2024/11/20
Another 48h - The Sun Rose Again For DXY Bulls With +0.5% Today
“lower daily highs for the last four trading days - but not today!
today's daily high was also the week's high - can there be more?”
With the words "The Bitcoin apostle Michael Saylor, head of Microstrategy, gives Warren Buffett the advice to buy Bitcoin instead of holding cash (or buying short-term US government bonds)!", my friend, an analyst at a cfd online broker house, began today our conversation - in which we exchange ideas daily, irregularly, in a casual, non-binding manner about price action, about the economy, politics, God, and the world. At the same time, I also thought smugly that if someone thinks they have to give the old master
BRK.A advice on how he manages his money, alarm bells should ring. And that, while Michael Saylor and 
MSTR are using an increasingly heavily leveraged scheme: he takes on debt in order to buy 
BTC1! - if BTC1! rises, his MSTR assets also rise, which is why he can take on even more debt in order to buy even more BTC1! . The rise in the price action of MSTR shows the current extreme BTC1! euphoria - and that goes well until it doesn't go well anymore. Until there are no new buyers at a certain price action who want to sell to those who want to have BTC1! . The yield curve, i.e. fixed-interest securities, is actually a more than good alternative. What I also always recommend to my followers - since 2 years meanwhile. Think about it, for a while: 50% fixed-interest securities, over 1 year? That's right - +4.0% and a little more. What more could you want? +4.0% with a fixed interest rate, almost no risk of default. The USA has always paid. This is their capitalist business model. That's why the US financial market is so big; the biggest in the world. That's why i`m, as a non-American, also so self-conscious. And my colleagues in the supermarket, with whom I serve at the counter every day, such as at 
WMT (in the USA), wonder when I think about the price action with them. Let alone Nancy, Samuel's wife, from Lille (France) - but that would go too far at this point. However, paying too much for something doesn't just happen in the financial market, such as also in every supermarket, in the economy, and/or in the financial market, even like i.e. BTC1! , but also in politics. Although I don't want to and can't rule out the possibility that BTC1! won't rise above 100,000!? And/Or even then it will never fall under it again?! Anyway, expensive price actions don't just exist for private individuals, but also in politics. Here too, and on an even larger scale, taxes are levied in order to take money out of people's pockets with the help of taxes. With the help of taxes that no one needs, let alone serve the good of society, but which only cost the majority of the population, i.e. all taxpayers and consumers, which we all are have to pay - and that all in the name of clean, green energy, under which cloak of freedom. What sooner or later ends in a stagflation, as always in an engineer-driven economic policy, where you have to function and not offer goods, products, services that not only benefit the taxpayer and consumer, but are also available cheaply. Good & cheap - drill, drill, drill baby - I hope that Trump and/or his team get some economic policy like this for the USA, without (green) imagination. And/or deliver geopolitically for world peace once again, like between 2017 and/or 2021, as he was the first US president which hadn't started a war, under his watch, after WWII. In contrast to Joe Biden, who authorizes Ukraine to use long-range US weapons in Russia. And is currently threatening to worsen the conflict in eastern Ukraine. But that's going too far at this point - so let's deal with the 
DXY …
“How good are markets in predicting real-world developments? Reading the record, it is striking how many calamities that I anticipated did not in fact materialize. Financial markets constantly anticipate events, both on the positive and on the negative side, which fail to materialize exactly because they have been anticipated. It is an old joke that the stock market has predicted seven of the last two recessions. Markets are often wrong.”
George Soros
- Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
- Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
- Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
106.673 : 2024/11/15 - last price action
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual Year High 2024
104.447 : 2024/08/01 - High Of The W Trend Reversal Formation
102.160 : 2024/08/05 - Low Of The W Trend Reversal Formation
100.157 : 2024/09/27 - Annual Year Low 2024
These are the most important price actions of
DXY . It is astonishing that there were only 35 trading days from the annual low in 2024 to the annual high in 2025 - i.e. 7 full calendar weeks. And that before, during, and or even after Trump's comeback to the White House. What does that mean? I don't know it! What I do know is that the US economy is now growing more or less faster than US inflation. So it seems that the US economy could to be growing out of the so-called US stagflation. Which is fundamentally negative and bearish for the DXY . Because then the US key interest rate should be lowered rather than raised. But compared to the other currencies in the basket, the US economy is still doing better - and the key interest rate is also higher. So that probably isn't the main reason - but it's still one. Because the "carry trade" is likely to continue like in the 
USDJPY - although no longer with an even greater gap; but still. No - I think that the expectations of lower US interest rates were simply too high!? And maybe that's why the DXY is rising more strongly than previously thought?! We probably still have "Higher For Longer" with regards to the FED - and that's due to a relatively better US economy compared to the others. Which is also, more or less, sooner or later, (not) reflected in the DXY .107.064 : 2024/11/14 - Last New Annual High Of This Year 2024
107.015 : 2024/11/14 - Thursday High After Annual High 2024
106.903 : 2024/11/15 - Fridays High After Annual High 2024
106.813 : 2024/11/18 - Yesterday's High After Annual High 2024
106.532 : 2024/11/19 - Todays High After Annual High 2024
After yesterday I drew two new upward trend lines for short-term trading this week - and these have proven their usefulness - I'm following up today. But just a quick reminder: We drew 2 new trend lines - two classic bullish ones that are supposed to more or less measure the upward trend. The lows were always connected to each other - and after the break of the uptrend, the last low was connected to the low of the downward breakout. So what, maybe you`re thinking right now? We have meanwhile a broken upward trend over the last 2 calendar weeks - precisely from the w trend reversal formation. Which isn't a bad thing - but it just proves that the bulls can't ensure an expensive
DXY every day. On Friday last week, and/or Monday this week, we broke the first upside trend - from this pov (point of view) it is therefore irrelevant today, it no longer plays a role. In contrast to the second, which runs more or less this week from 105.9 to 106.5 points, until the end of this week. Since the end of last week, this week, there has been a downward trend too. Which is also proven by the SMA trend following indicator, which is set to 1 day & 5 days. And tends to change to blue from yellow. Until today! Today the bulls are taking over the terrain back again - we have +0.5% during today's trading day until now. Anyway, let us note also that we have always had a lower daily high since Thursday, Friday, Monday - including yesterday - but not today. And that's why I drew the downside trend from both highs, from last thursday. And what happens today? Yes - the bulls taking over again the terrain above. And that around the price action of 106.517 points - which was the 2017 annual yearly high, on the first trading day back then. And what does that have to do with today? Back then, everyone was also tense, afraid, and even more worried than today, me too, about what would happen in the White House when Trump had the last word. Sure, he'll make mistakes - he's no more perfect than any of us. But when I look at his personnel selection, they are all like-minded people, not assholes, if I may say so, and we can assume during the next 4 years there will hardly be any criticism from within our own ranks in public. And he can concentrate fully on implementing his policies, the policies of the US Republicans - and can deliver.Anyway, my humble person would just like to deliver by saying that the above-mentioned price actions are the first targets for the rest of the week, and should be defended by the bulls. For bears, pressure on the price action down to 106 points should be beneficial. Because below this price action I only notice a price action zone at more or less 105 points. Which, at least for bulls, needs to be defended until the weekend. But things are looking pretty good again today for
DXY bulls.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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