Weekly outlook DXY (Short)
The last week the price respected the channel and keep trying to push higher but the outlook still with a strong movement to the downside meanwhile the price remind the channel.
What to keep on consideration:
On the fundamental side: the big new will come on friday with the Non-Farm Employment Change which, the last month the result was 20k a strongly pessimist indicator of US economy behavior, the market is expecting a 170k so on friday the expectation in the prices is high volatility, today(31/3/2019) is realeseds the China Manufacturing data and tomorrow the US Manufacturing data, this is important because is an evaluation of both economies in the trade deal context so this results would be reviewed in the price of the Dollar Index. The treasury yield curve is still reversed by few bps, just on friday the 10y bond yield(2,41%) had overpass the 3m bond yield(2.4%) by 1 bp, we need to stay tuned to this result on the comings days.
On the technical side: The price is reaching the upper part of the channel, if the datas are on the side of the US Economy, we can expect the price reaching at the end of the week the blue line, we need to pay attention to the price action in the daily chart to go short. At the same time the area is interesting to go short because in the weekly chart we can see a resistance zone: at 13/8/2018, jun-2017, nov-2016, jul-2016.
So according to all mentioned above, I hope that the chance the price hits the upper part of the channel is highly probable, but once it is touched, look for the short.
Source:
cnbc.com/2019/03/29/data-could-end-or-defend-recession-fears-as-stocks-notch-best-quarter.html
treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
forexfactory.com/calendar.php
What to keep on consideration:
On the fundamental side: the big new will come on friday with the Non-Farm Employment Change which, the last month the result was 20k a strongly pessimist indicator of US economy behavior, the market is expecting a 170k so on friday the expectation in the prices is high volatility, today(31/3/2019) is realeseds the China Manufacturing data and tomorrow the US Manufacturing data, this is important because is an evaluation of both economies in the trade deal context so this results would be reviewed in the price of the Dollar Index. The treasury yield curve is still reversed by few bps, just on friday the 10y bond yield(2,41%) had overpass the 3m bond yield(2.4%) by 1 bp, we need to stay tuned to this result on the comings days.
On the technical side: The price is reaching the upper part of the channel, if the datas are on the side of the US Economy, we can expect the price reaching at the end of the week the blue line, we need to pay attention to the price action in the daily chart to go short. At the same time the area is interesting to go short because in the weekly chart we can see a resistance zone: at 13/8/2018, jun-2017, nov-2016, jul-2016.
So according to all mentioned above, I hope that the chance the price hits the upper part of the channel is highly probable, but once it is touched, look for the short.
Source:
cnbc.com/2019/03/29/data-could-end-or-defend-recession-fears-as-stocks-notch-best-quarter.html
treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
forexfactory.com/calendar.php
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