DXY: Deep Dive Analysis And Its Impact on Other Assets
✨Welcome to my channel. Here, we conduct a daily analysis of crypto projects and forex pairs.
📅 Today's Analysis: Today, we'll be diving into the Forex market and analyzing the DXY index.
🔄 Previous Analysis Recap: In our last analysis, we reviewed this index in the weekly and monthly timeframes, incorporating fundamental analysis based on US interest rates and economic conditions. We noted that if support at 100.883 is broken, the price might start a downward movement. Today, we'll delve into the weekly, daily, and 4-hour timeframes to examine the smaller cycles and waves of this index.
📰 News Overview: Let's start with significant US news. The most noteworthy event is the incident involving Donald Trump, the Republican representative, who luckily survived. This incident has swayed many votes towards Trump, and positive discussions about him are trending on social media. This happened on a Sunday, so its impact on the Forex market was limited, but it immediately influenced the crypto market. Given Trump's support for crypto, Bitcoin saw a 2% upward candle and continued a short-term upward trend.
On the other hand, the situation for Democrats isn't looking good. Joe Biden, their representative, seems unlikely to win based on his debate performances. The general sentiment on social media favors Trump, and with the power of media, it seems likely that Trump will be the next US president. If Trump wins, we might see growth in the crypto market due to his supportive stance.
📅 Weekly Timeframe[/b
In this timeframe, after a significant price rise, the correction began, and the price dropped from the 113.305 peak to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 100.883. It has since formed a long-term range between 100.883 and 106.630 since late 2022. Within this range, there's a symmetrical triangle pattern, and we are in the last third of the triangle with reduced price fluctuations between 104.039 and 106.121.
🎯 If the price gains downward momentum, our target can be 100.883. If it breaks the 106.121 resistance, the price will enter a strong supply zone between 106.121 and 106.630. For more details on this zone, we should move to the daily timeframe.
📅 Daily Timeframe
In this timeframe, I've adjusted the support and resistance levels for more precision. The supply zone between 106.338 and 107.017 is crucial because the price faked out below the trendline once and bounced back up from the 100.883 static support, indicating a strong upward trend. However, it failed to penetrate this supply zone and was rejected at 106.338 without reaching the main resistance at 107.017.
📉 Last week's candle closed below the trendline, but I don't consider this breakout valid yet as it could be another fake-out, with the price bouncing from the nearest support and resuming its upward movement. I'll wait to see if the 104.039 support holds before confirming the trendline break. If this support breaks and the price stabilizes below it, a downward wave may begin, targeting 102.668 and then 100.883.
📈 If the price bounces back up from 104.039, the nearest resistance is at 106.338, a very strong supply zone.
🧩 Given the fundamental conditions and the break of 38.71 support in the RSI oscillator, a price decline seems more likely, but nothing is certain. If I see bullish signs and confirmations according to my trading strategy, I will adjust my view. The market is always changing, and one should not be biased towards a previous analysis.
📅 4-Hour Timeframe: This timeframe is too noisy for detailed analysis, so I'll focus on triggers and key points.
📈 If the price stabilizes above 104.524 and forms a higher high and low, we might see a Failure Swing pattern, indicating a trend change per Dow Theory. If this pattern completes, we can consider the market bullish in the 4-hour timeframe. Breaking the 50 level in RSI could provide additional confirmation.
⚡️ Next resistances are 105.162 and 106.121.
📉 For a bearish scenario, the 4-hour trigger aligns with the daily, and a break below 104.039 would suggest a downward move.
🔍 Let's look at the DXY's impact on Gold and Bitcoin.
👑 Bitcoin Analysis
If the USD strengthens, Bitcoin might see another correction wave to the 56k and 47k levels. If the USD weakens, new ATHs for Bitcoin could be on the horizon.
🧲 Given Bitcoin's strong upward momentum and the visible curved trendline, we can target 130k for Bitcoin if the USD's value drops.
🥇 Gold Analysis
Gold has significant upward momentum and is currently recording new ATHs. If the DXY declines further, gold could target $2800.
🔑If the DXY strengthens, gold might correct to around $2000, but this seems unlikely as gold typically has minor corrections and maintains a long-term upward trend.
