Another 48h - Trump Moves Price Action In Historical Context Too

2025/03/01 - 9th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Trump Moves Price Action In Historical Context Too
“dxy around where it was in january 2017 at trump's first inauguration!
what does this have to do with trump? fiscal policy? economic policy?”

Sometimes I, too, want to self-deprecatingly shout at Donald Trump: "Slow down - don't be so productive! You're stealing the show from us all!" But afterwards I always have to smile with amusement - at all of us, me too, in our so-called West. About our verbal idiocy! About the Russian militant idiocy! And then, as I think about it, trying to find the right words, I might puke. But eat as much as I would have to vomit - I don't want to and can't eat that much. Even if I go to the gym regularly in the morning again. Because Trump is the best thing that could happen to us - he gets us to act. Regardless of whether we agree with him? Or not? That's why he was elected by the US Americans - that's why I, as a non-American, as a friend of the USA, a German Croat, catholic friend of jews, have always strongly supported him! And also criticized!

Why Trump behaves the way he does can also be understood in the historical context of the price action of the $TVC:DXY. Because he was a businessman. And as a businessman he learned to deal, to talk, to do things for his employees with the others. Exactly that, what he's trying to do as US president for his taxpayers and/or consumers. And that is, if i am not wrong, that since the attacks, the political class in the USA has fallen into the military trap of wanting to finance itself with the help of military Keynesianism. In adventurous missions abroad, where they were hardly expected of the local population, they sent themselves into a debt trap - and paid monetary (biggest household deficits worldwide), material (biggest trade balance deficit worldwide), and even with the lives of their soldiers.Instead of organizing peace negotiations in a civilized way: "Because before war is after peace - and after peace is before war! Which is why we should preserve peace - and not war! For whatever pretext, which can usually be settled verbally between civilized people!" Which is why I also criticize Trump in a statement that the EU is 'screwing' America, as he smugly remarked in passing last week. because with +25% US tariffs on everything that was to be sold from the EU to the USA, he once again demonstrated his determination. Which is why I also criticize Trump in a statement that the EU is 'screwing' America, as he smugly remarked in passing last week. Politico EU published a very good article with, among other things, and/or the following words: "Although the U.S. supported a united Europe after World War II within a strategic plan to create a democratic bulwark against the Soviet Union, Trump offered a different account: “The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States,” he said. “That’s the purpose of it. They have done a good job of it, but now I am president.” For European leaders who crossed a line. The EU wasn’t formed to screw anyone," retorted Polish PM Donald Tusk in a post on X. "Quite the opposite. It was formed to maintain peace, to build respect among our nations, to create free and fair trade, and to strengthen our transatlantic friendship. As simple as that." Don`t understand me wrong at this point, please. Tariffs are fundamentally a legitimate means! No question? But make the EU, i.e. us Europeans, responsible for this? No! And here I see the rabbit buried in the pepper! Because the cause was and is to be sought and found in the USA's costly war adventures - from which out Trump is honestly trying to organize the USA politically. And my concern lies in the fact that we Europeans - or rather our political class - are now falling into this military keynesianism, more than 20 years later. After it had already lost itself in the green key focus keynesianism over the last 10 to 15 years, after the financial crisis. In retrospect, this only brought us costs - stagflation (higher inflation as gdp annual growth rates).

However - it is how it is. The UK host of tomorrow's meeting in London, on Sunday, the 2nd March 2025, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, positioned himself as a bridge-builder between Europe and the United States. In addition to Zelensky, the meeting is expected to be attended by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and/or NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Zelensky is scheduled to meet King Charles III before the summit. According to the UK government, one of the aims is to arrive at a “strong, lasting agreement” that secures a possible peace, while also ensuring that Ukraine is able to fend off future Russian attacks. Meanwhile, Federal Chancellor Scholz is liaising closely with his presumed successor Friedrich Merz. After the incident at the White House on Friday evening, the two spoke on the phone about the London summit. Talks are also due to take place prior to the special EU meeting next Thursday. Anyway, today I looked back so far historically because I thought it would make sense, also because of the circumstances. Because we are likely to be faced with important geopolitical maps in the coming days, weeks, months and or even quarters? It is obvious that the cards are being reshuffled! Even for a simple political observer like me. As well as the fact that Trump sets the direction - regardless of whether the political class in Europe follows? Mainland Europe and Trump come together again? Or will Europe go its own way? And Trump’s USA too? What exciting times! What disastrous times! What lively times?

