DXY make or break for next 6-12 months
Updated
DXY is currently at a crucial juncture, undergoing a correction following a substantial increase. Similar to the 10-year yield, it has found support at two significant levels, marked by the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, the 200-day Moving Average (BigRed), and a horizontal support area established over the past two years.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is situated in oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing signs of a potential upward reversal.
In the next few trading sessions, and possibly even today, a make-or-break scenario may unfold. A breakdown below the 200-day MA and the 0.5 Fibonacci level could lead to a substantial decline. Conversely, if it manages to hold this support, the drop could be a trigger for stocks to surge towards new all-time highs.
Considering the multiple support levels, there's a higher likelihood (70%) of a strong bounce from the current levels, with a 30% chance that the support might not hold, leading to a further decline in DXY.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is situated in oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing signs of a potential upward reversal.
In the next few trading sessions, and possibly even today, a make-or-break scenario may unfold. A breakdown below the 200-day MA and the 0.5 Fibonacci level could lead to a substantial decline. Conversely, if it manages to hold this support, the drop could be a trigger for stocks to surge towards new all-time highs.
Considering the multiple support levels, there's a higher likelihood (70%) of a strong bounce from the current levels, with a 30% chance that the support might not hold, leading to a further decline in DXY.
Note
Bulls are not dead yet! DXY did break below the 200-day MA, but it suddenly found support and broke out of the falling wedge, a pretty bullish pattern. If it closes today above 103.6 or above the big red, it would represent a fake breakdown, and we could see a rocket on DXY in the next several days/weeks.But it needs to heal itself today!
Note
Can non-farm payrolls make or break? DXY is forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a target around the upper blue trend line. If it breaks the neckline, there is a high possibility that DXY will pump to 105.8-106.
However, if it continues to drop, I would see it only as a nice and textbook bear pullback with a target at the lower trend line.
Note
Two rejections in two days. Can DXY find strength and break the neck to push stocks lower? We are very close to seeing the result because if the inverted head and shoulders pattern fails, and DXY is not able to break resistance, we could see a major drop in DXY towards 100.
But also, if it breaks, we will see 110 soon!
Consistency is the key of success....
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