USD projection for late 2017 into 2018
Updated
Logistic Wealth Management
DXY Long term projections
Strategist: Tanner Elphee
We have maintained a short bias on the US Dollar since 5/5/17. On Friday, May 5th price closed below support giving us the bearish flag on the daily chart. Any bullish retracements after this close have been shorted with success.
Economically speaking, this 'super freakin' strong dollar' in the words of Jim Cramer, has been in a mega uptrend since 2013. From 2008-2013 was pretty much unchanged, ranging between high 70's through high 80's. That means American currency has been flat to pushing slightly higher from the affects of QE. Whether this is because of money flow or the inverse inflation effect I could not tell you.
The only thing I do know, the Fed is ready to unwind massive debt balance sheets while they maintain higher rates. Since price has pushed higher throughout the Feds decision to rack up these massive balance sheets. It makes sense that price should retreat back to pre-QE levels as the balance sheet unwinds, which could take many years. The lower a nations currency, the cheaper the export therefor a stronger stock market is expected.
Strategy Below 90 we are watching for continuation to the downside with entries on retest of old support.
Probability Closes above 100 would indicate a trend continuation and the possibility of moving higher.
Patience Either way lots of range bound movement is expected between 100 and 85. They say it takes 9 months for any sort of Fed movement to be fully saturated into an economy. I do believe US indexes are due for some downside. Too many people are euphoric at the moment. I have dry powder ready for a good 10% pullback, roughly 2300 level on the S&P.
I believe that trend trading technical analysis with higher time frames is key. Follow your own trading plan and your risk tolerances.
Lets collaborate! Like and comment! Tell me what you think! :D
Cheers!
DXY Long term projections
Strategist: Tanner Elphee
We have maintained a short bias on the US Dollar since 5/5/17. On Friday, May 5th price closed below support giving us the bearish flag on the daily chart. Any bullish retracements after this close have been shorted with success.
Economically speaking, this 'super freakin' strong dollar' in the words of Jim Cramer, has been in a mega uptrend since 2013. From 2008-2013 was pretty much unchanged, ranging between high 70's through high 80's. That means American currency has been flat to pushing slightly higher from the affects of QE. Whether this is because of money flow or the inverse inflation effect I could not tell you.
The only thing I do know, the Fed is ready to unwind massive debt balance sheets while they maintain higher rates. Since price has pushed higher throughout the Feds decision to rack up these massive balance sheets. It makes sense that price should retreat back to pre-QE levels as the balance sheet unwinds, which could take many years. The lower a nations currency, the cheaper the export therefor a stronger stock market is expected.
Strategy Below 90 we are watching for continuation to the downside with entries on retest of old support.
Probability Closes above 100 would indicate a trend continuation and the possibility of moving higher.
Patience Either way lots of range bound movement is expected between 100 and 85. They say it takes 9 months for any sort of Fed movement to be fully saturated into an economy. I do believe US indexes are due for some downside. Too many people are euphoric at the moment. I have dry powder ready for a good 10% pullback, roughly 2300 level on the S&P.
I believe that trend trading technical analysis with higher time frames is key. Follow your own trading plan and your risk tolerances.
Lets collaborate! Like and comment! Tell me what you think! :D
Cheers!
Note
In the past half a year price has moved lower, but struggles to close below 92 on a weekly basis. Old support is confirming as overhead resistance (10-23-17)
DXY should be about to break the 92 level.
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