“A boom/bust process occurs only when market prices find a way to influence the so-called fundamentals that are supposed to be reflected in market prices.”
George Soros

114.778 : 09/2022 - High Of 3rd Historical Bullish Wave After Historical Low
107.564 : 03/2025 - last price action
103.820 : 01/2017 - High Of 2nd Historical Bullish Wave After Historical Low
099.578 : 07/2023 - Low Of 3rd Historical Bearish Wave After Historical Low
088.253 : 02/2018 - Low Of 2nd Historical Bearish Wave After Historical Low
089.624 : 03/2009 - High Of 1st Historical Bullish Wave After Historical Low
072.696 : 05/2011 - Low Of 1st Historical Bearish Wave After Historical Low
070.698 : 05/2008 - Historical Low
What we can take as the decisive front line in the historical context if we want, and I do in this case, is the 103,820 points. Why? Because it was January 2017! And what happened in January 2017? That's right - Trump was in the White House for the first time. But let me go into the price action development in more detail - because the 103,820 points from January 2017 were something like a bullish multi-year high for almost 15 years! The price action of the was last at 103,820 points and higher in December 2002. And not once again during Donald Trump's first term in office, until January 2021. Then why this front line, you may ask? Wait! Let me analyze a little more, evaluate it and then formulate a bullish or bearish perspective based on that! Because the second scenario, if you will, has nothing to do with Trump - on the contrary. Because the bullish price action rally in the from 2022, coinciding with Russia's military war of aggression on Ukraine, was a whopping +18.69% from the low in February 2022 to the annual high of 2022 in September 2022. And this is precisely because of the impending inflation, with an accompanying interest rate hike to prevent a US recession, due to the simultaneous explosion in commodity price action. What the external cause was. On the other hand, the internal politically self-organized cause was and has been green politics under the guise of Democracy, in the name of liberalism. So that the FED, precisely because of its rapid and/or high interest rate hikes, had at least saved the US economy from another US recession after the Corona virus outbreak (which I don't want to go into at this point). But the FED wasn't able to slow down US inflation either. The Green New Deal, which the Biden & Harris Administration introduced on the first day, was simply too expansive in terms of fiscal policy - compared to the Fed's restrictive monetary policy. And now? Now Trump is coming back into play - with his MAGA politics! He cut the green new deal on the first day - which is good for us consumers and/or us taxpayers, even incl. the price action to still move higher. And/Or he is trying to reduce both the US budget deficit and the US foreign trade balance before the USA starts a new war like a ship of fools - even since 2001 massive! And what do most people do in our so-called West? They are against him - against his policy of balancing the budget and not wanting to go to war! Sometimes I can't believe it - as if he has to apologize because he doesn't want to put the USA in further debt or start a war?! However, what is absolutely unacceptable is his statement, his show on Friday, that Zelensky was to blame for Russia's military war of aggression against eastern Ukraine. He could have argued more honestly from a historical perspective! Which is why I have something like a deja vu - like after his election defeat in 2020. When he could not accept, did not want to accept, that Biden was able to gather more votes behind him, and days later started a campaign that then had its absurd climax in the 6th Jay! And that's where the rabbit lies in the pepper, in the US national and/or international context! Because again he is (un)consciously (un)intentionally analysing the scenario incorrectly - which is why I want to, must, stay away from this policy, this style due to the consequences - as most Europeans, and/or Germans here in my home country & country of birth also do instinctively, emotionally and rationally. Sure - he wants to reduce the US budget deficit & US foreign trade balance. But in all his temperamental ambition, the Christian friend of the Jews should have spoken to the Orthodox Christian Putin in public like this, as he spoke to the Jew Zelensky - that would have been the right recipient. Because after all the ongoing political wrangling, Putin decided to march militarily into Eastern Ukraine already in February & March 2014 and/or even on 22th February 2022 - after Ukraine, Europe, the USA, our so-called West, had explicitly refused to accept the election result of sovereign independence of the regions. ”Correct me, if I am wrong - that's how you deal and/or even make peace!”, whether as a private individual or as president - and even with a handshake, without a contract, let alone a signature! Because you can rely on the other person's word - and that is what Zelensky is trying to say the whole time, with his words, if I understand him correctly. By repeatedly referring to security guarantees. However - that's it, if I, as a Christian friend of the Jews, have not also been mistaken in the historical context. Because I'm personally afraid that we Europeans will now make the same war-mongering, adventurous mistake like the USA did 20 years ago, and get into debt in order to go to war against Russia. I personally will not be there in 2025 either - just as I did back in 2002, in the case of the USA, against Iraq.

