This is the only Dollar chart you’ll need for 2025
The current strong recovery of the US dollar is largely Trump-related, as his policies suggest that the economy could expand, potentially leading to higher inflation and rates to counteract it. It’s important to recognize that this move since the end of October is a type of euphoria or optimism surrounding Trump. However, once Trump actually takes office, we may see new flows and trend directions emerge.
In Trump’s previous term, the dollar turned lower quite aggressively, topping in December 2016/ January 2017. I’m wondering if we could see a similar price action this time. In Elliott wave terms, we should definitely be aware of a potential reversal. Looking at the current chart, we see five waves down followed by an ABC recovery—the most basic and clear Elliott wave structure. The five-wave decline signals a bearish trend starting in 2022/23, and the current pause could set up for another drop in the dollar.
Always when you track a correction or a counter-trend move, watch for a three-wave pattern before concluding that the dollar has reached a resistance point. Currently, wave C is still ongoing, possibly in its late stages, though it hasn’t yet reached the 108 level, which is likely an important reversal area. This zone aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a key for the final stages of corrective retracement. To me, this suggests that the dollar could potentially sell off next year.
Now, you may be wondering what this means for other markets. It depends on the catalyst behind the dollar’s turn. If a recession triggers it, stocks might also face downside pressure. Alternatively, if the dollar weakens due to extreme inflows into other assets, particularly stocks, then equities could continue pushing higher. A lot of of money is still on the sideline, and is likely waiting for new opportunities, and if stocks will keep pushing up, funds could shift from the dollar to stocks, potentially creating a blow-off top. This could mean that 2025 might be an “interesting” year for stocks, with potential for a major reversal.
Grega
In Trump’s previous term, the dollar turned lower quite aggressively, topping in December 2016/ January 2017. I’m wondering if we could see a similar price action this time. In Elliott wave terms, we should definitely be aware of a potential reversal. Looking at the current chart, we see five waves down followed by an ABC recovery—the most basic and clear Elliott wave structure. The five-wave decline signals a bearish trend starting in 2022/23, and the current pause could set up for another drop in the dollar.
Always when you track a correction or a counter-trend move, watch for a three-wave pattern before concluding that the dollar has reached a resistance point. Currently, wave C is still ongoing, possibly in its late stages, though it hasn’t yet reached the 108 level, which is likely an important reversal area. This zone aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a key for the final stages of corrective retracement. To me, this suggests that the dollar could potentially sell off next year.
Now, you may be wondering what this means for other markets. It depends on the catalyst behind the dollar’s turn. If a recession triggers it, stocks might also face downside pressure. Alternatively, if the dollar weakens due to extreme inflows into other assets, particularly stocks, then equities could continue pushing higher. A lot of of money is still on the sideline, and is likely waiting for new opportunities, and if stocks will keep pushing up, funds could shift from the dollar to stocks, potentially creating a blow-off top. This could mean that 2025 might be an “interesting” year for stocks, with potential for a major reversal.
Grega
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