Good day Traders,
Take a moment to go through my outlook of DXY.
Currently, DXY is moving within a clearly defined ascending channel, showing a short-term bullish correction after the sharp drop seen last week. Price is respecting the channel's boundaries, making higher highs and higher lows, characteristic of a pullback phase in a broader bearish move.
However, attention is now drawn to the resistance zone around 103.80 – 104.19 zone. This area coincides with:
1. Top of the channel (confluence resistance)
2. A harmonic pattern completion zone or reversal block
3. A previous structural support-turned-resistance area
In my view, the recent price action suggests a potential reversal at or just above this zone, leading to a new bearish leg that could see DXY breaking below the current trend channel and targeting sub-102.56 and 102.00 levels.
From the fundamentals, it appears that optimism around a trade deal is helping the USD recover short-term. The market may be pricing in hope, not reality. If sentiment shifts, or deal details (between US and China) disappoint, a swift reversal is highly likely—aligning with the anticipated turn near 104.00 from the technicals.
I think this makes the current zone a high-alert area for dollar bulls and bears alike. A fake-out to the upside into this supply zone could trap late buyers before the larger macro and technical forces push the dollar back down. By implication, we then expect to see a slight drop then rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD etc.
Cheers and Happy trading!
Take a moment to go through my outlook of DXY.
Currently, DXY is moving within a clearly defined ascending channel, showing a short-term bullish correction after the sharp drop seen last week. Price is respecting the channel's boundaries, making higher highs and higher lows, characteristic of a pullback phase in a broader bearish move.
However, attention is now drawn to the resistance zone around 103.80 – 104.19 zone. This area coincides with:
1. Top of the channel (confluence resistance)
2. A harmonic pattern completion zone or reversal block
3. A previous structural support-turned-resistance area
In my view, the recent price action suggests a potential reversal at or just above this zone, leading to a new bearish leg that could see DXY breaking below the current trend channel and targeting sub-102.56 and 102.00 levels.
From the fundamentals, it appears that optimism around a trade deal is helping the USD recover short-term. The market may be pricing in hope, not reality. If sentiment shifts, or deal details (between US and China) disappoint, a swift reversal is highly likely—aligning with the anticipated turn near 104.00 from the technicals.
I think this makes the current zone a high-alert area for dollar bulls and bears alike. A fake-out to the upside into this supply zone could trap late buyers before the larger macro and technical forces push the dollar back down. By implication, we then expect to see a slight drop then rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD etc.
Cheers and Happy trading!
Trade active
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to reach the previously anticipated supply zone yesterday before breaking out of the ascending channel to the downside. This shift signaled a short-term bearish momentum.
Currently, price is sitting within a key demand zone (blue), which could support bullish reactions. From this zone, there is a higher probability of a rebound toward the 103.966 – 104.438 region — a well-marked supply zone where sellers could re-enter the market.
Two likely scenarios are now in play:
1. Bullish Rebound: I expect a bounce from the current demand zone which could see DXY rally back toward the 103.966–104.438 supply area. This move may align with renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, possibly driven by macroeconomic catalysts or risk sentiment while we await reciprocal tarrif today and China 34% tarrif announcement tomorrow.
2. Bearish Continuation: If price fails to hold above 101.982 and especially 101.276, it would invalidate the bullish setup. This could open the door to a deeper decline, likely dragging DXY below 101.00, with implications for USD weakness across major currency pairs.
These are what I'm watching out for in the coming days.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.