⚠️Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this project to you, and remember always to do your own research.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
📅 Today's Analysis: Today, we'll be diving into the Forex market and analyzing the DXY index.
🔄 Previous Analysis Recap: In our last analysis, we reviewed this index in the weekly and monthly timeframes, incorporating fundamental analysis based on US interest rates and economic conditions. We noted that if support at 100.883 is broken, the price might start a downward movement. Today, we'll delve into the weekly, daily, and 4-hour timeframes to examine the smaller cycles and waves of this index.
📰 News Overview: Let's start with significant US news. The most noteworthy event is the incident involving Donald Trump, the Republican representative, who luckily survived. This incident has swayed many votes towards Trump, and positive discussions about him are trending on social media. This happened on a Sunday, so its impact on the Forex market was limited, but it immediately influenced the crypto market. Given Trump's support for crypto, Bitcoin saw a 2% upward candle and continued a short-term upward trend.
On the other hand, the situation for Democrats isn't looking good. Joe Biden, their representative, seems unlikely to win based on his debate performances. The general sentiment on social media favors Trump, and with the power of media, it seems likely that Trump will be the next US president. If Trump wins, we might see growth in the crypto market due to his supportive stance.
📅 Weekly Timeframe[/b
In this timeframe, after a significant price rise, the correction began, and the price dropped from the 113.305 peak to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 100.883. It has since formed a long-term range between 100.883 and 106.630 since late 2022. Within this range, there's a symmetrical triangle pattern, and we are in the last third of the triangle with reduced price fluctuations between 104.039 and 106.121.
🎯 If the price gains downward momentum, our target can be 100.883. If it breaks the 106.121 resistance, the price will enter a strong supply zone between 106.121 and 106.630. For more details on this zone, we should move to the daily timeframe.
📅 Daily Timeframe
In this timeframe, I've adjusted the support and resistance levels for more precision. The supply zone between 106.338 and 107.017 is crucial because the price faked out below the trendline once and bounced back up from the 100.883 static support, indicating a strong upward trend. However, it failed to penetrate this supply zone and was rejected at 106.338 without reaching the main resistance at 107.017.
📉 Last week's candle closed below the trendline, but I don't consider this breakout valid yet as it could be another fake-out, with the price bouncing from the nearest support and resuming its upward movement. I'll wait to see if the 104.039 support holds before confirming the trendline break. If this support breaks and the price stabilizes below it, a downward wave may begin, targeting 102.668 and then 100.883.
📈 If the price bounces back up from 104.039, the nearest resistance is at 106.338, a very strong supply zone.
🧩 Given the fundamental conditions and the break of 38.71 support in the RSI oscillator, a price decline seems more likely, but nothing is certain. If I see bullish signs and confirmations according to my trading strategy, I will adjust my view. The market is always changing, and one should not be biased towards a previous analysis.
📅 4-Hour Timeframe: This timeframe is too noisy for detailed analysis, so I'll focus on triggers and key points.
📈 If the price stabilizes above 104.524 and forms a higher high and low, we might see a Failure Swing pattern, indicating a trend change per Dow Theory. If this pattern completes, we can consider the market bullish in the 4-hour timeframe. Breaking the 50 level in RSI could provide additional confirmation.
⚡️ Next resistances are 105.162 and 106.121.
📉 For a bearish scenario, the 4-hour trigger aligns with the daily, and a break below 104.039 would suggest a downward move.
🔍 Let's look at the DXY's impact on Gold and Bitcoin.
👑 Bitcoin Analysis
If the USD strengthens, Bitcoin might see another correction wave to the 56k and 47k levels. If the USD weakens, new ATHs for Bitcoin could be on the horizon.
🧲 Given Bitcoin's strong upward momentum and the visible curved trendline, we can target 130k for Bitcoin if the USD's value drops.
🥇 Gold Analysis
Gold has significant upward momentum and is currently recording new ATHs. If the DXY declines further, gold could target $2800.
🔑If the DXY strengthens, gold might correct to around $2000, but this seems unlikely as gold typically has minor corrections and maintains a long-term upward trend.
⚠️Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this project to you, and remember always to do your own research.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.