Dollar, Gold and the Euro - where to next?
Updated
I just read an idea posted in Tradingview that this is the time to buy the EURO.
As well there is a lot of chatter about Gold being a gift at these levels.
This big move started this week. I believe its too soon to take a position in either one of them. This is not to say there won't be backtests as investors rush in. Looking at these daily charts gives you the perspective to see what's really going on.
So to be clear - the value of the US dollar (DXY) affects the EURO and GOLD - as the both are based on the relative strength of the DXY.
This move isn't over - clearly the breakout is happening fast, it maybe over this upcoming week. However, that does not mean it return immediately to previous levels. Expect some accumulation and distribution.
A higher US Dollar slows down: inflation, and debt ridden non-US companies with US Dollar denominated debt, who now have larger financial obligations.
One thing that is VERY interesting is clear that all three, DXY, GOLD, and the EURO are balancing inside their respective triangles, for a much bigger move. If you have the answer to that - its worth a fortune.
Why is this happening? The Federal Reserve has now signaled that there are at least two rate hikes forthcoming. While in Europe there is none of this talk, ergo higher rates - stronger currency.
Last year there were numerous well respected pundits claiming the dollar was about to soar (such as Keith McCullough of Hedgeye and Raoul Pal of Real Vision fame) Pal wrote on Twitter April 25th, 2020: 'You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a viscous doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise' I can't believe he hasn't deleted this tweet.
When in fact the absolute opposite happened. So tune out the noise and watch the charts for the 'Real Vision' ;)
Expect the US Dollar to push through the what is an obvious trend line and bend it not break it approaching the round psychological number of 93. This is also close to 1.61 Fib at the top of the channel. The yellow triangle is where you might consider taking a long position in either the metals or pairs that verses the US dollar.
Levels are indentified where both GOLD and the EURO may fall to.
As a side note, the US Equites have rallied in part because of weakness in the US Dollar, which rallied at every drop in the dollar - they may have some catch up to do as the dollar is rising faster than SPX or NDX is dropping although the Russell and DOW seemed to be paying attention.
Note
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