DXY The big picture - A triangle w/ a happy face of an invH&S
Updated
DXY is currently hammering out a triangle as super cycle (b) in a multi year 3 waves correction, currently in the phase to complete wave d, which comes as a part of a large "double headed" inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. The measured target of this patterns is roughly 98.50, which stretches somewhat beyond an imbalance created in the summer 2020. So that makes a probable end to wave d and beginning of the final correction down in wave e of (b). I expect that correction to land somewhere just below 95, but it's also possible we get a deeper correction all the way down to the neckline and retest of the support zone between 92-93 - but it's too early to tell. Anyway, just saying - don't stand in the way of the USD here, and even more, throw away your delusions about the EURO being in a pole position to rally. Maybe, deeper into 2022 it will have a shining moment before it's largest crisis ever.
Note
The Covid-19 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant threw a wrench in to the works of market at the end of last week and it's still too early to say what kind of damage it has caused to the longer term picture. From the information that has come through over the weekend it appears as if we have had a risk-off overreaction, once again. The move in the Euro across the markets was very suspicious in my view and I expect much of it, if not all and potentially more, will be retracted. Maybe the coming week already. In any way, I like to see more data as the week takes off before I make updates to my charts, but cautiously I think this can be a buying opportunity. In fact, if Omicron competes out Delta and proves to present much milder symptoms, resulting in less hospitalizations and decreasing death figures then we may be in for an even stronger risk-on move going forward. However, it's early days yet so let's wait for the data.
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