DxY LonG Way To Go !
Updated
Hi mates, Sharing daily chart of Dxy for a long outlook in it technical reasons on provided chart sharing below.
So as we can see that after that 105.600 was a strong resistance for price from where after taking resistance price made a swing low of 99 levels and did a sharp recovery and gives a resistance breakout too, And after this breakout price retested it's breakout levels very sucessfully and getting good bounce from there and that resistance now worked as good support for price and now i assume that this retest will give more strength to this breakout and as long as the price keeps trading above there is a strong possibility of reaching the above mention targets friends.
Technical factors supporting this breakout-:
MOVING AVERAGES-: (EMA)
Daily Chart- Price Trading Above 20, 50, 100, 200 Moving Average.
Weekly Chart- Price Trading Above 20, 50, 100, 200 Moving Average.
Monthly Chart- Price Trading Above 20, 50, 100, 200 Moving Average.
RSI-:
Daily Chart- 62.71 (Bullish not Overheated)
Weekly Chart- 66.77 (Bullish not Overheated)
Monthly Chart- 59.36 (Neutral)
Key Strengths-:
Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Price trading above on all moving averages on Daily, weekly and monthly time frames.
Daily and weekly RSI are Bullish.
Apart of technical setup sharing some fundamental insight due to which there too possibility of going price up from here-:
The extended move on the dollar index over the some past weeks suggests bad news for equities, particularly emerging markets. The bond market is showing signs of worry due to the US government's high spending and the potential for a shutdown. Higher bond yields are ultimately negative for equity markets, leading to more money flowing into dollar bonds and pushing up the value of the dollar. This correction is considered healthy, but emerging mark ..
And I would say that these are relatively indirect indicators. The more direct indicators include the entire bond vigilantism market is undergoing. Moody's said that if this time there is a shutdown, they might again review the ratings. The US government is issuing $10 billion of bonds every day. At some point, this tough conversation about the entitled expenses is needed. It is broadly about 55-60% of what the US government spends. No party is willing to do that. In that scenario, it is unthinkable that the bond market will not get worried. And that is being reflected in the bond yields.
If that happens, it is ultimately bad for equity markets which also means that more money will flow into dollar bonds because they are paying so well and this ultimately pushes the dollar up. I understand that for the emerging market, these are the headwinds. But the US is not too safe either because again, there are questions around earnings.
Rates are going to be higher for a bit longer. The Federal Reserve last week clearly revised the dot plots and this time they are saying there are no cuts at least till the middle of 2024. If we put all this together, the picture is that when the rates are 5.5% with another 25 basis probably coming, can the markets be at 20x multiples? By the way, the entire rally was hinging on just few stocks. That is also kind of coming back to roost.
The U.S. dollar has been a bedrock of the global economy and a reserve currency for international trade and finance. Like any other fiat currency, the dollar's relative value depends on the economic activity and outlook of the United States. In addition to fundamentals and technical factors, market psychology and geopolitical risk also influence the dollar's value on the world market.
This is not a trading advice this publication is meant for only learning purpose.
So as we can see that after that 105.600 was a strong resistance for price from where after taking resistance price made a swing low of 99 levels and did a sharp recovery and gives a resistance breakout too, And after this breakout price retested it's breakout levels very sucessfully and getting good bounce from there and that resistance now worked as good support for price and now i assume that this retest will give more strength to this breakout and as long as the price keeps trading above there is a strong possibility of reaching the above mention targets friends.
Technical factors supporting this breakout-:
MOVING AVERAGES-: (EMA)
Daily Chart- Price Trading Above 20, 50, 100, 200 Moving Average.
Weekly Chart- Price Trading Above 20, 50, 100, 200 Moving Average.
Monthly Chart- Price Trading Above 20, 50, 100, 200 Moving Average.
RSI-:
Daily Chart- 62.71 (Bullish not Overheated)
Weekly Chart- 66.77 (Bullish not Overheated)
Monthly Chart- 59.36 (Neutral)
Key Strengths-:
Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Price trading above on all moving averages on Daily, weekly and monthly time frames.
Daily and weekly RSI are Bullish.
Apart of technical setup sharing some fundamental insight due to which there too possibility of going price up from here-:
The extended move on the dollar index over the some past weeks suggests bad news for equities, particularly emerging markets. The bond market is showing signs of worry due to the US government's high spending and the potential for a shutdown. Higher bond yields are ultimately negative for equity markets, leading to more money flowing into dollar bonds and pushing up the value of the dollar. This correction is considered healthy, but emerging mark ..
And I would say that these are relatively indirect indicators. The more direct indicators include the entire bond vigilantism market is undergoing. Moody's said that if this time there is a shutdown, they might again review the ratings. The US government is issuing $10 billion of bonds every day. At some point, this tough conversation about the entitled expenses is needed. It is broadly about 55-60% of what the US government spends. No party is willing to do that. In that scenario, it is unthinkable that the bond market will not get worried. And that is being reflected in the bond yields.
If that happens, it is ultimately bad for equity markets which also means that more money will flow into dollar bonds because they are paying so well and this ultimately pushes the dollar up. I understand that for the emerging market, these are the headwinds. But the US is not too safe either because again, there are questions around earnings.
Rates are going to be higher for a bit longer. The Federal Reserve last week clearly revised the dot plots and this time they are saying there are no cuts at least till the middle of 2024. If we put all this together, the picture is that when the rates are 5.5% with another 25 basis probably coming, can the markets be at 20x multiples? By the way, the entire rally was hinging on just few stocks. That is also kind of coming back to roost.
The U.S. dollar has been a bedrock of the global economy and a reserve currency for international trade and finance. Like any other fiat currency, the dollar's relative value depends on the economic activity and outlook of the United States. In addition to fundamentals and technical factors, market psychology and geopolitical risk also influence the dollar's value on the world market.
This is not a trading advice this publication is meant for only learning purpose.
Note
Price coming down can take a support from marked green curved trednline as it did earlier it still seems positive form till it trading above published breakout levels friends. For better idea of levels you can check also my weekly review idea on it too friendsNote
As posted in update above that i assume that price will come towards to test it's green trendline so i reached very close to that green support trendline and got a bounce from there mates, soon we can see it will touch to target 1 friends.Published chart-:
Published chart on smaller time frame for better view-:
Note
Price exactly taken support from risisng green trendline mates. so if price will continue move up like this we can see a trend of higher lows which will be good for published breakout, Untill green line will not break and close below my view remains long and firm in itNote
The publication is giving a perfect example so far that how support and resistance exchange their roles in technical analysis, for example by this update which is mentioned in description too that prior resistance now support and it proved that price is not ready to give a close below that support and assuming that it is a support nowFor this support and resistance concept eariler i published an idea for better understanding sharing link in this update too friends
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