2025/02/17 - 8th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Hardly Any Price Actions On Today's Presidents Day
“bears took over the terrain - last upward trend & last yearly highs!
why is this important? why bearish now? when bullish again?”
European stock prices
EUSTX50 rose today, Monday, February 17, 2025 - led by a sharp rise in defense company shares. Governments across the continent appealed to the public throughout the day today, following the Munich Security Conference at the weekend, for an urgent need for increased military spending. And so it comes as no surprise to any attentive trader or investor that the pan-European Stoxx 600 
SXXP closed Monday's session with a gain of +0.54%. The increase was driven by strong profits at major defense companies. Germany's Renk Group 
R3NK gained +16%, while Rheinmetall 
RHM rose +14%. Sweden's Saab 
SAAB_B gained +16% and BAE Systems $LSE:BA in the UK also rose almost +8%, marking its best daily performance since July 2022.Expectations of higher defense spending today went beyond stocks and primarily affected the bond markets. Traders and/or investors adjusted their positions based on the likelihood that governments would have to take on more debt to finance military budgets. And so it goes without saying that the yield on 10-year British government bonds
GB10Y , known as gilts, rose 5 basis points to +4.55%, while the yield on 2-year gilts GB02Y climbed almost 3 basis points to +4.23%. In the euro area, the yield on the ten-year federal bond 
DE10Y , a benchmark for European government bonds, rose by seven basis points to +2.49%. Yields on Italian 
IT10Y and/or 
FR10Y French bonds also rose. It almost seems that while the need to increase defense spending has been widely discussed in recent years, there now appears to be a greater sense of urgency among European leaders. What, for better or worse, more or less motivated traders and/or investors to act like this today - to react to the emerging militarism.- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again?
That was the question of the last 7th calendar week. To which we have to answer clearly with NO. The uptrend was important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). And as important, as long as traders and/or investors were trading and/or investing the
DXY above this extended trendline of more or less above 108.600 and/or 108.900 points during last week - but on last Wednesday, the 21th 2025 the last time. The importance of the upward trend that has expired becomes even more important as the annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 have also been broken downwards. So we learned that the bears have temporarily taken over the territory for both reasons.“A boom/bust process occurs only when market prices find a way to influence the so-called fundamentals that are supposed to be reflected in market prices.”
George Soros
- Will The Bulls Come Back Above 107.348 Points, The Annual High Of 2023?
That is the question of this 8th calendar week. Because a price action below would and will also retrospectively confirm the trend reversal formation of the price action development above the annual high of 2023, namely the 107.348 points.
110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.774 : 2025/02/17 - last price action
106.566 : 2025/02/14 - Last Week Low
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
Three bearish trading days in a row - on which both the short-term upward trend was broken and/or the annual high of 2023 was broken. What does that mean? The bears are pressing the bull horns in
DXY ! Why? I don't know! But it looks like a classic trend reversal - bearish trend reversal formation including the accompanying circumstances surrounding Donald Trump's tariff policy. Namely, as a bull: “to buy on rumors and sell on facts!” - and that seems to be possible in the case of the price action of the DXY ?! Is that actually the case? I don't know that either! But we know that this week opens softly because of today's holiday day - even president's day! Hardly price action today - as you can see. From this pov (point of view) more tomorrow. But don't expect me to gloss over the price action for you - just so the bulls don't become disillusioned. I would rather learn something - we learn something. Which is why we are paying the greatest attention to last week's low and/or the annual high of 2023, for tomorrow! And that is 106.566 points. Tomorrow WallStreet will be open again. And we can also see in the DXY chart that in the 3 hours before, up to the daily low last Friday, the daily low was and is also the weekly low. Hence? Bearish this week! At least not until the interim high from Friday, before Wall Street's opening bell of 107,086 points, will be recaptured by bulls. But I personally would like to see at least a price action of 107,348 points again over the course of the week - so that at least I am not bearish for the DXY, like today.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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