Dollar - DXY - The End?
Updated
DXY: SHORTAnalysis Method: Fibonacci & Wave Theory
Thesis: New Credit System must be implemented
The global rush for dollars that’s been roiling the $6.6 trillion a day foreign-exchange market has showcased a missing piece of financial-safety architecture that world policy makers never addressed in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.
The financial system’s reliance on one keystone currency proved to be an amplifier of shocks more than a decade ago. Yet since then, the greenback’s role has climbed even further as borrowers outside of America ramped up dollar-denominated debt. That’s again adding an enormous layer of stress on markets.
“It’s precisely what the global economy does not need at this moment,” Alexander Wolf, head of Asia investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank and a former U.S. diplomat in China, said of a strong dollar. “It tightens financial conditions, make servicing dollar debt more expensive, and can cause pass-through inflation just when that is not needed.”
As often occurs during bouts of extreme currency fluctuation, there’s been speculation about something akin to the 1985 Plaza Accord that sought to rein in a runaway dollar. Observers discount that possibility now. But one of the key takeaways from the current episode may be that one important currency finds itself burnished: China’s yuan.
The salve for emergency dollar demand that the Federal Reserve came up with during the global financial crisis -- giving other central banks the power to deploy greenbacks abroad via swaps with the U.S. -- has been applied again. The Fed broadened the group of counterparts on Thursday, including some emerging economies, though not China or India.
“The dollar’s surge will renew calls for a shift from a dollar-centric global financial system,” said Eswar Prasad, who once led the International Monetary Fund’s China team, and is now at Cornell University. “But the pandemic has also fractured global governance, making it harder to envision the G-20 devising a viable alternative.”
A similar surge in the dollar occurred back in 2008, prompting China’s then-central bank chief, Zhou Xiaochuan, to call for a super-sovereign reserve currency in early 2009. The following year, South Korean officials tried to get the Group of 20 to consider permanent exchange-market architecture to address vulnerabilities.
All of that was to no avail: even before the advent of the America-first Trump administration, the U.S. government and Federal Reserve weren’t prepared either for a broad pledge to supply of dollars in an emergency or to abandon having the dollar as the world’s main currency.
While the euro has increasingly become a funding currency in its own right, the dollar’s outsized role continues. Total dollar credit extended to borrowers, excluding banks, climbed to a record $12.1 trillion by last September, Bank for International Settlements data show. That’s more than double the level a decade before. It amounted to almost 14% of global GDP; the ratio back in 2009 was under 10%.
Read here why dollar strength is a bid headache for the global economy.
****While the dollar snapped an eight-day rally in Asian trading Friday, the continued spread of the coronavirus threatens to keep roiling markets. In theory, global policy makers could coordinate actions to stem any renewed and destabilizing dollar surge. The U.S. and four other key developed nations agreed to do that in 1985, with the Plaza Accord.***
finance.yahoo.com/news/dire-dollar-shortage-shows-world-120000601.html
Wave Count: Primary Wave 3 (Down)
Target: $87-$77
Timeframe: 30-60 days
Will update.
FMW
Note
There’s a lot of talk that the U.S. is moving toward a cashless economy…at least in the sense that people are using more and more “plastic” (credit and debit cards) for transactions and that cryptocurrencies are becoming more popular. One test of this theory is to look at currency in circulation. If this measure stops growing while the economy is growing, it would be an indication that other forms of money have become more important and are serving as substitutes for currency. The graph above tells a different story: Currency in circulation is consistently growing more than the economy is. (Note: Both are nominal, not “real” inflation-adjusted measures). One caveat: U.S. dollars are also used quite a bit abroad. But dollar use abroad would have to increase much more than the U.S. economy for it to counteract a reduction in domestic currency demand. So it seems the question remains open.Note
Antebellum “free” banking and the era of BitcoinSmack in the middle of summer, you may find yourself with more free time, a freewheeling attitude, and maybe a wild inclination to pick up a new hobby, like spikeball… Or maybe even try out the hot new investment—cryptocurrency!
In short, cryptocurrency is a digital asset that is not regulated by a central authority, in the way money is regulated by the Federal Reserve System in the United States. No governing authority determines how much, by whom, or when crypto is produced or exchanged. Instead, the beauty of virtual currency is the “peer to peer network” and blockchain technology that makes it easier to transfer funds and more difficult to forge transactions.
The lack of collateral behind today’s cryptocurrencies is reminiscent of the pre-Civil War era of “free banking.” Back then, anyone with sufficient funds was able to open their own bank and issue their own notes, similar to the freedom available to a programmer who adds to the supply of crypto through mining. U.S. states that were successful at free banking used secure government bonds as backing. On the other hand, states that allowed low-security bonds and risky mortgages helped coin the term “wildcat banking”; these cases involved defaulted loans and bank notes that declined up to 60% in worth.
Bitcoin, one of the many types of cryptocurrency on the market today, is revered for its lack of regulation; however, this “freedom” also contributes to its notoriously volatile reputation. The above graph depicts Bitcoin’s price fluctuations (for example, from $20,000 in December 2017 to around $7,300 in mid-July 2018). In fact, a logarithmic scale is needed to best capture these fluctuations. (That is, the units are in U.S. dollars, but the distances between the lines can be interpreted as percentage differences; see an earlier post for more on logarithmic scale.)
At the CoinDesk Consensus, President James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed stated that “cryptocurrencies are creating drift toward a non-uniform currency in the U.S., a state of affairs that has existed historically but was disliked and eventually replaced.” Historically, investing in non-government-backed, non-uniform forms of currency has been risky. That said, blockchain technology also didn’t exist in pre-Civil War America.
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Chart update:
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