2024/10/28
Another 48h - The Calm Before The Storm In The DXY This Week
“important us economic data every day starting tomorrow!
will we be out of the w formation on next weekend?”
There is no important US data on Monday that is likely to have an impact on price action. But on Tuesday: JOLT's job openings. On Wednesday: GDP Annual Growth Rate. On Thursday: PCE Price Index YoY. And on Friday: US unemployment rate. Therefore, there is enough new and economic information to learn something new - to have what we already knew confirmed. By analyzing and evaluating their impact on the price action of the
DXY .The "green economic miracle" promised by our German Social Democratic Chancellor Scholz a year and a half ago and pushed forward by our Green Economics Minister Habeck has not only failed to materialize here in my home country of Germany - in fact, the Volkswagen disaster shows that a tipping point has now been reached! The market, the consumers, do not want state-subsidized, overpriced green cars that the average taxpayer cannot afford. And thus driving a car becomes a privilege - as it has been in all socialist-failed societies. The obviously planned factory closures and mass layoffs at Germany's largest automobile company, Volkswagen, currently seem to be just the beginning of the pain: Our German economy is already in recession, and the unemployment rate in Germany is now likely to rise as well as a result of misguided economic policy under the leadership of our Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck (with the approval of our Social Democratic Chancellor Scholz) relies on state control instead of the market. Like all left-wing societies, state leaders believe they know better – to act as servants of the people, of the market, of the citizens. Instead of leaving the choice of production, as well as trade, largely to the voters (taxpayers and consumers) themselves, so that they finance their monetary material prosperity themselves - and thus become and remain a fair, loyal taxpayer.
Anyway, in the past calendar week, investors and traders handled the
DXY above our w formation for the first time again (during Wednesday's trading session as when Wall Street was open). Only within a few hours? But at least! Our learning-educated headline was: "One swallow doesn't make a summer!" And so during the following Thursday we had a very strong bearish selling day. In order to regain almost half of Thursday's loss on Friday. I don't want to scare you - but greed is back in the DXY . Which is proven by the fact that in the last 20 trading days, after the low, only 3 trading days ended in bearish red. The DXY has risen in 17 out of 20 trading days since the annual rise on Friday, September 27, 2024.104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
104.317 points - (2024/10/25) - last price action
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - Historical Mid Term High
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - High While Last Inflation Data
These are the most important price actions for this calendar week!
“The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside.”
George Soros
- Will We Handle (104.477 points) A Bullish Breakout?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Support?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Resistance?
- Will DXY Fall Back (103.104 points) based on the US economic data?
These 4 questions need to be answered - during this calendar week.
So that we can learn something new with the help of price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. Because a breakout price action above 104.477 points should confirm the medium-term trend reversal formation, i.e. w formation. While a fall below 103.104 points could possibly make the bear's mouth water again due to disappointing and/or negative US economic data. This is the educational learning stuff for this calendar week!
During the trading day, the initial euphoria on the financial markets, including in price action, over Israel's "limited" counterattack against Iran fizzled out - and there are good reasons for that! Because it is not oil that determines the current and/or future developments on Wall Street, on the stock market, until the end of 2024. No - the price action on Wall Street is likely to depend significantly on the Big Tech numbers. And/Or also from Trump or Harris. But let's talk about our
DXY : It was an average trading day - even a red bearish one, on which the DXY fell -0.02%. Actually not an issue. But after 17 out of 20 green bullish trading days, at least in my opinion, it is worth mentioning. What's more important? The second attempt from the W formation was also unsuccessful today! Why? Of course I don't know! But I have a hypothesis: “I assume that the green bulls, after just 17 of 21 trading days, after the annual low in 2024, are currently running out of steam, i.e. today! By itself, an expensive USD and a higher score in the DXY seem increasingly difficult. Psychologically understandable! Maybe afraid of your own courage? Maybe it's better to take the profits? 17 out of 21 trading days in plus! That's not bad! Or?” And that's why the US economic data, starting tomorrow, which will be published on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, is likely to play an even greater role! To give the bears credit; to get in now? To encourage the frightened bulls to realize profits? And vice versa! To throw the scared bears out of the market? So more USD bulls go long?For this week, I have also included 2 technical indicators, also due to the numerous US economic data. In order to be able to measure the responsive price action on both the price axis (using the roc) and the time axis (using the aroon). So we can understand, this is a demanding task that doesn't work every day, let alone always. But looking back, at least to date, we have received good indications twice. First of all, a sales estimate, as shown in the chart. And/Or also a purchase indication - which even holds up to this day. Therefore, pay attention to the US economic data this calendar week - and much more on the reaction of the market, the majority of traders and investors on the
DXY .With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.