DXY new target?
Updated
My view for the next week(s) for DXY.
FUNDAMENTALS:
Following the new trend started in 2024 and displayed in January and February, DXY infact did a new 4h and daily break of structure to the upside, giving a clear shift in sentiment. The fast devaluation of dollar regarding the early cuts is being rejected and in the last FOMC and Powell interview he made very clear that jobs are strong and inflation too. They are aiming for a soft landing and they might get it. If this next CPI on Tuesday is as expected or green, that would give more confirmation for the FED to do a soft landing and cut slowly.
If the FED cuts slow the rates, it would give more strength to the dollar and could give us a very strong bullish leg.
TECHNICALS:
Monthly is still bullish.
Weekly is still bullish.
Daily is still bullish.
It did a new HH on Daily and 4h. It went to the 0.361 fibo area and got rejected as its first test. Im expecting a quick dive to gather liquidity and fill some gaps in the 103.700 - 103.450 area which generates confluence with Weekly 0.5 fibo and with 0.61 and 0.70 fibo in this mini leg on the 4h, is also the last breakout zone.
If we analyze in Wyckoff method, the spring that generated the previous to the breakout is giving us a retest which is a nice area to genearte a re-accumulation. This could also be a very
explosive move because it will align with CPI news.
VIEW:
Expecting a liquidity sweep at 104.150-200 in Asia on Sunday. Followed by a powerful move to the downside to reach the accumulation area before CPI on Tuesday. The target is going to be 0.286 fibo in the weekly with the -0.272 extension of this mini leg. I expect to reach it by Thursday/Friday morning.
Good luck to all!
FUNDAMENTALS:
Following the new trend started in 2024 and displayed in January and February, DXY infact did a new 4h and daily break of structure to the upside, giving a clear shift in sentiment. The fast devaluation of dollar regarding the early cuts is being rejected and in the last FOMC and Powell interview he made very clear that jobs are strong and inflation too. They are aiming for a soft landing and they might get it. If this next CPI on Tuesday is as expected or green, that would give more confirmation for the FED to do a soft landing and cut slowly.
If the FED cuts slow the rates, it would give more strength to the dollar and could give us a very strong bullish leg.
TECHNICALS:
Monthly is still bullish.
Weekly is still bullish.
Daily is still bullish.
It did a new HH on Daily and 4h. It went to the 0.361 fibo area and got rejected as its first test. Im expecting a quick dive to gather liquidity and fill some gaps in the 103.700 - 103.450 area which generates confluence with Weekly 0.5 fibo and with 0.61 and 0.70 fibo in this mini leg on the 4h, is also the last breakout zone.
If we analyze in Wyckoff method, the spring that generated the previous to the breakout is giving us a retest which is a nice area to genearte a re-accumulation. This could also be a very
explosive move because it will align with CPI news.
VIEW:
Expecting a liquidity sweep at 104.150-200 in Asia on Sunday. Followed by a powerful move to the downside to reach the accumulation area before CPI on Tuesday. The target is going to be 0.286 fibo in the weekly with the -0.272 extension of this mini leg. I expect to reach it by Thursday/Friday morning.
Good luck to all!
Note
Scenario changed.With this monday PA CPI should be RED, so bear for dollar.
It should maintain this level and wait for CPI around 104.300 to then drop to 103.100 to fully fill the gap.
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