107.564 : 2025/02/28 - last price action
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Re-Election Day
103.820 : 2017/01/03 - High Of 2nd Historical Bullish Wave After Historical Low
All this US national and/or international political chatter and/or tweets are important insofar as we can argue like a pro`, based on what has just been formulated - that the market, i.e. the foreign exchange market, the traders and/or investors, buy it from Trump and/or the US Republicans that he will do it and also succeed (to restructure the US budget deficit & US foreign trade balance and/or to organize peace). And that as long as the price action of the is above 103.820 points - January 2017, as Trump was first time elected. And if it annoys you - that's good. Because it proves to me, as a teacher, as a coach, as a trainer, even as a banker and/or economist, without a degree, let alone a doctorate, that you have understood my analysis and evaluation. What will happen next? I don't know either! That is decided by Trump and his US Republicans on the one hand - and on the other hand by the market, namely the investors and traders who then buy the bullishly or sell it bearishly.

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.564 : 2025/02/28 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Re-Election Day
103.820 : 2017/01/03 - High Of 2nd Historical Bullish Wave After Historical Low
106.126 : 2025/02/23 - Annual Low 2025
100.157 : 2024/09/27 - Annual Low 2024
099.578 : 2023/07/14 - Annual Low 2023
Nevertheless, let's go one step further - and use today's article as a learning example for the whole of 2025! Maybe even longer? Or not at all? I don't know! But then we at least have something like a proactive navigation capability. And can then decide freely. Even if the price action remains incorrect (either always overvalued or undervalued), because we are all imperfect. Like those who buy the price actions bullishly or sell it bearishly. Still alive? Then keep the following in mind! A price action between 103.820 points, the High Of 2nd Historical Bullish Wave After Historical Low, from 3rd January 2017 - even the 1st Month as Trump was elected back than 2017 - & 110.176 points, the Annual High 2025, from the 13rd January 2025, can be used as a historical bullish long setup - if you assume that US Trump will implement and realize his MAGA policies and the market, i.e. the majority of foreign exchange market traders and/or investors, buy into it. Because in such a scenario the price action should normally bullishly rise - like any currency. More or less a balanced foreign trade balance (economic policy) and also a household balance (fiscal policy) is always healthy - in other words bullish for any currency. Which is why we can also take the price action between 103.820 points, the High Of 2nd Historical Bullish Wave After Historical Low, from 3rd January 2017 - even the 1st Month as Trump was elected back than 2017 - & 099.578 points, the Annual Low 2023, from the 14th July 2013, as a bearish setup in a historical context. If you assume that US Trump will not implement and realize his announced policies and the market, i.e. the majority of foreign exchange market traders, do sell into it. Because in such a scenario the price action should normally fall - like any currency. Because a more or less unbalanced, even extremely unbalanced foreign trade balance (economic policy) and/or household balance (fiscal policy) is always unhealthy - bearish for any currency. Including the USA. When I speak in a historical context, I mean in terms of years - and that is, in this context, for example until Trump's term ends in January 2029. And that is a long time. Remember: Trump has only been in office for 5.6 weeks - I can't remember the days and weeks right now. And so much has already happened - it feels like 5 or 6 months. Which is why you can temporarily position yourself also contrary between the annual high in 2025 and/or annual low in 2023 in the medium term. Be bearishly from 110.176 points until 103.820 points - if you want. And/or bullishly from 099.578 points until 103.82 points - if you want. However - enough for today! I hope I got the learning content across today! That's why, as before, more about the price action daily, like from Monday back again with the help of the 1h price action in the next “Another 48h - DXY …” post.

With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron

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