2024/11/23
Another 48h - EURUSD Weakness Sends DXY To New 2024 High
“in addition to relative USD strength, now a fundamental EUR weakness!
was this the top of the EUR low? USD high? or even just the beginning?”
Europe, but especially Germany, is in a miserable state economically and also in terms of attitude to life - everything is talked about badly and is linked to the climate, the war in eastern Ukraine, and even to Trump's former policies. And now Trump is coming back to the office, starting at the end of January 2025. What the mass media's public reporting here in Europe, let alone in Germany, seems to be sending into an absurd escalation spiral, because most of what was reported about him was by the majority the US Americans just didn't buy it. At the same time,
EURUSD has also been under pressure for days and weeks, catastrophic data from the economy, over-regulation, a mindset that is almost fantastic in international comparison. And this fantastic mindset has consequences - representatives of this mindset include Habeck, Scholz, von der Leyen (and also Merkel). While there is optimism again in the USA because Americans assume that Trump wants to ensure that the wallets of his voters and his compatriots are fuller again, i.e. he will stimulate the economy, there is pure sadness in Germany and/or Europe. Yes, left-wing liberal green reactionism - the economy and world peace were better during his first term in office. And if that happens again in the next 4 years - then they will be history, they will have failed in terms of economic policy and foreign policy. Which is what the financial market is assuming today - and the price action in the various asset classes also moves as it moves. The fact that the EURUSD is giving way shows that foreign investors are losing faith in Europe - in contrast to the USA.- Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
- Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
- Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
DXY - and which could be answered with no, yes, yes, in the last week. Because in the first two trading days the price action had more or less fallen back to the level of the previous annual high of 2024 by the middle of the week, after the price action rose up, during the last week before. Since Wednesday, the DXY rose above the annual high of 2023 for the first time into the weekend - at least on Friday.
“I start from the position that every human endeavor is flawed: if we were to discard everything that is flawed there would be nothing left. We must therefore make the most of what we have; the alternative is to embrace death. The choice is a real one, because death can be embraced in a number of ways; the pursuit of perfection and eternity in all its manifestations is equivalent to choosing the idea of death over the idea of life. If we carry this line of argument to its logical conclusion, the meaning of life consists of the flaws in one's conceptions and what one does about them. Life can be seen as a fertile fallacy.”
George Soros
- Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
DXY closed with 107.490 points last weekend. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 is continuing. While a price action below this should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
107.490 : 2024/11/22 - last price action
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual Year High 2024
106.490 : 2024/05/01 - 1st False Breakout To New High
106,130 : 2024/06/26 - 2nd False Breakout To New High
104.799 : 2024/07/30 - High Before W Trend Reversal Formation
In addition to the annual highs in 2023 and/or 2024, inclusive the breakout from the w trend reversal formation, two downward trend lines from the annual high in 2024 are also interesting. Because the price action above proves the fundamentally positive bullish upward trend in the
DXY . And/Or even the breakout of the downfall trend from the first both annual year highs 2024. While a downfall around the two downward trend lines from the bears, between 106.5 and/or even 106 points, in retrospect we must have to speak of a short-term false breakout of new annual highs in 2024. I expect US bulls & US Bears to trade and/or invest around this terrain, more or less, through the end of this year 2024.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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