Market Overview:
As we enter September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is positioned at a critical juncture. After experiencing a significant decline throughout the summer, the index found support in the discount zone around 100.000 to 102.000. This zone has historically provided a strong base for potential rebounds, but the broader bearish trend remains a key factor to consider. This monthly trade plan outlines key scenarios, levels, and strategies to watch for in September.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone (100.000 - 102.000):
This zone acted as a strong support in August, leading to a minor bullish bounce. This level remains critical; a break below could signal continued bearish momentum, while a sustained hold could lead to a broader retracement.
Equilibrium Level (103.500):
Serving as the midpoint, this level is likely to act as resistance if the DXY continues to recover. A breakout above this level could indicate a stronger bullish retracement, while failure to break above could see a resumption of the downtrend.
Resistance Zone (106.000 - 106.500):
This area is marked as a premium zone, where significant selling pressure could re-emerge. It’s a key level to target for those looking to capitalize on a potential short-term bullish retracement.
Monthly Pivot Level (~104.000):
This pivot is crucial for identifying potential market bias. A monthly close above or below this level could set the tone for the remainder of the month.
Trade Scenarios for September:
1. Bullish Retracement Scenario:
If the DXY continues its recovery from the discount zone and breaks above the equilibrium level:
Entry Strategy:
Enter a long position on a daily close above 103.500, confirming a bullish breakout.
Stop Loss:
Set the stop loss below the recent low around 101.000 to protect against a sudden reversal.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 104.500 (near the monthly pivot).
TP2: 106.000 - 106.500 (premium zone and strong resistance area).
Trade Management:
Move stop loss to breakeven after reaching TP1. Trail the stop to protect profits as the price approaches the 106.000 level.
2. Bearish Continuation Scenario:
If the DXY fails to break above the equilibrium level or faces strong resistance at the monthly pivot:
Entry Strategy:
Enter a short position on a bearish rejection at 103.500 or a daily close below 102.500.
Stop Loss:
Place the stop loss above the recent high around 104.500 to avoid being stopped out by a false breakout.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 101.500 (recent support).
TP2: 100.000 - 99.500 (lower boundary of the discount zone).
Trade Management:
Consider taking partial profits at TP1 and move the stop loss to breakeven. If the bearish momentum continues, let the trade ride towards the lower support zone.
3. Range-Bound Scenario:
If the DXY remains range-bound between 102.000 and 104.000:
Entry Strategy:
Buy near the lower boundary around 102.000 and sell near the upper boundary around 104.000.
Stop Loss:
For long positions, place the stop below 101.000.
For short positions, place the stop above 104.500.
Take Profit Targets:
For Longs: Target 103.500 - 104.000.
For Shorts: Target 102.500 - 102.000.
Trade Management:
Range trading requires quick decision-making. Be prepared to exit if the price breaks out of the range.
Risk Management:
Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade to manage potential losses.
Economic Calendar: Keep an eye on key economic releases, such as U.S. employment data, inflation reports, and any major Federal Reserve announcements, as these can significantly impact the DXY.
Conclusion:
September could be a pivotal month for the U.S. Dollar Index as it tests key levels that may determine the next major move. Whether you’re trading the potential for a bullish retracement, a continuation of the bearish trend, or a range-bound market, it’s crucial to remain disciplined and follow your plan. Keep monitoring the key levels outlined above and adjust your strategy as new market information becomes available.
Happy trading, and may September bring you profitable opportunities!
As we enter September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is positioned at a critical juncture. After experiencing a significant decline throughout the summer, the index found support in the discount zone around 100.000 to 102.000. This zone has historically provided a strong base for potential rebounds, but the broader bearish trend remains a key factor to consider. This monthly trade plan outlines key scenarios, levels, and strategies to watch for in September.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone (100.000 - 102.000):
This zone acted as a strong support in August, leading to a minor bullish bounce. This level remains critical; a break below could signal continued bearish momentum, while a sustained hold could lead to a broader retracement.
Equilibrium Level (103.500):
Serving as the midpoint, this level is likely to act as resistance if the DXY continues to recover. A breakout above this level could indicate a stronger bullish retracement, while failure to break above could see a resumption of the downtrend.
