Another 48h - No Impulses In DXY After Labor Market Report Today

2025/02/07
Another 48h - No Impulses In DXY After Labor Market Report Today
“ambivalent about trump tariffs, it will be a groundbreaking week!
are the bears taking over the terrain? below highs of 2023 & 2024?”

On a trading day that was ultimately disappointing, our German DAX managed to continue its record rally early on Friday, February 7, 2025. It went up to 21,945 points. The US labor market data published in the afternoon did not provide any new impetus. The DAX mark of 22,000 points is a long time coming. Most recently, the Dax was up just +0.01% at 21,905 points. The MDax rose by +0.08% to 27,081 points. In contrast, the sign for the Eurozone leading index EuroStoxx 50 was slightly negative.

It appears, if I'm not mistaken, that stock market traders and investors around the world don't know what to do with the labor market data. "The US unemployment rate dipped by 0.1 percentage point to 4.0% in January 2025, marking its lowest level since May and coming in just below market expectations of 4.1%. The number of unemployed individuals declined by 37,000 to 6.85 million, while employment edged up by 2,234 to 163.9 million." Because the unemployment rate fell - while fewer new jobs were created than expected. "The US economy added 143K jobs in January 2025, well below an upwardly revised 307K gain in December and forecasts of 170K. Job gains occurred in health care (44K), retail trade (34K), and social assistance (22K) and government employment continued to trend up (32K)." Because the US economy is always booming - but the gap between "those who have something (securities, dealing with Wall Street)" and or even those who have nothing (more than 80% of the population) is growing, as Tom Keene from Bloomberg Surveillance always says. And that is the crucial point! Why? Because that's why Trump was elected - and wanted to make politics for US taxpayers and US consumers! And all political observers ask themselves: can he do it? I don't know it! What I know is that the exit from the Green Deal and its claim to promote the US oil industry, that the price, of course due to too much supply, is falling, seems to be working faster than expected. You have to give him that - even if our long UKOIL 4XSetUp suffers from it. Because I didn't think he was going to discuss this topic. In the case of the US budget deficit, we will have to see what happens, whether anything happens at all - which could send the DXY downwards if it doesn't happen. But let's wait and see. Because with regard to the US foreign trade balance, its tariff policy is consistent - and useful for the US taxpayer and US consumer. When the US economy #MadeInUSA offers its US taxpayers & US consumers a better and cheaper alternative to the duty-paid offer. Why? Because if that doesn't happen, then a new wave of inflation will actually break out in the USA and/or the US taxpayer and US consumer will have to be content with less material prosperity.

Will the annual high of 2023 at 107.348 hold?

The answer to this question last week was yes. Because traders and/or investors sent the to a low of 107.500 points over the course of the last week on Thursday, January 30, 2025. Even above 107.348 points - which was the annual high of 2023, from 2023/10/03. From this point of view we may be experiencing a trend reversal this week.

“How would I describe my particular style of investing? In economics, contingent, time- and context-bound theories may yield more useful explanations and predictions than timeless and universal generalizations based on ungrounded assumptions.”
George Soros

Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week??

The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the above this extended trendline of 108.480 points and/or 108.640 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/02 - High Of This Week
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.727 : 2025/02/07 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.969 : 2025/01/27 - Low Of Last Week
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
No directional impulse according to US labor market data in the price action. Probably due to the reasons mentioned above? But that's just a hypothesis! Because I was also expecting a directional impulse today - but traders and/or investors probably seem to be so overwhelmed with stimuli from Donald Trump that fundamental facts hardly play a role. Which I suspect - but can't lay. And so it remains as it is - as I wrote yesterday: On the one hand, we can see that the first short-term uptrend from late 2024 and/or early 2025 broke down on Tuesday after bouncing off the extended uptrend line on Monday! What does that mean? The bears have the terrain - i.e. the price action of the DXY - under control between the annual highs in 2025, 2024 and or even 2023. On the other hand, an interesting scenario occurred yesterday in the day trading session, in the evening of our central european time - while WallStreet was open. The price action, which has been beaten downwards by traders and/or investors since the beginning of the week after Trump made his tariff pool policy public, more or less bounced off both the downtrend and the 2023 annual high.Currently - 2.3 minutes after WallStreet opened - the DXY is at 107.925 points. And it has been recovering more or less for 10 hours - but admittedly also at a somewhat low level (at least this Thursday). Was that the turning point between the annual highs of 2025, 2024 and or even 2023? I don't know! But that will probably be the topic of next calendar week! Anyway? Tomorrow there will be US labor market data - and they should have a decisive influence on the direction of price action. However, let's wait and relax for the last hour of this week - and take a closer look at the bigger picture over the weekend - i will post on Saturday and/or Sunday again. Before we continue next Monday.

With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron

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