2024/11/11
Another 48h - Breakout From W Trend Reversal Formation In DXY
“the mood is truly bullish - but more relief to be felt than euphoria!
will this jump of +0.5% hold this week? next 4 days at least?”
Gold is falling sharply while
DXY continues to rise, as do capital market interest rates - i.e. 
US10Y . Is it the Trump effect? I don't know! But it goes without saying that the cards are being shuffled and that many people are reorganizing their portfolios! Or? It seems that the logic of the majority of market participants regarding price action has changed somewhat. And/Or also the expectations regarding the US economy - corresponding to the FED's monetary policy. Our course, at least my course, for the end of the year 2024 is set: “the US economy is growing out of US stagflation - which is fundamentally good for stocks. And/Or also for the DXY . It proves the FED's tact when it comes to monetary policy - without the US economy falling in a recession. But things are looking good for the end of 2024 - and also for the fact that US growth is likely to once again be greater than US inflation.”It seems like Trump's office comeback in 2025 is causing a shift among many analysts, commentators and/or online brokers on Wall Street. Someone, meanwhile has become a colleague friend of mine, said to me today: "They are getting out of tech and into those stocks that they think would benefit from the new president - like US small caps
M2K1! & financial stocks 
XLF & industrial stocks 
XLI and/or 
XLY or 
XLP like the most shares of the 
YM1! etc.. At the same time, the DXY is also rising - in contrast to 
GC1! which was known to be the most important hedge against a falling dollar. However, the US yield curve is likely to be essential because it contradicts your scenario of continued US growth from US stagflation. The Yields tend to rise - i.e. US10Y - not fall." However, don`t understand me wrong; I never claimed that the USA would not fall into a recession in 2025. I'll think about that in 2025 - also here at this point (Another 48h - DXY ...). But for the rest of this year 2024 the future is looking bright…
“We start with the assumption that the stock market is always wrong, so that if you copy everybody else on Wall Street you're doomed to do poorly.”
George Soros
115.110 points : 2001/09/11 - High Before 911 (2001)
114.778 points : 2022/09/28 - Annual High 2022
112.200 points : 2001/09/17 - Low After 911 (2001)
107.348 points : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.517 points : 2024/04/16 - Annual High 2024
104.951 points : 2024/11/09 - last price action
102.979 points : 2020/03/23 - High While Coronavirus Outbreak
100.157 points : 2024/09/27 - Annual Low 2024
99.578 points : 2023/07/14 - Annual Low 2023
94.650 points : 2020/03/06 - Low While Coronavirus Outbreak
94.629 points : 2022/01/14 - Annual Low 2022
In the historical context, 2 scenarios are important, for the USA, for the
DXY - the terrorist attacks in september 2001, and/or also the coronavirus outbreak in march 2023. Which is also more or less reflected in the price action in DXY . Why? Because since 2001, the USA has sent itself into the largest debt organization in human history by seeming to lose itself in fantastic foreign military adventures, as well as the local ones. And since the coronavirus outbreak, people have relied on green economic policy, even identity politics, under the guise of liberal democracy, which sooner or later led to politically self-organized stagflation. Which in our so-called west, most countries followed. That's why, surprisingly, at least for me, Trump was also re-elected. Of course, only the summarized tip of the iceberg - without losing track of any further details at this point. I actually believed in such a landslide success in 2022 - before the 2022 midterms! But 2024? Never! Nevertheless, if we want to understand the price action in DXY and learn something every day, we have to take this into account - regardless of our political preferences (whether Democrats or Republicans). Which is why I want to formulate the big picture at this point, which is sometimes forgotten and even ignored in day-to-day business, but from which one cannot run away; shouldn't run away - especially if we want to learn from history, even not to make the same mistakes today, to help to create a better und brighter future. Because an extraordinarily indebted national budget is and has always been the nucleus for major disruption in any society. And that's why we should not only take into account the annual highs and lows of this year 2024, and/or also the annual highs and lows of last year 2023 incl. the annual high and low of the last year before 2022. But rather also the highs and lows, of the week of the terrorist attacks, in September 2001. And/Or even also in March 2020 during the Coronavirus outbreak.106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual High 2024
106.490 : 2024/05/01 - 1st Failed New Annual High 2024
106.130 : 2024/06/26 - 2nd Failed New Annual High 2024
105.490 : 2024/11/11 - last price action
104.799 : 2024/07/30 - Last High Before W Trend Reversal Formation
104.447 : 2024/08/01 - High Of W Trend Reversal Formation
103.650 : 2024/07/17 - Last Low Before W Trend Reversal Formation
102.160 : 2024/08/05 - Low Of W Trend Reversal Formation
104.652 : 2024/11/11 - 120 SMA hl/2 Weekly Trendline
104.106 : 2024/11/11 - 480 SMA hl/2 4 Week Trendline
102.334 : 2024/11/11 - 1560 SMA hl/2 Quarterly Trendline
In the first 24 hours, the first weeks after it is clear that Trump will be back in the White House in 2025, the
DXY DXY rose again. And that by an above-average +0.5%. It seems that the mood has turned again - the price action above the w trend reversal formation, from the past summer of 2024, seems to confirm this. The interesting thing is that, at the top right above the big w trend reversal formation, more or less, sooner or later, we also have something like a w trend reversal formation. And what does that mean now? Basically bullish! Because such trend reversal formations usually always have a certain background. What I tried to describe yesterday in our new long USDJPY 4XSetUp.- Will The Price Action Remain Above 104.447 Points?
- Will The Bulls Conquer 105 And More This Week?
- Will The Bulls Conquer Even 106 This Week?
These are the 3 questions we should get answered this week - in order to learn something. What should we learn? With a price action above 104.447 points we would have a confirmed breakout from the w trend reversal formation! At least for a week. And with a price action of over 105 points, and/or even over 106 points, we would have even reached the second downward trend (over 105 points) and/or even the first downward trend (over 106 points) since this year's annual high in 2024, from April 2024. But don't expect that - this week. If we are more or less back to 106.517 points by the end of 2024, then it would still be a good bullish uptrend in the DXY. Anyway, the
DXY is currently at 105.490 points. So the price action is currently traded between 105 points & 106 points by traders and/or investors. 104.799 could serve as both a support zone for bulls to keep the DXY rising. And/Or also be useful as an introduction for bears; because it was last week at the end of July 2024, before the big w trend reversal formation occurred in the summer of 2024.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.