MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK ON THE DOLLAR
Updated
For the longest time, I have been debating whether or not to begin posting my trading sentiments since the trading community I look after & am a part of is a very private one. That said. we are in unprecedented times, a lot of people do not know what is coming their way. nevermind how to protect themselves/ take advantage of relevant opportunities. So I have decided to help those who are looking to understand financial markets not only from a trading perspective but from an actual investing perspective. So as my first post, let's take a look at a currency that impacts the rest of the global & emerging market currencies & that can help you plan your trading approach over the next 3 - 6 months. But before we do that kindly understand the following:
As a former investment bank trading analyst. There is absolutely noway you can incorporate technical analysis without fundamental analysis. When I see retail traders/people just speak about technical analysis and understand nothing about fundamental dynamics & how it affects trading pairs/executions/decisions as a whole, not only do I laugh but it also makes me understand why there is truly only 5-10% of retail traders globally that are consistently profitable. But enough about that, let's get to the charts!
DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOK:
Fundamental (DOWNSIDE): If another rate hike takes place & MONKEYPOX cases cross the 10K margin in the US &/or employment numbers (NFP) drop.
Technical (DOWNSIDE): Should the above fundamental case happen, trading opportunities can be taken advantage of through the WXY scenario, where X represents the entry-point.
Fundamental (UPSIDE): A rate hike & more stimulus money will see the dollar go up. Mid-term elections being favourable would also send the dollar much higher.
Technical (UPSIDE): The above fundamentals taking place would allow scenario ABC to take effect with point B representing the optimal entry-point for relevant trades.
Let us see how it plays out, as for exact entry points and iterations to this post as time goes on, that will be given to members only. However, that said, I am willing to do analysis on different pairs/derivatives' on behalf of those who would appreciate an informed opinion on both the technical and fundamental sides.
At the end of the day I want to see traders progressing and doing much better but the truth is you need to understand the markets from a technical & fundamental perspective in order to truly be successful as a trader & ultimately become an active investor in financial markets. If all you have been doing at this point in time is trading only incorporating technical analysis then all you are/have been doing is donating money to the market, your broker/s and my former employers in the investment banking/hedge fun world. :)
Don't forget to like & comment, I look forward to beginning this new journey with all of you!! :)))
As a former investment bank trading analyst. There is absolutely noway you can incorporate technical analysis without fundamental analysis. When I see retail traders/people just speak about technical analysis and understand nothing about fundamental dynamics & how it affects trading pairs/executions/decisions as a whole, not only do I laugh but it also makes me understand why there is truly only 5-10% of retail traders globally that are consistently profitable. But enough about that, let's get to the charts!
DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOK:
Fundamental (DOWNSIDE): If another rate hike takes place & MONKEYPOX cases cross the 10K margin in the US &/or employment numbers (NFP) drop.
Technical (DOWNSIDE): Should the above fundamental case happen, trading opportunities can be taken advantage of through the WXY scenario, where X represents the entry-point.
Fundamental (UPSIDE): A rate hike & more stimulus money will see the dollar go up. Mid-term elections being favourable would also send the dollar much higher.
Technical (UPSIDE): The above fundamentals taking place would allow scenario ABC to take effect with point B representing the optimal entry-point for relevant trades.
Let us see how it plays out, as for exact entry points and iterations to this post as time goes on, that will be given to members only. However, that said, I am willing to do analysis on different pairs/derivatives' on behalf of those who would appreciate an informed opinion on both the technical and fundamental sides.
At the end of the day I want to see traders progressing and doing much better but the truth is you need to understand the markets from a technical & fundamental perspective in order to truly be successful as a trader & ultimately become an active investor in financial markets. If all you have been doing at this point in time is trading only incorporating technical analysis then all you are/have been doing is donating money to the market, your broker/s and my former employers in the investment banking/hedge fun world. :)
Don't forget to like & comment, I look forward to beginning this new journey with all of you!! :)))
Note
Last week we saw the biggest US rate hike since 1994 & as stated above, you had ABC play out with 'B' being the optimal level for Buy-trade set-ups. With monkeypox cases beginning to rise, inflation not stopping anytime soon and WWIII being a possibility; I will be back next Thursday (month-end) with a definitive update and image edit on where the Dollar INDEX could now be heading.SAY TUNED!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.