reviewing the sharp upward move at the start of the chart, initially labeled as Wave B, I realize that naming such a significant and steep rise as a B wave might not align with conventional EWT principles. Typically, B waves are corrective and less dynamic compared to impulse waves.

Note

On the Decline from 163 to 70:

This segment was previously divided between the C wave of the first sequence and the A and B waves of the second sequence. However, applying the Kennedy Channeling Technique to this decline indicates that it might be part of a single corrective pattern. This observation suggests that my initial segmentation of this decline may have been incorrect, requiring a reevaluation of the wave labels in this section.

Note

The Final C Wave (Five Ascending Waves):

The last C wave, comprising five ascending waves, was analyzed with two possible outcomes after reaching the 93-89 area: a corrective decline or the start of a larger bullish wave. However, a reexamination of the wave's trend angle, which ranges between 19 and 28 degrees, suggests this rise might be a corrective rally rather than the beginning of a significant bullish wave. This finding potentially alters the interpretation of this segment and its implications for future DXY movements.

Note

I'm preparing a new, updated analysis that corrects these points and offers further insights. Once this revised analysis is complete, I will post it here along with a link for easy access. Stay tuned for this new perspective and more detailed evaluation!

Trade closed manually

new analysis url

USD's Uncertain Horizon: Will the Dollar Weather Global Changes?

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