DXY: US Dollar Index Analysis
Updated
Even though we are seeing that the dollar index is falling to around 109, it is still not violating any previous low, which mean the correction now the index is making in lower timeframe is called complex correction (will be discussed below).
The US are increasing the interest rate making investors move their money from higher risk assets to lower risk assets such as (Bonds, sukuks, t.bills, placements, Reverse Repo and others), as equity market volatility have higher risk on investment companies financial presentations (balance sheets and income statement), most investment companies are bound to these policies and procedures which make them take financial decisions in the short term (a year or lower) for the sake of presenting their financials (according to GAAP and IFRS) as profitable, this make them keep a lot of long term opportunities on the table, anyway.
When money flow from investment @ FVTPL-FVOCI and others, it goes to bonds and treasury bills which so called carry minimum risk, this will make prices of these bonds increase, by which it will decrease the interest rate (bond price increase while annual amount received on holding the bond stay constant, decreasing the interest as rate/percentage). this will make lower currencies with lower interest rates start to gain against currencies with higher interest rate (because of lower inflation rate also).
From the chart we have deep crap and bat pattern which indicate a possibility for the dollar to fall from that specificed range, I will expect the DXY to rise to around 115-116 and then the big drop start
The US are increasing the interest rate making investors move their money from higher risk assets to lower risk assets such as (Bonds, sukuks, t.bills, placements, Reverse Repo and others), as equity market volatility have higher risk on investment companies financial presentations (balance sheets and income statement), most investment companies are bound to these policies and procedures which make them take financial decisions in the short term (a year or lower) for the sake of presenting their financials (according to GAAP and IFRS) as profitable, this make them keep a lot of long term opportunities on the table, anyway.
When money flow from investment @ FVTPL-FVOCI and others, it goes to bonds and treasury bills which so called carry minimum risk, this will make prices of these bonds increase, by which it will decrease the interest rate (bond price increase while annual amount received on holding the bond stay constant, decreasing the interest as rate/percentage). this will make lower currencies with lower interest rates start to gain against currencies with higher interest rate (because of lower inflation rate also).
From the chart we have deep crap and bat pattern which indicate a possibility for the dollar to fall from that specificed range, I will expect the DXY to rise to around 115-116 and then the big drop start
Note
you can see here that the the up trend is still in control, the previous low have not been violated (with red line) and the trendline also have not been broken, I will expect the index to continue up inside the red zone and then formulated a reversal pattern that we will be using to know when to short.
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