FED vs. POTUS... who will push the dollar more?
Find out on the next episode of Dragon Ball DXY...
Or we could just guess with what we know now like any analyst. Expecting fed meeting minutes to state what the fed members are stating already, they believe the economy is still resilient and does not need too much expansionary policy, cuts above standard aren't necessary, etc. These statements will reassure many regional institutional investors who put faith in the FED and are confident in their outlook... but investors in other parts of the world who don't like the current leadership of the country or what said leadership is doing to economic relations may not feel the same. It's possible we could see similar unrest in the markets like last week depending on whatever tweet happens to be sent out between Thursday and Friday. While I believe were no where near a scenario where a 100bp cut is necessary, with bond yields inverting and Trump's war on China grinding the global economy, international outlook for the dollar may not be as optimistic.
All the same I've drawn out a possible double top scenario I'm picturing as the dollar approaches exhaustion towards the upperside of its range and supply pressure increases from international investors searching for better options. Previous bearish analysis was invalidated so I'll be watching with a neutral perspective as I avoid the dollar this week. But I wouldn't be surprised to see an overall bearish move by end of the week.
Or we could just guess with what we know now like any analyst. Expecting fed meeting minutes to state what the fed members are stating already, they believe the economy is still resilient and does not need too much expansionary policy, cuts above standard aren't necessary, etc. These statements will reassure many regional institutional investors who put faith in the FED and are confident in their outlook... but investors in other parts of the world who don't like the current leadership of the country or what said leadership is doing to economic relations may not feel the same. It's possible we could see similar unrest in the markets like last week depending on whatever tweet happens to be sent out between Thursday and Friday. While I believe were no where near a scenario where a 100bp cut is necessary, with bond yields inverting and Trump's war on China grinding the global economy, international outlook for the dollar may not be as optimistic.
All the same I've drawn out a possible double top scenario I'm picturing as the dollar approaches exhaustion towards the upperside of its range and supply pressure increases from international investors searching for better options. Previous bearish analysis was invalidated so I'll be watching with a neutral perspective as I avoid the dollar this week. But I wouldn't be surprised to see an overall bearish move by end of the week.
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