2025/02/09 - 6th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Trump's Tariff Hammer Takes Away Momentum In DXY
“price action has been moving steadily sideways so far this year, 2025!
are the bulls just taking a breath? or is this the start of a trend reversal?”
Elon Musk has invested almost $300 million in Donald Trump's presidential campaign. And it has obviously paid off for him at the moment. Since the election at the beginning of November, his net worth has grown by well over $100 billion. But the critics won't be silenced: "Thanks to Trump, Elon Musk has more influence than ever before - but Tesla's sales figures are in free fall!" Because there is nothing to contradict. Sure, the so-called Magnificent 7 are overvalued in the historical context. But if Trump actually manages to start reorganizing the US budget and/or noticeably reduce the US foreign trade balance, traders and/or investors will probably accept the high valuation - as long as we don't end up in an US recession! And it doesn't look like that today? Nevertheless, I cannot and will not deny at this point that TSLA's sales figures have plummeted significantly in many markets. The January figures published last Thursday, February 6th, 2025 show that almost -60% fewer Teslas
TSLA were registered in Germany than in the same month last year. In France, the number of vehicles sold fell by -63%. And even in California, once an important home market for Tesla TSLA , sales fell by -36% in January compared to the same month last year. Sure - the green boom was voted out in the USA. Which is due to the stagflation of the last few years - which the USA is likely to grow out of in 2025, for better or worse! But what is not certain? Because the majority of Trump voters are not well-earning private managers, let alone government-paid civil servants, from big cities who want to do something for their climate conscience - and make consumers and taxpayers pay in the form of green inflation (at the gas station and or also with the socket). Be that as it may, TSLA's share price TSLA has fallen from $489 to around $370 since its peak in December 2025. However, it is still around +50% higher than on the day of Trump's election (November 5th). On the one hand, the end of green US politics under the Biden/Harris watch and on the other hand, the still ongoing green politics in Europe, especially here in my country of birth & home country Germany, which were and or are, for better or worse, more or less, with the most important fundamental issues that are likely to move the price action in the 
DXY . Because the next few days will set the tone for our European common currency, the 
EXY, as further details about Trump's trade policy and the reactions of other countries to it will be crucial. On Wednesday, the focus will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements to the US Congress, which could provide clues about future monetary policy. Both these statements and Trump's next tariff announcements could have a significant impact on the price action of the 
EURUSD exchange rate this week. So the tense situation could put further pressure on EURUSD and send this cross-reatet into a significant decline should the geopolitical situation escalate - with tariff increases actually occurring.Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice published a worthwhile article on Friday regarding the Fed. "The Federal Reserve's record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its statement to support a pause in the current interest rate-cutting cycle." Read it - it's worth it, even if I don't agree with him on everything. But you don't have to. Because after reading you know more than before.
“What is there to say? Risk taking is painful. Either you are willing to bear the pain yourself or you try to pass it on to others. Anyone who is in a risk taking business but cannot face the consequences is no good.”
George Soros
110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
108.096 : 2025/02/07 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
After the annual low on Friday, September 27th, 2024 at 100,157 points, traders and/or investors sent the price action of the
DXY from the following Monday, September 30th, 2024 at 100,179 points up to 110,176 points, on Monday, January 13th, 2025 - the annual high so far in 2025. Since then we have experienced more or less something like a short-term sideways trend - between the 2025 annual high of 110,176 points and/or 107,348 points, the annual high from 2023. And the fact that we also had the 2024 annual high of 108,583 points on December 31, 2024? Makes the current price action in DXY even more exciting! Are the bulls just taking a breath? Or is this a trend reversal? Because within this sideways trend between the annual high of 2023 and/or even 2025 (including the annual high of 2024), two upward trends have already been broken. On the one hand, the first extended upward trend, from September 30th, 2024 at 100.179 points & 103.373 points, from November 5th, 2024 - which was broken down on January 14th, 2025 at 109.235 points. And on the other hand, the subsequent extended upward trend, from November 5th, 2024 at 103,373 points & 105,420 points, from December 6th, 2024 - which was already broken down within 4 days in mid-January 2024 in the battle between the bears and the bulls. And last Monday, February 3rd, 2025, when Trump made it clear to the public for the first time that he would impose US tariffs on imports of goods into the USA, the price action of the DXY was briefly sent up again by traders and/or investors on a volatile trading day! Why is this so important? Because we can use the high of February 3, 2025 at 109.881 points & low at 108.337 points as evidence that traders and/or investors want to continue sending the price action of the DXY bullishly upwards or bearishly downwards. And that is even around the annual high of 2024 at 108.583 points. Just within the annual high of 2025 at 110.176 points or 107.348 points. So it remains to be seen what will happen to the price action in the coming days! Will DXY continue to rise if US tariffs come into effect? Or is everything already anticipated, discounted? Are the bulls taking your profits? Will the Bears take over? I don't know! Hopefully I will write down everything I know about the price action good enough for you to understand - to get an more better overview with even more details later in the week, day by day, as usual.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.