Resistance Zone (106.000 - 106.500):
This area is marked as a premium zone, where significant selling pressure could re-emerge. It’s a key level to target for those looking to capitalize on a potential short-term bullish retracement.
Monthly Pivot Level (~104.000):
This pivot is crucial for identifying potential market bias. A monthly close above or below this level could set the tone for the remainder of the month.
Trade Scenarios for September:
1. Bullish Retracement Scenario:
If the DXY continues its recovery from the discount zone and breaks above the equilibrium level:
Entry Strategy:
Enter a long position on a daily close above 103.500, confirming a bullish breakout.
Stop Loss:
Set the stop loss below the recent low around 101.000 to protect against a sudden reversal.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 104.500 (near the monthly pivot).
TP2: 106.000 - 106.500 (premium zone and strong resistance area).
Trade Management:
Move stop loss to breakeven after reaching TP1. Trail the stop to protect profits as the price approaches the 106.000 level.
2. Bearish Continuation Scenario:
If the DXY fails to break above the equilibrium level or faces strong resistance at the monthly pivot:
Entry Strategy:
Enter a short position on a bearish rejection at 103.500 or a daily close below 102.500.
Stop Loss:
Place the stop loss above the recent high around 104.500 to avoid being stopped out by a false breakout.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 101.500 (recent support).
TP2: 100.000 - 99.500 (lower boundary of the discount zone).
Trade Management:
Consider taking partial profits at TP1 and move the stop loss to breakeven. If the bearish momentum continues, let the trade ride towards the lower support zone.
3. Range-Bound Scenario:
If the DXY remains range-bound between 102.000 and 104.000:
Entry Strategy:
Buy near the lower boundary around 102.000 and sell near the upper boundary around 104.000.
Stop Loss:
For long positions, place the stop below 101.000.
For short positions, place the stop above 104.500.
Take Profit Targets:
For Longs: Target 103.500 - 104.000.
For Shorts: Target 102.500 - 102.000.
Trade Management:
Range trading requires quick decision-making. Be prepared to exit if the price breaks out of the range.
Risk Management:
Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade to manage potential losses.
Economic Calendar: Keep an eye on key economic releases, such as U.S. employment data, inflation reports, and any major Federal Reserve announcements, as these can significantly impact the DXY.
Conclusion:
September could be a pivotal month for the U.S. Dollar Index as it tests key levels that may determine the next major move. Whether you’re trading the potential for a bullish retracement, a continuation of the bearish trend, or a range-bound market, it’s crucial to remain disciplined and follow your plan. Keep monitoring the key levels outlined above and adjust your strategy as new market information becomes available.
Happy trading, and may September bring you profitable opportunities!
Trade closed: target reached
target reachedNote
Market Overview: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has delivered the expected impulse, and heading into the U.S. elections, we may see a quick reaccumulation of USD strength. This could occur around the 102 level, or the price could continue its climb toward the 107 region.Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone (100.000 - 102.000): This zone has provided a strong base in recent months. It could serve as a reaccumulation area if the price pulls back, but if current momentum holds, the price may not revisit this level immediately.
Equilibrium Level (103.500): Acting as a midpoint and potential pivot, this level could either support further upside or provide a base for corrections if tested.
Resistance Zone (106.000 - 107.000): This premium zone is extended to 107, where significant selling pressure could re-emerge. It's a key area for potential profit-taking or renewed bearish action.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation:
If the DXY maintains its upward momentum, watch for a continuation towards the 106.000 - 107.000 resistance zone.
Price behavior near 106.000 - 107.000 will be critical in determining whether there is enough strength for a further breakout or if selling pressure will cause a retracement.
Any pullbacks towards 103.500 could signal a temporary consolidation or a re-entry point for buyers.
Range-Bound Scenario:
If the DXY remains contained between 102.000 and 104.500, the market could enter a period of consolidation. The range's lower boundary around 102.000 and upper boundary near 104.500 will serve as critical areas for short-term buying and selling decisions.
Trade Management:
Profit Target Areas:
Bullish Scenarios: Focus on the 106.000 - 107.000 resistance zone for potential profit-taking.
Bearish Scenarios: The 103.500 equilibrium level and 102.000 support zone remain key targets for downside moves.
Risk Management:
Remain cautious of sharp moves driven by political and economic events, particularly U.S. election-related volatility.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.