DXY/ USD: THE WEEK AHEAD - ITS ALL IN THE CHART
DXY:
1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside.
- Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be priced at least in the fron end (tuesday/weds) of next week.
2. The 1yr MA and then the 6m highs are the next targets higher at 96.5 and 97.5 - i feel the market can move to 96.5 based on the steepening of the fed funds curve (now implying 1 hike at close to 100% for 2016 vs 70/75% previoiusly) at the front of next week but then we will need a firm NFP beat to move to the next level higher at 97.5 or 6m highs.
3. Dollar index aside, gbpusd is my favourite expression of long USD aside from DXY - profit target of 1.300/5.
1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside.
- Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be priced at least in the fron end (tuesday/weds) of next week.
2. The 1yr MA and then the 6m highs are the next targets higher at 96.5 and 97.5 - i feel the market can move to 96.5 based on the steepening of the fed funds curve (now implying 1 hike at close to 100% for 2016 vs 70/75% previoiusly) at the front of next week but then we will need a firm NFP beat to move to the next level higher at 97.5 or 6m highs.
3. Dollar index aside, gbpusd is my favourite expression of long USD aside from DXY - profit target of 1.300/5.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.